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February 23, 2018

HEADLINES

Global: The final version of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was released on Wednesday, signalling the pact was a step closer to reality even without involvement by the United States. 

Some experts argue this might have implications for Canada’s negotiating position in the NAFTA renegotiations. 
On the EU side: The European Commission released its Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast, confirming a solid and lasting economic expansion in Europe. The ninth round of negotiations on the EU-Mexico Global Agreement came to a close Tuesday, and although considerable progress has been made, it is unlikely that a final deal will be reached within February, as was hoped.
On the US side: President Donald Trump released his Economic Report of the President, in conjunction with the annual report of the Council of Economic advisers. Secretary Ross released the Steel and Aluminum 232 Reports in coordination with the White House late last week.
Upcoming: TPP is slated to be signed next month. The seventh (9 day!) round of Nafta negotiations is scheduled for February 26 in Mexico City. In parallel, governors of 40 US states are expected in Washington DC for their Winter Meeting- which will talk about trade, among other things. An informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers will take place on February 27. The ASEAN-EU Business Summit is scheduled for March 2 in Singapore.
SPOTLIGHT

Unlocking US-India Trade
 by Dr. Paula Stern 

“China would like to be (and could become) the alternative regional hegemon”.

In her recent policy brief, the Hon. Paula Stern, former chairwoman of the US international Trade Commission argues that in order to accomplish the vision of an Indo-Pacific region where democracy and open seas can flourish, bilateral cooperation between the US and India is imperative.

However, challenges remain for this relationship. An agreement that focuses just on the technical sector minimizes the risks of broader bilateral accord and opens the door for the geo-strategic cooperation that India seeks. Given the centrality and significance of IT and e-commerce to both India and the United states, the links between the two nations in these spheres would facilitate a grander coalescence with ramifications not only in trade but for  the security, defense, and stability of the region. Read the full paper and Dr. Stern's recommendations here
                               
TRADE
Official Document: Economic Report of the President, Donald TrumpWhite House 
Official AnalysisEnhancing U.S. Trade in a Global Economy, Council of Economic Advisors, White House 
Official Document: Secretary Ross Releases Steel and Aluminum 232 Reports in Coordination with White HouseUS Department of Commerce
SpeechSecretary Ross: “A Bright Future for U.S. Leadership of Space Commerce”US Department of Commerce   
Official Release: Winter 2018 Interim Economic ForecastEuropean Commission 
Official Document: Final Version of the  Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific PartnershipGovernment of Canada 
News: Senate Republicans Call on Trump to Re-engage on TPP, Vicki Needham, The Hill; Official letter here.  
NewsJapan Hopes U.S. Returns to TPP but Overhaul Tough: Negotiator, Kaori Kaneko, Ami Miyazaki, Reuters
NewsEU Studying U.S. Tax Reform In Depth Before Deciding On Any ActionReuters
PodcastUS Tax Reform to Unleash Butterfly Effect On Global FDIFDI Intelligence
Policy Brief: Global Imbalances and the Trade Slowdown, Caroline Freund, Peterson Institute for International Economics
PodcastTrade Talks Episode 24: The Trump Administration Views Trade as National Security ThreatPeterson Institute for International Economics 
OpinionShould Investors Steel Themselves for a Trade Fight?, Chief Investment Office, UBS
NewsCentral American Nations to Sign Trade Deal with South KoreaThe Business Times
OpinionThe Backlash to Belt and Road, Andrew Small, Foreign Affairs
News:  U.K. Warns EU It Won't Pay Brexit Bill Without Good Trade Deal, Tim Ross, Bloomberg 
NewsLayoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers are Up First, Suzi Ring & Christopher Jasper, Bloomberg
NewsUK Seeks Flexibility on Brexit Transition End Date, Zach Sayer, Fiona Maxwell and Charlie Cooper, Politico 
OpinionThe Latest Pro-Brexit Analysis Has Got its Sums Badly Wrong, Chris Giles, Financial Times 
OpinionBritain’s Road to Becoming the EU’s Canada, Martin Wolf, Financial Times
News: Australia Says UK Could Join Pacific Trade Group After Brexit, Benjamin Kentish, Independent
NewsCanada Seeks Mercosur Free Trade Deal Amid NAFTA Uncertainty, David Ljunggren, Reuters 
PollFedEx Trade Index National Small Business Leaders PollFedEx

TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK


Did you know...  
... that the national US transportation research organization, TRIP, recently rated 10% of all rural bridges in the United States to be structurally deficient? Additionally, they claim that over 100,000 miles of rail lines have been abandoned. Read about the Trump administration's plan to fix this here.

GLOBALIZATION
OpinionThe 5 Big Problems with Blockchain Everyone Should be Aware of, Bernard Marr, Forbes
NewsCongress Sets Sights On Federal Cryptocurrency Rules, David Morgan, Reuters
NewsVenezuela Launches the ‘Petro’, its Cryptocurrency, Racheller Krygier, The Washington Post 
AnalysisFighting Cybersecurity Threats to the Growing Economy, The White House
OpinionFor Artificial Intelligence to Thrive, It Must Explain Itself, Economist  
OpinionLatvia’s Scandals Show Limits of EU Bank Rules, Financial Times

WHAT WE ARE READING
OpinionEurope Needs a Fiscal Union, Helge Berger, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Blog   
AnalysisUS Economy: The Growth Puzzle, Sam Fleming, Financial Times
AnalysisGermany Won’t Become the ‘Leader of The Free World’ After All, And the Germans Don’t Mind, Rick Noack, The Washington Post 
BookThe Death of Expertise, Tom Nichols 
OpinionWhy Sobchak is Wrong and Nalvany is Right, Daniel Vajdich, Atlantic Council  
AnalysisFrance Proposes Tougher Law on Migrants, William Horobin, The Wall Street Journal  
NewsMartin Selmayr Secures Commission Top Job, Florian Eder, Politico

UPCOMING EVENTS
February 23: 
Human Capital and the Future of Economic Growth and Security,
Council on Foreign Relations
February 23: Time to Reform the Jones Act, Heritage
February 27: A Fed Duet: Janet Yellen in Conversation with Ben Bernanke, Brookings 
February 28: Deepening US-India Trade Ties: Focus on States, CSIS  
February 28: How to Get American Workers a Raise: Policies to Revitalize Wage Growth, The Hamilton Project 
February 28: Trump’s Trade Policy in Asia: A One Year Review, Brookings


Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Alexatrini Tsiknia, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council 
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

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