Brent Scowcroft Center Resident Senior Fellow Robert Manning cowrites for East Asia Forum on why the future of the Asia-Pacific regional order will be defined by Japan and China’s relationship:
History strongly suggests that the character of relations among major powers is a key determinant of stability. Europe was convulsed in continuous warfare until France and Germany came to terms after World War II. Only then did Europe enjoy the prospects of integration leading to the European Union.
Similarly, in the Asia Pacific the future of regional order will be significantly defined by the character of Sino–Japanese relations. There have been progressive and regressive cycles since Tokyo and Beijing normalised relations in 1971, but since 2000, largely reflecting China’s rise and the evolution of the US–Japan alliance, Sino–Japanese ties have been on a downhill slide.