EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Canadian International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, European Council President Donald Tusk, and EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström came together to sign the EU- Canada Free Trade Agreement on October 30, 2016. Check out this blog post for EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström’s take on the CETA.
New Publication – “EU’s Capital Markets Union”
Unlocking Investment Through Gradual Integration
To reinvigorate economic growth across Europe, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, launched the “Juncker Plan” in November 2014. In this new Atlantic Council publication, author Zdenek Kudrna introduces the Capital Markets Union (CMU) as the core regulatory initiative of the Juncker Plan.
Key Findings:
- The EU needs to stimulate investment to improve economic growth, create new jobs
- EU capital markets remain underdeveloped
- The City of London (EU’s financial center) is likely to leave the European Single Market which creates necessity and opportunity to develop competing financial centers elsewhere in continental Europe
- The eurozone needs an additional economic shock- absorption mechanism to address internal economic asymmetries
- The CMU is not a breakthrough achievement with immediate results but an evolutionary development that needs to be sustained beyond 2019
- The EU Commission should increase the CMU’s potential complementing it with additional reforms, such as: supranational supervision (similar to the Banking Union) or the introduction of some kind of joint Eurobond
Speeches & Announcements
Malmström : Commission Needs to Explain Benefits of Trade
“[How CETA will make] it easier to trade and increase investment, growth, and jobs. Somehow we have failed to explain that. And there we must do much more, of course, engaging with all the member states and also for the companies themselves to help to make that case and explain the importance for the different communities across Europe.”
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström participated in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour to discuss the CETA agreement the day before its signing. Malmström acknowledges where the EU Commission has fallen short in informing the citizens and companies of the benefits of the trade deal despite the increased involvement of civil societies and the incredible amount of promotion Malmström has done across the European Union. (Twitter)
Froman Hopeful of Lame-Duck TPP Vote
“We’ve been up talking to members of Congress…we’ve got the widest, broadest support across the economy…all in favor of this agreement… This trade agreement eliminates 18,000 taxes on our exports. And members of congress are starting to understand that.”
Although both US presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, are opposed to TPP, US Trade Representative Michael Froman is optimistic that Congress will pass TPP in the lame-duck. Froman indicates that the agreement has key industries on its side and warns that if the United States does not set the rules of the road in the global economy, China will. (CNBC)
News
United States Still Believes in TTIP
Last week, US Trade Representative Michael Froman has indicated that Washington is still pressing ahead with TTIP negotiations. Ambassador Froman opinions that opposition from the Belgian region of Wallonia on the CETA deal is a cautionary note on the European Union’s ability to complete a trade deal with the United States. (Reuters)
Malmström: TTIP Is Not Dead
After signing the CETA deal, EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström encouraged reporters that “TTIP is not dead, but TTIP is not yet an agreement.” As Malmström has been saying for months, the US election will bring negotiations to a natural pause, but negotiations will resume with the new administration. Malmström also said that lessons from the Canadian negotiations for CETA would aid in making a deal with the United States. (Reuters)
TTIP Action Partners
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Recent Analysis
Stop Bashing Free Trade
David McIntosh, former Indiana Congressman and president of the Club for Growth, argues that free trade is good for the economy, despite the anti-trade rhetoric making headlines during the US presidential election season. While McIntosh acknowledges that wages in the United States are barely moving, underemployment remains high, and economic growth is still anemic, he offers that the next US President and Congress can boost the economy by incentivizing growth through policies that unleash the free markets and expand trade. (CNBC)
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Trade Is Good for the Economy
This editorial for USA Today makes the case that the winning side of trade is wider and deeper than the losing side. On the winning side, trade produces export-related jobs which tend to be higher skilled and better paying than the jobs eliminated by trade. While more needs to be done to retrain displaced workers and offer these displaced workers educational opportunities, the protectionist rhetoric on the US president campaign trail does not reflect economic reality. (USA Today)
TTIP & CETA: Models for Future Trade Deals
Paul Adamson of ESharp sat down to speak with Monique Goyens, Director General of the European Consumers Organization (BEUC). Goyens has historically been fairly critical of TTIP; however, in this interview, she explains that she has seen much improvement in TTIP, namely its positive approach with respect to transparency and inclusion of key stakeholders. Given these improvements, Goyens believes that TTIP and CETA will be models for future trade deals. (ESharp)
TransPacific Partnership – News & Analysis
US Getting TPP Ready for Lame-Duck Vote
Early this week, US Trade Representative Michael Froman spoke with Politico’s Morning Trade indicating that if the Obama Administration gets a lame-duck vote on TPP, it will be ready. The Obama Administration is “doing all the preparatory work that we can…we have been very focused on doing all the things that are within our control to maximize the likelihood it gets approved in a lame duck.” (Politico)
Pritzker Explains the Benefits of TPP
US Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker explains why failing to ratify the TPP would be detrimental to the interests of US workers and companies, as well as undermine the United States’ influence in Asia and leadership around the world. The economic benefit, Pritzker states, is that TPP gives market access that US businesses do not have today. From a strategic or military standpoint, TPP provides greater US interest in Asia which creates stability in the region. (Duluth News Tribune)
For a more, in depth analysis on the foreign policy argument for TPP, read this analysis in the Wall Street Journal.
For a more, in depth analysis on the foreign policy argument for TPP, read this analysis in the Wall Street Journal.
White House Optimistic on TPP, TTIP Talks
In this podcast, White House Reporter for Bloomberg BNA Cheryl Bolen discusses whether or not the Obama Administration can still resolve troubled trade talks to ratify the TPP and TTIP. US President Barack Obama has consistently stated that ratifying these trade agreements before the Obama Administration leaves the White House is essential to ensuring their success. This is a sentiment that Bolen agrees with due to the anti-trade rhetoric on the US presidential campaign trail. (Bloomberg)
The Bigger Picture – Trade in Action
Why Could Wallonia Block the EU-Canada Trade Deal? And What Can Be Done to Prevent a Repeat?
In this blog post for the New Atlanticist, I explain how the small regional parliament of Wallonia, a french-speaking region of Belgium with a population of approximately 3.5 million, could block CETA, the major trade deal between the EU and Canada. I also offer a solution as to how the EU Commission can overcome the conundrum of being an effective negotiator to third parties while also meeting the public’s concerns about the European Union’s democratic legitimacy. (New Atlanticist)
High Court Rules: Parliament Must Vote on Brexit
The UK government’s plans for Brexit may have been dealt a blow by a landmark High Court ruling that the Article 50 divorce process for leaving the European Union requires a vote by parliament. In response to this ruling, the UK government said it would appeal the decision in the Supreme Court. The ruling could mean good news for the UK’s economy, Sterling jumped to $1.2448 after the ruling, but ultimately lost some of its gains after the government stated its decision to appeal the ruling. (Financial Times)
Froman Discusses National Security & TPP at Export Control Update Conference
US Trade Representative Michael Froman delivered remarks at the Export Control Update Conference on Tuesday discussing the importance of export control reform to our national security and economic security. During this speech, Froman also discussed the importance of ratifying TPP to ensure the United States will not be frozen out of the Asia-Pacific region, economically or strategically. (USTR)
Upcoming Events
Meeting the Standards for Trade – November 9 in Brussels, hosted by Bruegel – More Information
Mauritius Trade Conference 2016 – November 10 in Mauritius, hosted by Global Trade Review – More Information
Election Aftermath: The New Politics of Trade – November 14 in Washington, hosted by Politico – More Information
Executive Education for Global Executives, Diplomats, Trade Policy Officials, Legal Professionals and More: Georgetown Law’s Institute of International Economic Law (IIEL) 2016 Global Trade Academy – November 14-18 in Washington, hosted by Georgetown Law’s Institute of International Economic Law – More Information
The Importance of Transatlantic Trade – November 15 in Antwerp, hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Belgium – More Information
Digital Trade: Priorities for the 21st Century – November 17 in Strasbourg, hosted by MEP Marietje Schaake – More Information
Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight!
Email mkasperek@AtlanticCouncil.org with your ideas and suggestions.