Publications

Turkey on the Threshold: Europe

In December 2004, the European Union will decide whether or not to begin accession negotiations with Turkey. Whatever the outcome, the implications for U.S.-Turkish relations and U.S.-EU relations — indeed, for transatlantic relations generally — will be significant. The challenges for U.S. policy both before and after the EU decision are correspondingly important.

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Since the ascendance of terrorism as one of the major threats to international peace and security, or at least the world’s realization of terrorism as such, the potential proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has acquired a new dimension of threat. The evident interest in WMD shown by terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda has underlined this danger and given heightened urgency to strengthening the international non-proliferation regime. As part of a new non proliferation strategy, the George W. Bush administration proposed the creation of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) in May 2003. This initiative has resulted in an agreement to interdict shipments of WMD in transit through international waters.

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This paper explores the choices and trade-offs that the United States typically faces when it considers the problem of quelling violence in failing states and chronically unstable regions. After first considering the hazards posed by these regions, the paper explicates the tools and techniques required by various courses of action.  It also discusses some of the issues that policymakers have to weigh in considering these alternatives.  Suggestions are then offered on possible paths for future cooperation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China on this important topic.

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This paper sketches the outlines of a more systematic approach to non-military cooperation and preventive action that China and the United States might take to prevent state failure. It focuses mainly, but not exclusively, on greater Asia, defined broadly to range from Southwest Asia (the Middle East north and east of the Persian Gulf) through the Indian subcontinent southwards to the Indonesian archipelago and northwards to the Korean peninsula. This area was chosen not only because of its proximity to China but also because of its strategic importance to the United States and the existence of shared or overlapping Chinese and American interests.
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This paper begins by analyzing the threat weak and failing states might present and identifying Asian states that might be of concern. Second, it reviews the current U.S. administration’s public statements on the Asian states it considers weak or failing.  Third, the paper concludes with an effort to track the extent to which U.S. public opinion reflects the Bush administration’s statements, offering analyses by independent experts. This paper attempts to answer such questions as: Do weak and failing states pose a threat to the United States, the Asia-Pacific region or the international system? If so, what is the nature of the threat? How is it manifest? How is it perceived?

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Economic sanctions have been a frequently used tool of U.S. foreign policy in recent years. One of the most controversial applications of sanctions has been through the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which was originally passed into law in 1996 and renewed in 2001. Events since the Act’s passage have, however, raised questions about the effectiveness of ILSA in particular, and sanctions in general, as foreign policy tools.

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Programmes for the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants have become an integral part of peacekeeping operations and post-conflict reconstruction plans. There is hardly any UN peacekeeping mission that is not confronted with aspects of DDR programmes. A number of countries have also implemented demobilisation programmes as part of a national security sector reform or force reduction. DDR programmes constitute a vital link between military and civilian aspects of peace operations.

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The current NATO command structure is insufficient to manage the individually formidable tasks of changing doctrine; out of area operations; emerging and unpredictable threats and asymmetric strategies; cleaner “supported-supporting” command relationships; integration of joint forces; and making the transition from threat-based to capabilities-based force development simultaneously.

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This compendium presents the texts of the U.S. policy statements, laws, and regulations (or relevant parts thereof) that govern U.S. relations with Libya, on both the bilateral and multilateral levels. Before each document or group of documents is an analytic summary which highlights the context, major provisions, and significance of the policy, law, or regulation in question as it relates to U.S.-Libyan relations. At the end is an essay entitled, “Removing Restrictions on U.S.-Libyan Relations,” which discusses how a U.S. government seeking to do so might go about the process of normalizing relations, taking either a comprehensive or incremental approach.

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Few aspects of the process of democratization in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are more important than the liberalization of the media. Unless free and independent media can be established on a sound financial footing, the new democratic institutions will be seriously incomplete. This study provides a survey of the experience of the media reform to date, an assessment of the challenges that must still be faced, and conclusions and recommendations on what is needed to bring the process to a successful conclusion in the light of Western experience.

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