Reports


Five years after the 2011 revolution, Egypt’s economy is floundering and remains far from recovery. Successive Egyptian governments have struggled to develop a vision for a new economic model for Egypt, while simultaneously implementing populist policies to appease the immediate demand of the public. In “The Economic Decline of Egypt after the 2011 Uprising,” authors Mohsin Khan and Elissa Miller examine the trajectory of Egypt’s economy since 2011 and what the current Egyptian government should do to arrest the economy’s downward slide.

Read More

After a historic neck and neck race, the final results are now in: Peruvians have elected 77-year-old economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) as president. In office, PPK will have to cope with the fact that Fuerza Popular, his opponent Keiko Fujimori’s party, won an absolute majority in Congress, putting into question his ability to easily implement reforms. Without legislative support, what can we expect from his presidency? How will he reconcile demands for increased spending with slowing economic growth? Will his economic plan be enough to jumpstart the economy?

In this month’s Spotlight, we ask: What are the top four issues President-elect Kuczynski must address in his first one hundred days in office?
pdfRead the Publication (PDF)
With the impending Brexit referendum on June 23, economists must anticipate the ramifications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). This is the first time the voluntary integration of the EU has been threatened, and creates a distressing existential question: is EU membership valuable enough?

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

Shape, Steer, and Sustain reminds readers that economic forces, too often ignored, help underpin world order, and that America can employ its own “economic statecraft” to achieve some of its geopolitical objectives. It is a worthwhile effort which ought to be widely read.”

Henry Kissinger, former United States Secretary of State, on Shape, Steer, and Sustain: A US Strategy for the New Global Economic Order


Ten years ago, most observers predicted a period of smooth sailing for the world economy. Today, the world looks very different. The global economy experienced a major crisis in 2008, from which many countries have not fully recovered. Europe faces a series of major economic, financial, social, and political stresses, from outside its borders and from within. Many of the fastest-growing economies from that time, especially commodity exporters, are now experiencing serious difficulties. China is still growing at a reasonable rate, but more slowly than a few years ago. Much of the Middle East is in turmoil and its economies, with rare exceptions, are suffering. The Doha Round has proved highly disappointing, failing to meet lofty expectations. Global debt rose significantly, and job creation has stalled in many parts of the world.

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

Five years after Tunisia’s revolution, which ousted longtime authoritarian ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and put the country on the path towards nascent democracy, democratic and economic reforms have stalled. Following the revolution, the United States, the European Union (EU), and EU member states—namely France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—substantially boosted assistance to Tunisia. But simply increasing support has not proven to be effective. To help Tunisia as it moves away from the immediate post-revolutionary period, the United States and the EU must develop a joint transatlantic strategy that recognizes Tunisia as a priority for Western engagement with the Arab world.

 

Read More

The Pacific Alliance–an innovative pact among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru–has unprecedented opportunity to capitalize on political changes in Brazil and Argentina and move the region into a new era of regional integration. A new publication by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Bertelsmann Foundation, released just weeks ahead of the Alliance’s Sixth Presidential Summit in Chile, says that now is the moment for the Alliance to deepen engagement with Mercosur and build on efforts to strengthen financial market, energy, trade, and foreign policy coordination.

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

After more than three years of negotiations to forge a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), many elements of the agreement are still far from settled. However, it is possible to reach agreement in 2016. The negotiators are determined, and there is mounting awareness that an agreement that underscores the importance of the transatlantic economic relationship and strengthens the strategic relationship between the European Union (EU) and the United States is needed.

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

NATO has the capacity to win a conventional war in the Baltics, if appropriate steps are taken.

Effective defense of the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—and deterrence built upon such defensive capabilities—is one of the key challenges facing NATO and its member nations. Russia’s actions, geopolitical rhetoric, and geographic proximity to the Baltics have generated the requirement for a significant defense capability. This report sets forth how such a capability should be achieved, for both conventional and hybrid conflicts. Certain of the capabilities discussed below will also have relevance to issues in NATO’s South, and to resilience for nations throughout the Alliance. As set forth in the report NATO’s New Strategy, however, such considerations are of equal importance to the threat to the Baltics, and require action by the Alliance. NATO, of course, is only one of the West’s possible responses to geopolitical challenges, and the proposals below are therefore intended to fit within the overall international context faced by the NATO nations and their partners. The paper, however, focuses specifically on the Baltic defense challenge. In fact, NATO has the capacity to win a conventional war in the Baltics, even in the face of a short-notice Russian attack—if appropriate steps are taken to provide a substantial defense. Accordingly, to build on steps taken by NATO at the 2014 Wales Summit, by ministers since then, and by the United States under the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI), this paper recommends that NATO should take the following actions.

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

Petrocaribe, Caracas’ eleven-year-old energy and diplomatic alliance, is weakening. As Venezuela spirals closer to economic demise, the United States and the international community have an unprecedented opportunity to support Central America and the Caribbean’s transition away from Petrocaribe. A report released today by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center proposes new strategies for the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean to advance together toward a more sustainable energy future. As regional leaders prepare to meet in Washington, DC on May 4 to discuss energy security, now is the time to take immediate steps to prepare against the inevitable destabilization that will result from Venezuela’s collapse.

 

Read More

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

The United States and the European Union (EU) share the largest trade and investment relationship in the world, with more than $5.5 trillion in commerce every year and up to fifteen million jobs generated on both sides of the Atlantic. Currently under negotiations, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) will bolster this key partnership, increasing efficiency, spurring job creation, and generating opportunities for innovation and small and medium enterprises. At a time of slow recovery from the 2009 recession, a comprehensive agreement that protects high quality standards can send a powerful signal to the rest of the world, highlighting the United States’ and Europe’s dynamism.

 

Read More