TRADE in ACTION|Building a transatlantic marketplace

August 20, 2018
Quote tile Roberto Azvedo

HEADLINES:
NAFTA: One year after the US reopened NAFTA talks with their Mexican and Canadian counterparts, they claim that they are close to a deal- at least with their Mexican counterparts. Talks are intensifying but neither side has committed to a deadline.
US:  In an ongoing dispute with Turkey over the detention of a US pastor, President Trump announced a tariff increase on Turkish steel and aluminum on August 10th. Following the announcement, in an op-ed in the New York Times,  President Erdogan warned that U.S. sanctions against Turkey would endanger the NATO alliance and called for a boycott of US electronics in retaliation. On August 15th, Turkey announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods from cars to alcohol.
EU: On August 15th italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte declared a 12 month state of emergency in the Liguria region in response to the Morandi Bridge Collapse. The bridge disaster has also incited political conflict, with Matteo Salvini and eurosceptics in Italy’s coalition government to blaming EU spending limits, while others point to local and national officers of the Five Star Movement, who had opposed past plans to expand Genoa’s highway network.
Brexit: British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the risk of a no deal has been increasing, and called on the EU to change its approach on Brexit. Negotiations are due to resume on August 16th after a three-week gap. The pro-Brexit wing of the Conservative party are drafting a policy paper in favor of a “no-deal” Brexit to challenge Theresa May’s proposals for a soft Brexit.

UPCOMING:
US-CHINA: Starting next Monday, the Trump administration will hear from roughly 370 witnesses in order to fine tune list of $200 billion in Chinese imports that will likely soon face tariffs as high as 25 percent. Next week, US tariffs on an additional $16 billion of Chinese products are scheduled to take effect (on top of the already implemented $34 billion).
Bloomberg reports that China will send Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen to the U.S. for low-level talks in late August.  
EU-US: Also on Monday, a small delegation of European trade experts will travel to DC for preliminary talks with their US counterparts to set the agenda for further talks following the Juncker- Trump meeting in late July that ended with them agreeing on the need for a deepening of the transatlantic economic relationship.


SPOTLIGHT:

Can Lowering Trade Barriers Fuel American Energy Exports to Europe? 
by Barbara C. Matthews, Earl Anthony Wayne, and Richard Morningstar
In the July 25 US-EU Joint Statement, S President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker gave special attention to strengthening “strategic cooperation with respect to energy,” adding  that the “European Union wants to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to diversify its energy supply.” In recent years, the United States’ increased natural gas production has provided new options for potential US energy supply to Europe, beyond emergency supply situations. A shift in the US regulatory framework can help reduce costs of US imports and can build confidence in the overall trade relationship. Read more about transatlantic LNG trade here.


TRADE
Official Remarks: U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross Statement on President Trump’s Decision to Impose an Additional Tariff on Imported Steel US Department of Commerce
News: Turkey to Boycott U.S. Electronics in Retaliation Against Sanctions David Gauthier-Williams,  The Wall Street Journal
Analysis: China’s $60 Billion Tariff Announcement Chad Brown, Zhiyao Lu, and Jeffrey Schott,  Peterson Institute for International Economics
Report: New Tariffs Tax Economic Prospects of Tree Nut and Fruit Industries Jeff Goettsch, University of California Agricultural Issues Center
Analysis: Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits? Mary Amiti, Mi Dai, Robert C. Feenstra, and John Romalis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Opinion: Trump and the Use and Misuse of US Sanctions Staff, Financial Times
News: USA Reaps more than $1.4 Billion from Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Report Finds Stephanie Dhua and Kayla Tausche, CNBC
News: US Stocks Fall as Trade Tensions Persist Ben St. Clair and Amrith Ramkumar The Wall Street Journal
News:  GOP Senator to try to Rein in Trump on Tariffs Jordain Carney, The Hill
Analysis: Trump’s Tariffs Prove Tougher Obstacle than China Expected, Financial Times
Opinion:  Both Sides Can Win the Trade War Weijian Shan, The Wall Street Journal  
News: China Growth Momentum Stalls as Debt Campaign and Trade War Bite Bloomberg News
Analysis: Trump’s Trade War Is Leaving the Leaders of China Rattled Keith Bradsher and Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times
News: China Says US Solar Tariffs Violate Trade Rules, Lodges WTO Complaint, David Stanway and Muyu Xu, Reuters
News: Alaska Seafood Industry Braces for China Tariff Pain Yereth Rosen, Reuters
Analysis: EU Trade Outlook Alarms Africa’s Banana Exporters Emmet Livingstone, Politico
News: France Fumes at Proposed Post-Brexit EU Sea Trade Links Reuters
Analysis: German Economic Confidence Rises but Trade Tension Remains- ZEW Camilla Hodgson, Financial Times
News: South Korea’s Leader Proposed Broad Economic Cooperation With the North Choe Sang-Hun, The New York Times


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK

image peak pegasus map

Did you know... 

A 70,000 ton shipment of Soybeans worth more than $20 million was bobbing aimlessly off the coast of China for over a month. The cargo ship that became a symbol of the US-China trade war after it missed tariff deadlines finally docked at the Chinese port of Dalian on August 13th. It has now become one of the first major soybean shipments to incur new tariffs imposed by Beijing. Read more here.


GLOBALIZATION

Analysis: Battlefield Internet Michele Flournoy and Michael Sulmeyer, Foreign Affairs
Analysis: Trade and Wages William Reinsch, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Opinion: Globalization with Chinese Characteristics Barry Eichengreen,  Asia Times
Opinion:  How to Make China Work for Europe Viking Bohman and Christer Ljungwall,  Politico
Podcast: Talking Turkey and the Economy The Trade Guys, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Analysis:  Can Mongolian Copper Power the Green Revolution? Neil Hume,  Financial Times


WHAT WE ARE READING
News: EU Vows to Thwart Trump’s Sanctions on Iran David Herszenhorn, Politico
Analysis: Donald Trump Takes Deployment of Sanctions to New Level Sam Fleming and Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times
Analysis: Is Turkey Heading for an Economic Crisis? Andrew Walker, BBC
Analysis: Trump’s Iran Sanctions are Back: Will they Work?  Brian O’Toole. The Atlantic Council
Analysis: In the EU’s Eastern Partnership, Western Dissension Opens Doors for Putin
Denis Cenusa,  The Atlantic Council
Opinion: Opposition to Nord Stream 2 Makes No Sense for America or Europe Eugene Rumer, Financial Times
Analysis: Traders of the Lost Ark  Ryan Young and Lain Murray, Competitive Enterprise Institute
Analysis:  How Keynes Would Negotiate Brexit A.D. The Economist

UPCOMING EVENTS
August 22:The Challenge of Cyber Security  The Atlantic Council
September 17: A Conversation with Six Former USTRs Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 25: In Conversation with Pierre Moscovici, ECCNY, New York  


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Cecilia Pan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Tristan van Rooden, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

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Can Lowering Trade Barriers Fuel American Energy Exports to Europe?
by Barbara C. Matthews, Earl Anthony Wayne, and Richard Morningstar
 

In the July 25 US-EU Joint Statement, S President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker gave special attention to strengthening “strategic cooperation with respect to energy,” adding  that the “European Union wants to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to diversify its energy supply.” In recent years, the United States’ increased natural gas production has provided new options for potential US energy supply to Europe, beyond emergency supply situations. A shift in the US regulatory framework can help reduce costs of US imports and can build confidence in the overall trade relationship.Read more about transatlantic LNG trade here.