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December 20, 2018

HEADLINES:
Davos: The White House announced on December 18 that President Trump will be attending the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland to be held in January 2019. 
WTO: During the biennial review of US trade policies at the WTO, the US was accused by China and the European Union in Geneva for taking protectionist measures and manipulating the World Trade Organization (WTO). Japan, Switzerland and Canada also criticised Washington, but US trade ambassador Dennis Shea deflected by stating China’s “unfair competitive practices” were harming foreign companies and workers in violation of WTO rules, vowing to lead reform efforts. 
Trade War: China and the U.S. held vice-ministerial level talks on December 19 to discuss the ongoing trade dispute as the formal January meeting approaches. In the meanwhile, Reuters reports that the office of the US trade representative officially changed the scheduled date of a tariff rate increase on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 12:01 a.m. EST on March 2, 2019 as the United States and China pursue talks on trade and intellectual property. President Trump confirmed plans to distribute a second round of payments to farmers negatively impacted by the US-China tariff war. China moved a step closer to initiating a formal WTO inquiry into whether President Trump’s $250 billion in tariffs against Chinese goods violate international trade rules, a process that could move forward next month.
Brexit: At its meeting on 14 December  the Swiss Federal Council approved the text of a trade agreement with the UK aiming to maintain existing economic and trade relations with the country after its departure from the European Union. On December 18, the British government said it wouldimplement plans for a no-deal Brexit in full and begin telling businesses and citizens to prepare for the risk of leaving the European Union without an agreement. Equally, the European Commission implemented their “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors.

2018 in Review and Looking Ahead for 2019
Opinion:
 Markets are Underestimating the Long-Term Impact of Trump's Fight with China, Frederick Kempe, The Atlantic Council
Opinion: The U.S. Is Playing Catch-Up With Rivals as Globalization Marches OnBloomberg
Analysis: A Fragile Truce Keeps Global Trade on Edge,  Michelle Jamrisko, Chloe Whiteaker and Cedric Sam, Bloomberg
Analysis: 2018 Year in ReviewCNN
Opinion: Not Even Hindsight Could Have Helped You Make Money This Year, John Authers, Bloomberg 
Overview: China, Cars and Congress: Three Risks to the 2019 Trade Outlook, Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg
Opinion: No Happy New Year for Central Banks, Fergal O’Brien, Bloomberg
News: Fed Cuts Outlook for US Economic Growth in 2019Financial Times
Interview: Four Experts Weigh in on Key Market Factors for 2019. Here's What You Need to Know Tyler Bailey, CNBC
Opinion: The Fed Needs a New Strategy for 2019Economist 
Explainer: What is a Recession and Why Are People Talking About the Next One? Niraj Chokshi,  New York Times 
Opinion: The Biggest Political Risks to the World Economy 2019, Enda Curran, Bloomberg 
Survey: Preventive Priorities Survey: 2019Council on Foreign Relations
Opinion: Another Warning That a 2019 Recession is Coming, Raul Elizalde, Forbes

TRADE:
Official Statement: Statement of the US by Ambassador Dennis Shea at the 14th WTO Trade Policy Review of the United States of America, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Policy Paper: Full Text of China’s Policy Paper on the European Union, Yang Yi,  Xinhua Net
NewsUS, China Officials Clash at WTO Policy Review, Michael Burke, The Hill
NewsDoubt Builds Over China's Retreat From Industrial Dominance Plan, Shawn Donnan, Peter Martin and Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg
NewsUS, China Can Reach a Deal on Trade in 90 Days, Ex-Chinese Central Bank Official Says , Catherine WongSouth China Morning Post
AnalysisTrump’s Trade War with China Makes Russia Great Again, Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca, Council on Foreign Relations
AnalysisCollateral Damage: US Consumers Worry About the Impact of Trade War On Their Wallets, The Economist 
Analysis: Donald Trump Says Tariffs Will Make America Rich Again. Economists Disagree, Louis Jacobson, Politifact
Opinion: Trump Can’t Have His Tariffs and The Stock Market Too, Ben White, Politico
Analysis: China Scrambles to Sustain Its Trade Truce with America, The Economist
News: Trade War Update: Can Stimulus Save China from Trump’s Tariffs, Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes
Analysis: China: Emergence of a Trade Leviathan, Wall Street Journal
Analysis: Can the New NAFTA Pay for Trump’s Wall? Phil Levy, Forbes
OpinionThe US Must Stop Threatening the EU Over Tariffs, Bernd Lange, Financial Times
Official Study: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): Potential Impact on EU Companies, European Parliament
News: Japan, US and EU to Establish Data Transfer Rules, Nikkei Asian Review
NewsKeeping Trade Flowing After Brexit Won’t Be Plain Sailing, Jonathan Saul, Reuters
News: Switzerland Signs Off On Post-Brexit Trade Agreement with UK, The Local


TWEET OF THE WEEK:


FACTOID OF THE WEEK:

Did you know…that “Grinch Bots” may just steal Christmas? Grinch bots are automated accounts used by anonymous profiteers to inflate the prices of consumer goods by buying in bulk in-demand products on retailers’ websites and then reselling them elsewhere at exorbitant prices. These bots have specifically targeted products such as Barbie and Super Nintendo, making it harder for families to purchase gifts this holiday season. Maybe Christmas doesn’t come from a store, perhaps it means a little bit more, but today it may rely on e-commerce. Read more on what’s being done about Grinch bots here.    
  
 

GLOBALIZATION:
Report: Global Gender Gap Report 2018,World Economic Forum
Blog: Women and Migration: Exploring the Data, Eliana Rubiano-Matulevich, World Bank
News: Britain’s Post-brexit Immigration Plans, Reuters
AnalysisIn 2019, Mideast Economic Troubles Loom  As Wars Wind Down, Karin Laub, Washington Post
Speech: The Future of the WTO and the Multilateral Trading System, Alan Wolff, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Analysis: The Crisis of Peacekeeping, Severine Autesserre, Foreign Affairs

WHAT WE ARE READING:
Quiz: 2018 in Review: Take Our News Quiz, Wall Street Journal
Opinion: FT Person of the Year: George Soros, Roula Khalaf, Financial Times
News: Women Are on Track to Earn the Same As Men in 202 Years, Krystal Chia, Bloomberg
Discussion: Janet Yellen and Paul Krugman on 2008 Financial Crisis, C-SPAN
Analysis: Trump is Shattering Economic Taboos, and His Successors May Pay, Bloomberg
VideoGen Z Saves Early and Ducks Big DebtReuters

UPCOMING EVENTS:
January 9: South Asia Center Ten Year Anniversary Reception, Atlantic Council
January 10: A Conversation with Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,Atlantic Council
January 28: The Global Status of CCS: Is US Technology Leadership at Risk? Atlantic Council 


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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