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September 28, 2017

THIS WEEK IN TRADE
This week saw the reelection of Angela Merkel as German Chancellor, with the introduction of the right wing AfD (Alternative for Germany) to the Bundestag as the most radical change. 

On Friday, British PM Theresa May spoke in Florence, outlining more details on Brexit, while Brexit negotiations entered a new round. In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron held a passionate speech on the future of Europe, emphasizing the need for further integration. Meanwhile, the third round of NAFTA negotiations continued in Ottawa. The World Trade Organisation additionally held a WTO Public Forum to discuss the benefits and challenges provided by trade.

WHAT TO WATCH

European leaders convene for the Tallinn Digital Summit today, September 29th to discuss further plans for digital innovation and the promotion of the EU as a digital leader.  The next round of Nafta negotiations will take place in Washington DC in less than two weeks in an effort to finish the agreement by the end of the year.

SPOTLIGHT

Interpreting the German Elections 


Despite significant losses, Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) placed first in the September 24 parliamentary election, securing a historic fourth term for the Chancellor. But it remains unclear with which coalition Merkel will govern. Her choice of partner will shape the new German government’s course in several areas of key interest to the United States. This election has seen the ascend of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), who will enter Parliament with 12.6 percent of the vote due to still substantial anti-immigration feelings, eurosceptism, and a strong protest vote.

What does the strong protest vote mean for the future of German politics? What does the election mean for transatlantic relations? Does the result impact on the German economy? Is Germany the latest victim of the nationalist wave that has descended on Europe? Where do we go from here? For answers to these questions and more, check out Atlantic Council coverage of the German elections:
Opportunity Knocks with a new German Government? Jörn Fleck & Tyson Barker
Merkel’s Re-Election Seen as Good News for Transatlantic Ties Interview with Germany’s Ambassador to the United States, Peter Wittig
An Economic Roadmap for Germany, Daniel Andrich 
Dealing with the Far-Right in Germany, Ashish Kumar Sen 
German Election Shows Europe’s Nationalist Wave Has Not Crested, Interview with Ambassador Daniel Fried

TRADE
Report: U.S.- Produced Value in U.S. Imports from NAFTA, Anne Flatness and Chris Rasmussen, US Department of Commerce 
Opinion: These NAFTA Rules are Killing our Jobs, Wilbur Ross, Washington Post
Opinion: On NAFTA, The Trump Administration Is Using The Wrong Yardstick, Phil Levy, Forbes 
Report: B|Brief: NAFTA Renegotiation:State of Play and a Look Ahead, Michael McKeon, Bertelsmann Foundation
Opinion: A Nafta Exit Would Be a Rotten Deal, Thomas Donohue, Wall Street Journal
Analysis: NAFTA Doesn’t Need a Senseless Sunset, Jeffrey Schott, Peterson Institute for International Economics
News: Nafta Negotiators Turn to Thorny Issue as Ministers Arrive, Eric Martin and Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg
Interview: A Conversation with Secretary Luis Videgaray Caso on the Future of U.S.-Mexican Relations, Council on Foreign Relations
News: Commerce Bombardier Ruling Sets Stage for NAFTA Round 3 Finale, Megan Cassella, Politico  
News: White House Softens Trade Stance as Tax Reform Fight Approaches: 'We Need the Votes There', Kayla Tausche, CNBC
Paper: TTIP Negotiations, Policy Convergence, and the Transatlantic Digital Economy, Gael Le Roux, Cambridge University Press
Video: U.K.'s May Sees 'Concrete Progress' in Brexit Talks, Bloomberg
NewsUK and EU Hail Progress in Latest Round of Brexit Talks, Michael Peel, George Parker, Katie Martin, Financial Times 
News: Labour (UK) Unveils Official Brexit Position, But no Mention of Single Market, Peter Walker, The Guardian
Analysis: Business Needs Clear Progress from Brexit Negotiators, Garrett Workman, US Chamber of Commerce 
Analysis: Brexit and Energy: A Choice Between Economics and Sovereignty, Sir Philip Lowe, Centre for European Reform
Analysis: Is the Eurozone Really out of the Woods? Simon Tilford, Centre for European Reform 
Opinion: Euro Area: When Horizons Exceed Red Lines, Markus Hill and Jurgen Matthes, Cologne Institute for Economic Research


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK



GLOBALIZATION
Report: Role of Trade Key in Achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals, World Trade Organisation 
Report: Public Forum Looks into How to Create an Open and Inclusive Trading System for All, World Trade Organisation 
Blog: Structural Reforms Give Biggest Help To Lagging Countries, Angana Banerji and Christian Ebeke, International Monetary Fund
Analysis: The Macro Risk-Reward Tradeoff: How to Balance Stability and Growth, Hamilton Place Strategies 
Analysis: Big Tech is Under Increasing Pressure as London Bans Uber, The Economist
Analysis: Is International Economic Law International?, Simon Lester, World Trade Law
Analysis: These are the World's 10 Most Competitive Economies, Alex Gray, World Economic Forum
Analysis: Five Facts on What Trade and Technology Really Mean for Jobs, Marc Bacchetta, Robert Koopman and Jose-Antonio Monteiro, World Economic Forum 
Analysis: What Exactly is Economic Competitiveness?, Oliver Cann, World Economic Forum

WHAT WE ARE READING

Opinion: Florence Brexit Speech: An Overdue Opportunity, Matthew O’Toole, Politico
Survey: Support Grows for Second Brexit Vote, Charlie Cooper, Politico 
News: France's Macron Calls For A United Europe, Greater Cooperation With Germany, Elanor Beardsley, NPR
Analysis: Angela Merkel: 4.0, Jackson James, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies 
Analysis: Germany’s Merkel Clings to Power Amid Far Right Surge, Matthew Karnitschnig and Janosch Delcker, Politico
Report: EU-China Economic Relations to 2025: Building a Common Future, Dr. Tim Summers, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, K. C. Kwok, Liu Xiangdong and Zhang Yansheng, Chatham House and Bruegel
News: Mario Draghi: Blockchain not Yet Ready for Central Banking, Johanna Treeck, Politico
Analysis: Capital Markets Union and the Fintech Opportunity, Maria Demertzis, Silvia Merler and Guntram Wolff, Bruegel

UPCOMING EVENTS
October 3: Economic Sanctions After Brexit, Atlantic Council 
October 3: Smart Cities & Smart Buildings: The Future of Commercial RE in the U.S. and Across Europe, European American Chamber of Commerce
October 17: Global Services Summit: Charting the Course For Growth, Coalition of Services Industries 
October 19: EconNet: A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies, Inter-American Development Bank
November 1: US Immigration & Labor Update: How to Manage the New Challenges for Business Immigration & Employment in the United States, European American Chamber of Commerce
November 9: WEBINAR: Selling Food into the European Union: What you Need to Know as a US Company, European American Chamber of Commerce


Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Michael Farquharson, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council 
Jack Reynolds, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council 

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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