HEADLINES
US: Senior administration officials announced on June 27 that the White House will not propose new restrictions on Chinese investments. Instead, they will refer to Congress’s plans to strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), an existing review body for foreign investments.
Trade War: The Canadian government is planning to impose steel tariffs and quotas on some countries, including China, in order to ward off dumping of steel by exporters trying to avoid US 25% steel tariffs.
EU: The EU-China High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue (HED) was held in Beijing on June 25. Both parties agreed to form a working group to update global trade rules to address emerging issues such as technology and subsidies. This meeting sets the stage for the EU-China Summit in July, where the EU and China are expected to exchange market access offers and further development of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
Back in Europe, the EU summit is underway on June 28 and 29 and migration is at the top of the agenda. Germany’s Angela Merkel needs to secure an EU-wide migration strategy to quell political rebellion back home, but she faces far-right, anti-immigration challengers in Austria’s Sebastian Kurz and Italy’s Giuseppe Conte, who have publicly threatened to veto. Migration is expected to overshadow discussion on the Eurozone budget and Brexit, despite the growing need for the EU to develop a “parachute” plan in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
Upcoming: Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and other products will go into effect on July 1. Later that week, Chinese retaliatory tariffs of 25% on 545 US goods, including farm, auto, and seafood products will go into effect on July 6.

SPOTLIGHT
Buckle Up, This Tariff Tantrum is Not Ending Anytime Soon by Bart Oosterveld
The trade war being waged by US President Donald J. Trump’s administration is one of the major risks to global growth outcomes for this year and next. Tariffs and counter-tariff measures over time result only in losses and trade wars cannot be “won” in any meaningful economic sense. According to Atlantic Council’s Bart Oosterveld, the current disarray in trade relations is likely to last through the summer and fall as the Trump administration has ample domestic political and economic room for maneuver. Why? Learn more on the three supporting factors here.

TRADE
Press Release: EU and China Discuss Economic and Trade Relations at the 7th High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue, European Commission
Official Statement: Statement from the President Regarding Investment Restrictions, Donald Trump, The White House
Official Statement: Statement by Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer on Retaliatory Duties, Robert E. Lighthizer, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Report: Annual Report from the European Commission to the Parliament and the Council on Trade and Investment Barriers, European Commission
News: Trade Promotion Authority to Auto-Renew, AG Net West
Opinion: China, UK Committed Partners in Open Trade, Free Markets, Philip Hammond, Caixin Global
News: Mnuchin Challenges EU, China to Talk Trade with the US, Doug Palmer, Politico
News: Trump Chooses Softer Option on China Investments, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times
News: China, EU to Form Group to Modernize Global Trade Rules, Associated Press, The New York Times
Video: EU Ambassadors Set the Record Straight on EU-US Trade, EU in the US
News: ECB: Trade Protectionism Key Risk To Global Growth Momentum, RTT News, Markets Insider
Timeline: Is Trump in a Trade War? An Up-to-Date Guide, Chad P. Brown and Melinda Kolb, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Analysis: Trump Said Winning Trade Wars Was Easy. Now Harley-Davidson is Moving Work Abroad, Rick Noack, The Washington Post
News: Trump’s Trade War Could Shut Cheesemakers Out of Foreign Markets, Ana Swanson, The New York Times
News: Global Stocks Slide as Trade Tensions Threaten Growth, Jon Sindreu, The Wall Street Journal
Report: Confronting China’s Threat to Open Trade, Ed Gerwin, Progressive Policy Institute
News: Russia Joins in on Retaliation Threats for US Tariffs, Olga Tanas, Stepan Kravchenko, and Andrey Biryukov, Bloomberg
News: China Cuts Bank Reserves by $100bn to Cushion US Tariffs, Tom Mitchell, Financial Times
Series: What is the Future of Free Trade? The Economist
Analysis: Brussels Steps Up Emergency Planning for No-Deal Brexit, Alex Barker, Arthur Beesley, and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Financial Times
Analysis:What are the Economic Effects of Brexit So Far? Chris Giles, Financial Times

TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK


Did you know that..
…In 2017 the European Union was able to either partially or totally resolve forty-five market and trade barriers? Seven of these barrier removals were the product of new resolutions between the EU and China. Out of these forty-five barriers resolved, twenty-seven were concerning the agriculture and fisheries industry. Read the EU’s full report here.

GLOBALIZATION
Blog: Is America Losing Its Edge? This New Report on Innovation Warns It Might Be, David Wemer, New Atlanticist
Opinion: Why Inequality Might Have Peaked, Adam Ozimek, Forbes
Website: World Poverty Clock, World Data Lab
Analysis: How to Survive When Money is Worthless, Nicholas Casey and Brent McDonald, The New York Times
Analysis: An Emergency EU Summit Makes Little Progress on Migration, The Economist
Analysis: How Sanctions Feed Authoritarianism, Peter Beinart, The Atlantic 

WHAT WE ARE READING
Analysis: Cirque du Conseil: Playbill for EU’s Mother of All Summits, David M. Herszenhorn, Politico
Analysis: Ahead of NATO Summit, U.S. President Exhorts Allies to Pay Up, Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy
Study: Outside a Free Trade Agreement: A Conceptual Analysis of Market Access for Firms from Non-Participating Countries, Henrik Isakson, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Video: This is What a Trade War Looks Like, CNN Money
Policy Paper: Preserving Space for Cooperation in an Era of Transatlantic Turbulence, Erik Brattberg, German Marshall Fund

UPCOMING EVENTS
July 13: Investing in South Africa’s Future: A Conversation with Minister Rob Davies, Atlantic Council
July 2 (Brussels): Addressing the EU’s Fiscal Architecture: A Presentation by the European Fiscal Board, Bruegel
July 6 (Aspen): SOF Forum: Working in America/Making America Work Again, Aspen Institute

Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Cecilia Pan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Tristan van Rooden, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email mkasperek@AtlanticCouncil.org with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

© 2018 Atlantic Council

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