MENASource|News, Analysis, Perspectives

Not many heads of governments in the Middle East can move swiftly between Riyadh, Cairo, Amman, Ankara, and Tehran, and receive a warm welcome in all those capitals. Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, followed this itinerary in the last few days, trying to create the image of a competent leader who victoriously took Iraq out of an existential fight with the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh) and saved its unity from what is perceived in Baghdad as “Kurdish secessionism”. Iraqi senior officials always advocated the idea that a strong Iraq could be a bridge in this highly divided and polarized region, a message Abadi emphasized when he demanded the United States and Iran spare his country the ramifications of their conflict.

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• MENASource
• Iraq
• Harith Hasan

Tunisia’s transition to democracy is in a difficult spot: the public is frustrated with the political and economic situation, but the political elite are shying away from needed public engagement. Two recent events stand out: the 2018 draft budget law put forward this month and the recent postponement of the local elections to next year. By postponing the elections, Tunisian politicians forwent an opportunity to engage the citizenry at a time when that dialogue will be critical—as the government begins to implement economic reforms that are expected to grow its economy, changes will also bring layoffs and tax hikes to a population already largely dissatisfied with its government’s performance.

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• MENASource
• Tunisia
• Elissa Miller
• Andrea Taylor

France played a significant role in the negotiations that led to the deal with Iran known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The French wanted a “robust deal,” and they were concerned by the Obama administration’s tendency to turn a blind eye to Iran’s regional policy with the aim of maximizing the chances of a nuclear deal.

This does not mean that the French wished to include regional questions or ballistic missiles issues in the negotiations. Separating these subjects was quickly agreed upon for reasons of efficiency. The French simply believed that negotiating nuclear issues should not be incompatible with countering Iranian actions in the region, and notably in Syria. Two years later, we face the same dilemma.

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• Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
• MENASource

In the wake of the September 25 referendum in Kurdistan, the Iraqi government announced on October 15 that it began a military deployment to reestablish authority in Kirkuk in coordination with the Peshmerga. It soon became clear that the Peshmerga mentioned belonged to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—specifically, the Talabani family wing—which views aggressive moves toward independence with far more skepticism than its political rivals in the Kurdistan Regional Government dominated by Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The PUK drew the ire of fellow Kurds who viewed the deal as facilitating the federal forces’ reclamation of the territory. To complicate matters further, some reports indicated that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) Quds Force leader Qassim Suleimani appears to have played a role in convincing the Talabani family to broker the deal in the absence of any other international or regional mediator. These events highlight the depth of intra-Kurdish divisions at a time of rapidly rising tensions.

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• MENASource
• Iraq
• Harith Hasan

As Tip O’Neill coined it, “all politics is local.” Accordingly, the local dimension of the Kurdistan referendum is a core aspect, but underplayed as the news focuses on regional and international repercussions. The internal political moves that led up to the referendum and the referendum’s results will define KRG politics in the near future, but they are less clear to those outside of the Kurdistan region due to their complexity and language barriers.

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• Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
• MENASource
• Iraq

The United Kingdom has long employed a carrot and stick technique when dealing with Egypt, threatening to suspend aid and economic or military dealings in response to the country’s deteriorating human rights situation. However, such ultimatums are often fleeting, as the UK government places its own short-term interests over improvements in Egypt’s human rights record. The risk, though, is that this undermines the human rights situation in Egypt, and by doing so could worsen the security situation in the long run.

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• Egypt
• MENASource

Despite Morocco’s many legal advances in women’s rights, its lack of effective implementation and the existence of legislative loopholes undermines its reputation as an open, tolerant, and progressive country. In recent months, Morocco’s human rights record has come under the scrutiny of international organizations, notably the UN Human Rights Council latest UPR. Morocco’s questionable human rights—and specifically, women’s rights—abuses are a liability to its role as a US ally, a relationship that offers trade, investment, military, and diplomatic benefits to the nation.

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• MENASource
• Morocco

On Sunday, the Trump Administration suspended non-immigrant visas for Turkish citizens. Students, patients seeking American medical treatment, tourists, and business travelers from Turkey will be denied entry until further notice. A previous argument indicated that US President Donald Trump is closing America’s doors to the world—be it with travel bans for mostly Muslim-majority countries, a historically low refugee cap, or ending protections on undocumented young immigrants. The latest move, though, targets a key NATO ally and partner in the fight against terrorism, and undermines an already tense relationship.

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• Turkey
• MENASource
• Immigration

The demonstrations, police repression, and continued violence in al-Hoceima in the northern Rif region of Morocco bring back not only the rebellious past of that region, but also memories among Moroccans of Hassan II’s repression—the so-called years of lead. The events also bring the country full circle back to the beginning of the Arab uprising of 2011 when optimists viewed Mohammed VI’s reasoned reaction to the February 20 uprising as a sign that Morocco had indeed taken a different path from the one taken by the fallen leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and the still standing one in Syria.

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• MENASource
• Morocco
• Nabeel Khoury

When the extremist group known as the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) was expelled from the northern city of Mosul, locals there were happy. But now, not so much, says Qassim Badran, a former employee of the local power department. The government stopped paying his salary back in 2014 when the Islamic State, or IS, group, took over the city. Even though the federal government said they would start paying civil servants again—and there are many of these because the Iraqi government is the country’s major employer—no money has arrived for Badran and he’s been busy setting up a small store in his garden, so he can actually make some kind of living.

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• MENASource
• Iraq
• ISIS