TRADE IN ACTION October 5, 2018
Global: The World Trade Organisation (WTO), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have banded together to urge reforms in international trade. In a joint report, the institutions prioritized modernizing the WTO regulations of the digital arena in order to 'harness the unique strength' of the organisation in rapidly changing times.
NAFTA: President Trump presented a revised trade deal with Canada and Mexico on October 1, which will be called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or “USMCA”. All parties have 90 days to sign the negotiating text after which it will be going through different ratification processes in each country. Before the US Congress can vote on it, the International Trade Commission must complete a detailed economic analysis of the new pact, as required under Trade Promotion Authority- which can take up to 105 days.
Trade War: China is planning to sell $3 billion in U.S. dollar bonds this month, wooing foreign investors amidst heightened trade tensions with the U.S. and turbulence in its own stock market. This would be China’s second dollar-bond sale in a year, but only its third since 2004. In other news, Vice President Pence accused China of trying to undermine President Trump and meddle in US elections.
World Bank/IMF: The Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be holding their Annual Meetings to discuss a range of issues related to poverty reduction, international economic development and finance. This year's events will take place in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, from October 8-14, 2018.
Meet the New NAFTA: The United States-Mexico -Canada Agreement
By Ashish Kumar Sen
Ashish Kumar Sen of the New Atlanticist reports on the new NAFTA otherwise known as USMCA, featuring initial reactions and analysis from various Atlantic Council experts including Bart Oosterveld and Marie Kasperek of the Global Business and Economics Program. Both seem to agree that while the deal may seem like a victory for the US, Canada does not seem to lose much either despite the opening up of the Canadian dairy market. For more insight click here.
A Modernized NAFTA
By Ashish Kumar Sen
New Atlanticist’s Ashish Kumar Sen in conversation with Atlantic Council non-resident senior fellow with the Global Business and Economics Program, Earl Anthony Wayne discuss the significance of the renegotiated NAFTA deal, newly dubbed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Wayne particularly notes how USMCA addresses the need to modernize the trilateral agreement given the changes in global trade partnerships and the investment environment since the 1990s. Read more here.
Official Press Release: President Donald J. Trump Secures A Modern, Rebalanced Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, The White House
Graphic: Trump’s ‘Historic’ Trade Deal: How Different Is It From Nafta? Shawn Donnan, Andrew Mayeda, Jenny Leonard and Jeremy C.F. Lin, Bloomberg
News: Ten Things to Know About the Nafta Deal, William Mauldin, Wall Street Journal
Podcast: Experts Question Trump's Strategy To Reach Revised NAFTA Deal, NPR
Analysis: New Trade Pact Spares U.S. Automakers From Tariffs but Adds Restrictions, Chester Dawson and Adrienne Roberts, Wall Street Journal
Opinion: A New NAFTA Relief, Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
News: US Trade Deficit Widens to $53 Billion as Soybean Exports Plummet amid China Trade Battle, Jeff Cox, CNBC
Analysis: Pence Takes Aim at China, David A. Wemer, Atlantic Council
Analysis: Trump’s New Loyalty Test: Don’t Make Trade Deal with China, Luiza CH. Savage, Adam Behsudi, Alexander Panetta and Lauren Gardner, Politico
Interview: Can This Man Stop a Trade War?, Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics
Transcript: NPR's Interview With China's Ambassador To The U.S., NPR
Analysis: Epic Airbus-Boeing Fight Signals Long U.S.-China Trade War Ahead, Enda Curran, Shawn Donnan and Bryce Baschuk, Bloomberg
News:Chinese Investments in the US Shrink 92 Per Cent as Deals Come Under Greater Scrutiny Amid Trade War, Laura He, South China Morning Post
Opinion: Asia’s Trade Problems Run Deeper Than Tariffs, Frederic Neumann, Nikkei Asian Review
Analysis: Is the US-China Trade War About to Become a Currency War? Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy
News: The WTO, the World Bank, and the IMF Have Formed a Dream Team to Counter Trump’s Trade War, Prabhjote Gill, Business Insider India
Opinion: The Biggest Risk That Markets Ignore, Noah Smith, Bloomberg
News: WTO Sees Tech Adding One Third to Annual Trade By 2030, Tom Miles, Reuters
Analysis: Where is Global Trade and Investment Governance Headed? A Tour d’Horizon, Peter Draper, German Development Institute
Analysis: Why Europeans May Not Want a US Trade Deal, Julia Rone, The Washington Post
TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK:
Did you know… that on December 30, 2004 the World Bank committed $250 million for the countries, primarily Indonesia, that were impacted by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami caused by a 9.0 magnitude earthquake? On September 28, 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia suffered another large quake-tsunami, displacing hundreds of thousands. As the World Bank annual meetings, to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, approach they have put together an interactive timeline detailing Indonesia-World Bank relations. Check it out here.
Speech: World Trade Report Launch 2018 Remarks by DG Azevedo, World Trade Organization
Analysis: IMF Chief Lagarde Says Economic Outlook is Dimming, Josh Zumbrun, Wall Street Journal
Policy Paper: Reinvigorating Trade and Inclusive Growth, International Monetary Fund
Opinion: The World’s First Immigration Economy, Salvatore Babones, Foreign Policy
Analysis: Why Trade Can Save the Planet, If We Do It Better, Erik Solheim, United Nations Environment
Analysis: Health Without Wealth: The Worrying Paradox of Modern Medical Miracles, Thomas J. Bollyky, Foreign Affairs
Analysis: From Brexit to WTO, How Special Migration Rules in Free Trade Deals Work, Liliana Harding, Business Standard
WHAT WE ARE READING:
Analysis:Firing Back at Trump in the Trade War With Tariffs Aimed at His Base, Eduardo Porter and Karl Russell, New York Times
Analysis: Behind the Scenes with Trump and Trudeau: How They Made Nice, Alexander Panetta, Politico
Fact Sheet: United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Fact Sheet Rebalancing Trade to Support Manufacturing, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Analysis: As Trump Settles Scores With China, American Farmers Pick Up Tab , Shruti Singh and Tatiana Freitas, Bloomberg
Report: Making China Great Again, Evan Osnos, The New Yorker
Opinion: A No-Deal Brexit Will Destroy the British Economy, Simon Tilford, Foreign Policy
Opinion: Amazon’s $15 Minimum Wage Will Change How Americans Think About Work, Conor Sen, Bloomberg
Interactive Map: The Opportunity Atlas - Which Neighborhoods in America Offer Children the Best Chance to Rise Out of Poverty?, The Opportunity Atlas
October 9: The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region, Atlantic Council
October 10: Managing Cyber Risks to Protect Financial Stability, Atlantic Council
October 17: Protecting US Critical Infrastructure, Atlantic Council
October 18: Championing the Frontlines of Freedom: Erasing the “Grey Zone,” Atlantic Council
October 9: US Economic Policy with Kevin Hassett, Council on Foreign Relations
October 10: The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Brookings Institute
October 11: Third Annual Wenger Distinguished Lecture on Trade to Feature Rufus Yerxa, President of the National Foreign Trade Council, American University Washington College of Law
November 5-8: DC Fintech Week, Georgetown University's Institute of International Economic Law
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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