TRADE IN ACTION February 2, 2018
SOTU: A big focus of this week was President Trump’s first State of the Union Speech. Trade was a topic that was touched upon, among other things.
NAFTA: The sixth round of NAFTA negotiations came to a close on Monday and tensions were high. Nevertheless, all three negotiating parties agreed that they have indeed made (slow) progress during this latest round of talks. A lot of the major sticking points have yet to be addressed and will make the seventh round of negotiations in Mexico City in late February a hot topic to watch. Closing statement by USTR Lighthizer here.
TPP: After President Trump reintroduced the possibility of the US joining TPP-11 during his trip to Davos, Switzerland, most seem skeptical about the validity of that intention.
Steel: The fight for increase protectionist measures on steel imports continues, as representatives from major US steel companies submitted a letter to President Trump Thursday requesting a stronger stance.
US-Korea Trade: The second round of negotiations between the US and South Korea came to a close earlier this week in Seoul with the US position still quite unclear. Read more here.
In other news... Chinese Finance Minister Xiao Jie was in town on Thursday and talked trade with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Upcoming: According to Politico's Morning Trade, USTR Robert Lighthizer expressed that President Trump intends to ask Congress for an extension of TPA as it prepares to continue its bilateral negotiations with other parts of the world. The EU-Mexico Agreement modernization efforts are another thing to watch this month.
Our Take on Donald Trump’s First State of the Union Address
Our team of Atlantic Council experts analyzed and commented on the different points and issues addressed by President Donald Trump during his first State of the Union Address, from NAFTA to ISIS and beyond.
Trumps' New Line on Trade
“While hardly a ringing endorsement for change, that Trump did not use the high-profile domestic platform to walk back on the comments made in Davos suggest that his trade views are evolving, if incrementally.” - Robert Manning
If you are specifically interested in what the SOTU means for trade, we recommend reading Atlantic Council expert Robert Manning’s insightful piece “Trump’s New Line on Trade”.
If you would like to delve even further into the issues addressed in the State of the Union, make sure to check out Politico’s SOTU transcript, as annotated by its reporters
Graphs: Latest Quarterly Trade Trends, World Trade Organization
Official Testimony: The Economic Relationship Between the United States, Canada and Mexico, Earl Anthony Wayne, Woodrow Wilson Center
News: NAFTA Renegotiations are 'Far From Being Completed,' says Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Matthew J. Belvedere, CNBC
News: Cars Block the Road to a Renegotiated NAFTA, The Economist
Interview: Trudeau Says Canada is Ready if Trump Nixes NAFTA, Catharine Tunney, CBC News
Opinion: Distance Makes Trump’s Heart Grow Fonder for the TPP? Daniel J. Ikenson, Cato
Opinion: Is the US Heading Back to the TPP? Not so Fast, Wendy Cutler, Nikkei Asian Review
Commentary: On Trade, America can’t be First if it Doesn’t Compete, Trevor Kincaid, Reuters
Analysis: Tariffs and Energetic Protection of US Trade is the American Way, Alan Beattie, Financial Times
Opinion: A Questionable Trade Policy Narrative Deserves Meaningful Debate, Dan Ikenson, Forbes
News: USTR Lighthizer Expresses Wish for Bilateral Trade Deal with African Country, Megan Cassella, Politico
Report: Foresight Africa Viewpoint – The US and Africa in 2018, Witney Schneidman and Jon Temin, Brookings
News: President Trump Hints at Retaliation Against EU for Unfair Trade Policies, Wiktor Szary and Emre Peker, The Wall Street Journal
News: Europe to Trump: If You Want a Trade War, You'll Get One, Jonathan Stearns and Nikos Chrysoloras, Bloomberg
Report: Creating the North Atlantic Marketplace for Jobs and Growth: Three Paths, One Detour, A U-Turn, and the Road to Nowhere, Daniel S. Hamilton, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Report: $89 Billion Lost in Underuse of European Union Free Trade Agreements, Report Shows, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Opinion: Judy Asks: Is the EU Getting Trade Right? Judy Dempsey, Carnegie Europe
News: EU Rejects Brexit Trade Deal for UK Financial Services Sector, Jim Brunsden, Financial Times
News: UK Weighing Customs Union Deal after Brexit, George Parker, Chris Giles, Financial Times
News: UK Worse Off in Any Likely Post-Brexit Scenario, Says Government Analysis: Report, Ginger Hervey, Politico
Opinion: Brexit: Politics, not Economics, has a Forecasting Problem, Chris Giles, Financial Times
TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK
Did you know...that this year's Davos gathering is also the first to be chaired by all women, including IMF chief Christine Lagarde and IBM CEO Ginni Rometty, and features the biggest ever percentage of female attendees, though they are still in the minority at 20 percent?
Analysis: Davos 2018: US Protectionist Vows Matched by EU Calm, Shawn Donnan and Alan Beattie, Financial Times
Analysis: All Economics is Local- Technological Change Hits Unevenly Across the Land, Martin Sandbu, Financial Times
Book: What Causes Poverty? Culture vs. Economy, Charles Murray, American Enterprise Institute
Opinion: China Promises Economic Liberalization, but Talk is Cheap, Arthur Dong, The Hill
Report: Global Economic Prospects: Broad-Based Upturn but for How Long?, World Bank Group
Report: Reforming the U.S. Approach to Data Protection and Privacy, Nuala O’Connor, Council on Foreign Relations
Analysis: The State of our World: Prosper Together or Suffer Apart, Oxfam America
Opinion: Can Big Data Revolutionize Policymaking by Governments? Robin Wigglesworth, Financial Times
Blog: The International Economic Consequences of Mr. Trump, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Bruegel
Analysis: The 2018 State of the Digital Union: The Seven Deadly Sins of Cyber Security We Must Face, Peter W. Singer, War on the Rocks
Analysis: Nobody Puts Bitcoin in the Corner, Kadhim Shubber, Financial Times
WHAT WE ARE READING
News: Eurozone Growth Reaches Highest Level in a Decade, Claire Jones and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Financial Times
Analysis: Brexit is a Cautionary Tale for NAFTA, Matthew Rooney and Andrea Durkin, The Hill
Podcast: Brexit Negotiations Phase 2: The Politics of Regulatory Alignment, Sophia Besch and Charles Grant, Center for European Reform
Analysis: How to Lose a Trade War, Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate, Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate
Opinion: EU-Japan Partnership Agreements Herald New Era of Closer Cooperation, Irina Angelescu, European Council on Foreign Relations
Opinion: Free Trade Pact Would Break EU-Turkey Deadlock, Onur Bulbul, EU Observer
Book: Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy in the European Union and the United States, Daniel S. Hamilton and Teija Tiilikainen and Editors, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Analysis: Davos 2018: Between Optimism and the Risks of Irrational Complacency, Theodore Pelagidis, Brookings
Opinion: On State of American Foreign Affairs. Trump Leaves the Nation Wondering, Gary Schmitt, The Hill
Analysis: A Safe Asset is Devised for the Euro Zone, The Economist
February 2: Can an Internationally Competitive Tax System Protect its Tax Base?, IIEL Georgetown
February 5: What will it take to move beyond GDP? Brookings
February 7: Banking Culture: Still Room for Improvement?, European American Chamber of Commerce, New York,
February 21: World Economic Update, Council on Foreign Relations
February 14: The Bubble Economy - Is This Time Different?, American Enterprise Institute
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Alexatrini Tsiknia, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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