Transitions in Focus: Tunisia

Seven years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, Tunisia remains the only country to have emerged from the sweeping changes that took hold in the region as a fledgling democracy. Since then-President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali stepped down from power of January 14, 2011, Tunisia has accomplished a number of major successes, including holding free and fair national elections, fostering political compromise, implementing reforms to institute equal protection for men and women under the law, and making progress on freedoms of expression and belief. Economic challenges and political setbacks, however, could upset Tunisia’s advances.
Normally, the beaches of southern Tunisia are quiet in November. It is the start of the lean months, when few tourists arrive and the jobs which depend on them vanish. This year is different. Tunisia’s beaches have a new customer: Tunisians trying to go to Europe

Between October 1st and November 8th, more Tunisians took to the seas than in 2015 and 2016 combined, with Italy and Tunisia detaining 4,709. In total, more than 8,700 Tunisian migrants have been caught by Italy and Tunisia in 2017. There are suspicions this represents only a fraction of those who have left.
Qatar is one of Tunisia’s most important trade partners. It has invested, loaned, or assisted Tunisia with more than 1.5 billion USD since 2011, and has directed its media, think-tanks, and PR empire to acclaim the country’s transition to democracy. Thousands of Tunisians work in Qatar, and the current Gulf crisis has allowed a number of Tunisian businessmen to profit from the besieged peninsula by exporting industrial products, and even establishing factories there.
Although Tunisia is still seen favorably in Washington, the US is unlikely to be its savior. No matter how much Washington reflects on Tunisia as a successful democratic transition, the mood in the US capital will not lead to large amounts of aid to magically fix Tunisia’s security and economic woes. Only by looking to itself can Tunisia complete its democratic transition.
As it enters its sixth year, the crisis in Libya shows no signs of abating. The UN-backed unity government seems to be teetering on the edge of collapse, and clashes threaten to escalate between eastern and western forces. Withdrawal from Libya could have negative consequences for western interests, and the United States—under the Trump administration—could take the lead in engaging with Libya to achieve stability. This engagement is key, not only for Libya’s stability, but for the stability of neighboring Egypt and Tunisia as well as US and European interests in the region.
On December 10, following weeks of negotiations, Tunisia’s parliament approved a $14 billion budget for 2017. The budget includes a number of provisions aimed at cutting the country’s deficit in line with the economic reform plan of Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, who was appointed in August of this year. However, the controversy surrounding the budget and rejection of certain measures raise questions regarding Chahed’s ability to push through difficult but needed reforms. While the 2017 budget was presented by Chahed as one of consensus, it is clear that the country remains divided over reforms aimed at reviving the economy.  
Youssef Chahed, the Arab world's youngest head of government and a 41-year-old PhD holder in agricultural economics, led the decentralisation program as Tunisia’s Minister of Local Affairs under the government of his predecessor, Habib Essid. This experience arms him in his new role as prime minister with an understanding of Tunisia's deep bureaucracy and uneven resource distribution among the country's regions. This is one of the areas where his newly formed government has to make major reforms to respond to increasingly urgent local demands.


    

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