Mathew J. Burrows

  • Burrows and Burwell Quoted in World Economic Forum on the Future of Europe


    Read More
  • The Retreat of Western Liberalism: A Fireside Chat with Edward Luce

    In The Retreat of Western Liberalism, Edward Luce makes a larger statement about the weakening of Western hegemony and the crisis of liberal democracy—of which Donald Trump and his European counterparts are not the cause, but a deeply alarming symptom. Luce argues that the erosion of middle-class incomes has eaten away at liberal democratic consensus, resulting in today’s crisis. Unless the West can rekindle an economy that produces gains for the majority of its people, its political liberties may be doomed. 

    Read More
  • The Prediction Game: Data Science Firms vs. Pollsters on Sunday’s French Presidential Election

    Pollsters used to have the monopoly on predicting electoral outcomes. But startups that use data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence have been crowding into that market and in several cases besting the pollsters at their own game. Brexit and Donald Trump’s electoral victory confounded pollsters, but were forecast by several of the data science firms. As we head toward the second round of the French presidential election on May 7, we wanted to review how the new startups come up with their forecasts and compared their predictions with pollsters. So far, the accuracy award went to French polling firms for being stop-on in their predictions of the Macron victory in the first round.
    Read More
  • Burrows Quoted by CNN on Geopolitical Risk


    Read More
  • Our World Transformed: Geopolitical Shocks and Risks

    pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

    No one can be complacent about geopolitical risks these days. The shocks and surprises of the past few years show how easily assumptions about liberal markets, international relations, conflict, and democracy can be shaken. Geopolitical volatility has become a key driver of uncertainty, and will remain one over the next few years.

     

    Read More
  • Our World Transformed: A New Futures Study on Geopolitical Risks

    Zurich Geopolitical Email Banner

    Geopolitical volatility is the new normal and is not going away anytime soon.

    While the news features the rise of protectionism everyday, an energy crisis due to a conflict in the Middle East or the spread of water and food insecurity, could equally disrupt the world. Should any of these situations deteriorate further, the impacts would be earth shattering for how the world governs and does business.

    A new Atlantic Council study, released today, looks at the implications of these global risks on global gross domestic product (GDP), extreme poverty, middle-class growth, and country instability. This report tests the proposition that global risks are increasing faster than global growth.

    Read More
  • Is Brexit Good for the EU?

    The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) has strengthened solidarity among the bloc’s other twenty-seven member states, David O’Sullivan, the EU’s ambassador to the United States, said at the Atlantic Council on March 29.

    “The debate around Brexit has strengthened support for the European Union elsewhere around Europe,” according to O’Sullivan. “If anything, it has joined the rest of us more closely together.”

    On March 29, British Prime Minister Theresa May officially triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty beginning the process of taking the United Kingdom (UK) out of the EU.

    O’Sullivan said that the prospects of Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU, triggering a domino effect among other European nations is “most unlikely.” While populist forces in other countries with upcoming elections—such as France and Germany—seek to capitalize on the challenges facing the Union and introduce division, O’Sullivan asserted, “I remain remarkably optimistic about the future of Europe, the future of the European Union.”

    Read More
  • Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures

    pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

    Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. The spectrum of possible futures for Europe is wide, encompassing everything from rebirth to disintegration. But, a strong leap toward greater EU-wide integration—as was sometimes the outcome of earlier crises—seems unlikely at best. Instead, this seems a time for smaller steps toward more integration, most likely in response to specific challenges, including: stronger external border controls; enhanced eurozone governance; or a more capable Common Security and Defense Policy. If the positive option is modest integration, the alternative future is one dominated by a clear break with past integration. A presidential victory in May by France’s Marine Le Pen could splinter the European Union, sending it into a tailspin toward disintegration. Even if this dire forecast is avoided, Europe—and especially the European Union (EU)—will face challenges that push it into entirely new directions. If the United States withdraws from Europe, for example, will Europe be forced to accommodate Russian demands? Or will that challenge foster stronger security cooperation among a core set of nations, to counterbalance a weakening NATO? And if Europe’s economy continues on a slow-growth path, will it be able to afford to respond to the challenges it faces?

     

    Read More
  • Burrows Quoted by the Daily Signal on European Populism and Recent Dutch Election Results


    Read More
  • Burrows Quoted by the Sun on NATO, Russia, and Donald Trump


    Read More