IranSource | Understanding and Analyzing a Multifaceted Iran

As the first set of US sanctions against Iran went back into effect Aug. 7, India is applying its negotiations skills—effectively, so far—toward managing relations with both sides. 

The United States and its Persian Gulf Arab allies may be able to provide India with enough crude to offset any reduction in India’s oil imports from Iran. But will Delhi give in to the Trump administration’s pressure to cut Iranian oil imports completely by Nov. 4, thereby endangering a long-standing relationship with Tehran that goes beyond energy?

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While the world’s attention was on US President Donald Trump’s Twitter war with Tehran the other week, some good news in Iran escaped notice. A group of women’s rights activists arrested in front of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs on International Women’s Day were acquitted, after initially being charged for planning and participating in a protest on the economic situation of women. Many feared the mass arrests would result in heavy sentences and be used as a justification to crackdown on rights defenders who have slowly managed to rebuild the Iranian women’s movement over the last few years.

The acquittal of the twenty-one activists seemed to confirm that part of the security apparatus isn’t fully intent on cracking down on women’s groups, and that some of their peaceful activities would be tolerated. This message was echoed by Shahindokht Mowlaverdi—a staunch advocate of women’s rights and special advisor to the president on citizens’ rights—who in a recent interview promised that the Rouhani administration was working to ease social, cultural, and political pressures. However, Mowlaverdi also warned that “the [Rouhani] government is not the only entity in charge of these sectors,” referring to the Judiciary and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are responsible for much of the crackdowns and pressures over the years.

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The news coming out of Iran these days tells the story of a country in crisis. The economy is sliding towards collapse, even before the first round of US sanctions were reinstated on August 6. Nationwide protests are calling for regime change—a dirty word in Tehran up until recently. The Iranian government and its military leaders speak openly about looming conflicts. Ironically, only a few months ago, there were talks of Iran as a rising regional power in an otherwise volatile Middle East.

So what are the major factors working against the Iranian government?

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The short answer is “No.” A family and an entourage that placed itself at the disposal of Iran while burning much of Syria to the ground will not prevail, provided the United States and its partners begin to push back. Yet termites are at work, and the fulfillment of this proviso is far from certain.

The Trump administration, unlike its predecessor, claims to oppose Iran’s domination of what is left of the Syrian state. Unlike his predecessor, US President Donald Trump did not hesitate to strike militarily when Bashar al-Assad, supported by Iran and Russia, twice assaulted defenseless civilians with sarin nerve agent. When Russian “military contractors” sought, in February of this year, to cross the Euphrates River to attack American-held positions, there was no ignominious retreat. On the contrary, the Kremlin learned a hard lesson about testing American resolve east of the Euphrates de-confliction line. Iranian-led Shia militias and regime military units have been similarly educated.

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The telephone conversation between Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama in 2013, the numerous talks between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during two years of nuclear negotiations, and a multilateral meeting last year that included Zarif and then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, demolished many taboos in regard to direct contact between Iran and the US.

The US and Iran should negotiate, but meaningful steps need to be taken in advance and the objective must be to solve all major bilateral issues.

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The Islamic Republic of Iran has relied on enmity with the United States for its own legitimacy throughout its existence, using it – and the threat of US allies such as Israel and the Persian Gulf littoral sheikdoms -- to excuse violence against its own citizens and intervention in regional conflicts. Similarly, the US government and its allies have used Iran as a bogeyman to justify the large US military presence in the area, and huge military spending by its allies.

This is a win-win situation for politicians and arms merchants; and a lose-lose situation for ordinary people, particularly Iranians, and all peace lovers who would rather see their resources spent on economic development.

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It’s a truism that every president makes us nostalgic for his predecessor. In the case of Iran, US President Donald Trump and his men are outdoing the bumbles and fumbles of Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton, and Obama, while making those earlier presidents appear as far-seeing statesmen.

Earlier presidents at least knew Iran was a trap. They saw how Iran had destroyed Jimmy Carter’s presidency and almost did the same to Ronald Reagan’s. Although it proved impossible, their preference—at least until Barack Obama—was to ignore Iran.

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Tension continues to escalate along the Israeli-Syrian border with the recent regime southern offensive to oust opposition in the area and Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. Continued activity along the border is expected as Iran continues to solidify its hold on Syria. Yet Israel's strategy is less clear as Iran continues to test the boundaries pushing Israel to act in Syria; among other actors like the Islamic State. We asked our nonresident senior fellows former Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, and Mona Alami about Israel's current and potential involvement in the Syrian conflict as it develops.

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Today marks the fifth anniversary of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s inauguration on August 3, 2013. Many campaign promises were made during Rouhani’s 2013 and 2017 presidential runs. ASL19, a technology and research group working on freedom of expression and access to information in Iran, has been tracking Rouhani’s full-fledged promises over the years. Similar to PolitiFact’s Trump-O-Meter, Rouhani Meter monitors all one hundred promises, which includes: ending the house arrest of the Green Movement leaders, banking reform, providing security for women in public places, supporting start-up initiatives, attracting $8 billion in foreign direct investment, lifting of non-nuclear sanctions, and lowering the inflation rate.

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President Donald Trump’s foreign policy – like his other policies – has seemed more about self-gratification than national interest.  He quit the Iran nuclear deal, undoing years of diplomacy, largely to erase part of the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Assisted by his administration, the current president poses as a hero forcing the Iranian establishment to succumb to his will. Trump says Iran must renegotiate the landmark deal that Iran, the US and five other world powers agreed to and the UN Security Council endorsed or there will be “severe consequences.”

Trump’s subsequent offer to meet with his Iranian counterpart “without preconditions” produced an understandable feeling of whiplash, a week after he appeared to threaten Iran with destruction. During his campaign, Trump promised an “unpredictable” foreign policy. It is not clear whether he knew at the time about the Nixon-Kissinger “madman” doctrine of the 1970s. More likely, this was preening bluster, intended to capture the world's attention. Trump’s offer to meet Iran’s leadership seems like a similar piece of posturing.

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