Strategy Initiative

  • Data Firms React to Iranian Presidential Showdown

    This blog post is part of a series analyzing the newest forms of data forecasting.

    The Iranian presidential election has leapt into the headlines as two candidates feverishly make their final arguments to voters. President Hassan Rouhani and conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi have burst into the lead after two other hopefuls dropped out of the race this week. With opinion polling scattered and inconsistent, a clear picture of the electorate is difficult to measure. Two data science startups have offered their election analysis before Friday’s voting. This blog is part of the Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative’s continuing series on data-driven electoral forecasting. Previous pieces looked at data forecasts versus polling predictions in the runup to the French presidential voting in late April and early May, and the recent South Korean presidential election.

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  • Data Firms Weigh In On South Korean Presidential Race During Polling Blackout

    This blog post is part of a series analyzing the newest forms of data forecasting.

    The South Korean presidential election scheduled for tomorrow has been fraught with anxiety as voters remain divided over the direction of the country’s political future. The aftermath of a presidential impeachment has placed heightened scrutiny over the presidential race. North Korea has added to the apprehension as it continues to rattle the electorate in its quest to mate ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.

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  • Our World Transformed: A New Futures Study on Geopolitical Risks

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    Geopolitical volatility is the new normal and is not going away anytime soon.

    While the news features the rise of protectionism everyday, an energy crisis due to a conflict in the Middle East or the spread of water and food insecurity, could equally disrupt the world. Should any of these situations deteriorate further, the impacts would be earth shattering for how the world governs and does business.

    A new Atlantic Council study, released today, looks at the implications of these global risks on global gross domestic product (GDP), extreme poverty, middle-class growth, and country...

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  • California's Bay Area: Astride the World

    California’s Bay Area, a region that stretches northward from Silicon Valley (San Jose, Palo Alto, and environs) to San Francisco and Oakland, is the world’s premier technology hub. By almost every imaginable metric, the Bay Area is ahead of every other hub in the world, often by a large margin. The region, Bay Area interlocutors told us, “is its own center of gravity” with “an ecosystem to dream about.” There are few reasons to be concerned about the region’s staying power in the foreseeable future, and indeed there is no reason to believe that it will fall from first place in the near term. Yet, over the longer run, the Bay Area will face stiffer headwinds, some of its own making.
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  • Ward Quoted by the Huffington Post on Bannon's Removal from the National Security Council


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  • Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures

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    Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. The spectrum of possible futures for Europe is wide, encompassing everything from rebirth to disintegration. But, a strong leap toward greater EU-wide integration—as was sometimes the outcome of earlier crises—seems unlikely at best. Instead, this seems a time for smaller steps toward more integration, most likely in response to specific challenges, including: stronger external border controls; enhanced eurozone governance; or a more capable Common Security and Defense Policy. If...

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  • America's Role in the World: Congress and US Foreign Policy

    As the Trump administration continues to form its foreign policy and national security strategy, Congress has a distinct role of its own to play in shaping how the United States addresses emerging global threats and approaches its leadership role on the international stage.  

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  • Report by Global Think Tanks Calls for Robust and Principled Strategy to Constrain Russia

    WASHINGTON, DC – A group of former officials and experts from leading democracies called today for a robust and principled new strategy toward Russia. In a report issued by the Atlantic Council and other leading global think tanks from Canada, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Italy, the group calls upon the West to adopt a long-term strategy of “constrainment” aimed at countering Russia’s challenge to the democratic order.

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  • Beyond the Headlines: A Strategy for US Engagement with Latin America in the Trump Era

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    As the new administration considers ways to ensure US national security and economic growth, a newly engaged Latin America presents a wealth of opportunity on myriad fronts: urbanization, human capital, open markets, energy reform, technology, and the fight against corruption. Diverse sectors of the United States are already on board: businesses investing in the region; NGOs working on the ground; and local and state governments with trade partners across the border.

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  • Ward Quoted by the Intercept on President Trump and the National Security Council


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