Brexit

  • First Signs of Second Thoughts on Brexit

    British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government began substantive negotiations to leave the European Union (EU) in Brussels this week, although nobody in Britain is yet clear about what outcome the country is actually seeking. With May’s government in disarray, and her Cabinet wracked with infighting and confusion over Brexit, there is even a growing belief in some quarters that the country could, and perhaps should, end up staying inside the EU.

    Until very recently, even mentioning such a possibility was politically and socially taboo. Supporters of the Leave campaign, which won the June 2016 EU referendum by 52 percent to 48 percent, had intimidated most of the rest of the country into believing that the “will of the people” must be obeyed, and that no dissent or deviation would be tolerated.

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  • TRADE in ACTION - July 13, 2017

    THIS WEEK IN TRADE
    The G20 summit has ended, with the leaders delivering their leaders declaration. Additionally, they agreed on a more concentrated approach to dealing with global excess steel capacity, with a policy solution planned for November.

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  • TRADE in ACTION - July 7, 2017

    THIS WEEK IN TRADE
    The G20 Summit is this week, and the stakes are high for all the attendees. For live coverage of the G20, follow along on Politico.

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  • The UK: In the Midst of a Train Crash

    Not even the most United Kingdom-sceptic European could have imagined that just a year after the Brexit referendum Britain would appear to be teetering on the brink of disorder. Indeed, over the past year the group behind this scenario planning / train crash project analysed the various possibilities of danger to both the British state and the union of the United Kingdom; but even four months ago the dangers seemed no more than potentials, each contingent on quite a number of other causalities. These have largely been swept away, for three core reasons.

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  • Macron’s Putin Policy: ‘Firmness Without Provocation’

    French President Emmanuel Macron would like to work with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to seek mutually acceptable solutions to crises that have bedeviled ties between the West and Russia over the past few years, France’s ambassador to the United States, Gérard Araud, said in an Atlantic Council phone briefing on June 19.

    Unlike the Soviet Union, Russia “is not an existential threat” to Europe, said Araud.

    “Russia has done things that we don’t accept, but at the same time Russia has its own legitimate interests, so let’s talk with the Russians to see whether we reach compromise deals which are mutually acceptable,” he said.

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  • The 2017 UK General Election and the Future of US-UK Relations

    On June 8, the United Kingdom will vote in its second general election in just over two years. The last election in May 2015 resulted in a Conservative government, and led to the June 2016 national referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union. Following the result in favor of Brexit, Prime Minister David Cameron—the leader of the unsuccessful Remain campaign—resigned, and former Home Secretary Theresa May took office.

    May’s leadership has been dominated by Britain’s departure from the EU, and the implications for the country. In April, facing domestic opposition to this approach, including legal challenges, she called a snap general election. She argued this would help Britain have a stronger negotiating position in the talks with other EU member states, and would give her a clear mandate to go ahead with leaving the EU. Although Brexit is an important issue in the election, however, it is not the sole focus of the campaign. Health, education, welfare,...

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  • British Election: Can Data Science See Through the Fog of Terror Attacks?

    Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the front-runners in the British general election, have endured a volatile race punctuated by two terror attacks that have rocked Britain. With campaigning suspended twice after each incident and British pollsters’ failure to predict Brexit, FutureSource queried a data science firm to get its reading on the election that has challenged conventional forecasters.

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  • The UK and EU Must Moderate Brexit and the US Must Get Smart About What is Unfolding

    To use an old Thatcherite adage, the United States, United Kingdom and European Union are all living in cloud cuckoo land, seemingly vastly underestimating the medium- to long-term effects of Brexit: a dramatically weakened UK, an undermined EU, and fragmented transatlantic relations. Put another way: the transatlantic rift that has clearly already opened over NATO and now the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement could be just the start—made far worse by a bad Brexit.

    Over the past few months, a group of Brits in Brussels has been working unofficially on Brexit scenario planning, attempting to delve into what the UK, EU, and transatlantic relations will be facing with Brexit. Laid out in such detail—which we will do in the next few weeks—is a veritable catalogue of daunting mountain-size challenges. While it’s true the UK faces some of the biggest knots to disentangle, the EU and transatlantic relations won’t be spared. Viewed all together, it is clear that...

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  • TRADE in ACTION, April 20, 2017

    This week in TradeinAction: As international finance leaders convene in Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, the IMF raises its outlook for global economic growth. Last Sunday, Turkish voters approved a referendum question to replace the current parliamentary system with a presidential system. This Sunday, French voters head to the polls for the first round of the French elections; all the while Prime Minister Theresa May announces a snap parliament election scheduled...
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  • May Hopes Snap UK Poll Will Ease Brexit

    The snap UK general election called by British Prime Minister Theresa May for June 8 is likely to strengthen her political authority and ease the tortuous negotiation of Britain's departure from the EU - provided of course she wins. All the signs are that she will.  

    The political climate is unlikely to be as favorable to May as it is now for a long time. With Brexit negotiations due to start later in June, May has a valid claim that she needs a personal and political mandate from the country to conduct the talks in the way she chooses. Equally important, much of the country has not yet woken up to the pain of Brexit that the negotiations will progressively reveal. 

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