TRADE IN ACTION February 23, 2018
Global: The final version of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was released on Wednesday, signalling the pact was a step closer to reality even without involvement by the United States.
Some experts argue this might have implications for Canada’s negotiating position in the NAFTA renegotiations.
On the EU side: The European Commission released its Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast, confirming a solid and lasting economic expansion in Europe. The ninth round of negotiations on the EU-Mexico Global Agreement came to a close Tuesday, and although considerable progress has been made, it is unlikely that a final deal will be reached within February, as was hoped.
On the US side: President Donald Trump released his Economic Report of the President, in conjunction with the annual report of the Council of Economic advisers. Secretary Ross released the Steel and Aluminum 232 Reports in coordination with the White House late last week.
Upcoming: TPP is slated to be signed next month. The seventh (9 day!) round of Nafta negotiations is scheduled for February 26 in Mexico City. In parallel, governors of 40 US states are expected in Washington DC for their Winter Meeting- which will talk about trade, among other things. An informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers will take place on February 27. The ASEAN-EU Business Summit is scheduled for March 2 in Singapore.
Unlocking US-India Trade by Dr. Paula Stern
“China would like to be (and could become) the alternative regional hegemon”.
In her recent policy brief, the Hon. Paula Stern, former chairwoman of the US international Trade Commission argues that in order to accomplish the vision of an Indo-Pacific region where democracy and open seas can flourish, bilateral cooperation between the US and India is imperative.
However, challenges remain for this relationship. An agreement that focuses just on the technical sector minimizes the risks of broader bilateral accord and opens the door for the geo-strategic cooperation that India seeks. Given the centrality and significance of IT and e-commerce to both India and the United states, the links between the two nations in these spheres would facilitate a grander coalescence with ramifications not only in trade but for the security, defense, and stability of the region. Read the full paper and Dr. Stern's recommendations here.
Official Document: Economic Report of the President, Donald Trump, White House
Official Analysis: Enhancing U.S. Trade in a Global Economy, Council of Economic Advisors, White House
Official Document: Secretary Ross Releases Steel and Aluminum 232 Reports in Coordination with White House, US Department of Commerce
Speech: Secretary Ross: “A Bright Future for U.S. Leadership of Space Commerce”, US Department of Commerce
Official Release: Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast, European Commission
Official Document: Final Version of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Government of Canada
News: Senate Republicans Call on Trump to Re-engage on TPP, Vicki Needham, The Hill; Official letter here.
News: Japan Hopes U.S. Returns to TPP but Overhaul Tough: Negotiator, Kaori Kaneko, Ami Miyazaki, Reuters
News: EU Studying U.S. Tax Reform In Depth Before Deciding On Any Action, Reuters
Podcast: US Tax Reform to Unleash Butterfly Effect On Global FDI, FDI Intelligence
Policy Brief: Global Imbalances and the Trade Slowdown, Caroline Freund, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Podcast: Trade Talks Episode 24: The Trump Administration Views Trade as National Security Threat, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Opinion: Should Investors Steel Themselves for a Trade Fight?, Chief Investment Office, UBS
News: Central American Nations to Sign Trade Deal with South Korea, The Business Times
Opinion: The Backlash to Belt and Road, Andrew Small, Foreign Affairs
News: U.K. Warns EU It Won't Pay Brexit Bill Without Good Trade Deal, Tim Ross, Bloomberg
News: Layoffs Arrive in Brexit Britain, and Auto Workers are Up First, Suzi Ring & Christopher Jasper, Bloomberg
News: UK Seeks Flexibility on Brexit Transition End Date, Zach Sayer, Fiona Maxwell and Charlie Cooper, Politico
Opinion: The Latest Pro-Brexit Analysis Has Got its Sums Badly Wrong, Chris Giles, Financial Times
Opinion: Britain’s Road to Becoming the EU’s Canada, Martin Wolf, Financial Times
News: Australia Says UK Could Join Pacific Trade Group After Brexit, Benjamin Kentish, Independent
News: Canada Seeks Mercosur Free Trade Deal Amid NAFTA Uncertainty, David Ljunggren, Reuters
Poll: FedEx Trade Index National Small Business Leaders Poll, FedEx
TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK
Did you know...
... that the national US transportation research organization, TRIP, recently rated 10% of all rural bridges in the United States to be structurally deficient? Additionally, they claim that over 100,000 miles of rail lines have been abandoned. Read about the Trump administration's plan to fix this here.
Opinion: The 5 Big Problems with Blockchain Everyone Should be Aware of, Bernard Marr, Forbes
News: Congress Sets Sights On Federal Cryptocurrency Rules, David Morgan, Reuters
News: Venezuela Launches the ‘Petro’, its Cryptocurrency, Racheller Krygier, The Washington Post
Analysis: Fighting Cybersecurity Threats to the Growing Economy, The White House
Opinion: For Artificial Intelligence to Thrive, It Must Explain Itself, Economist
Opinion: Latvia’s Scandals Show Limits of EU Bank Rules, Financial Times
WHAT WE ARE READING
Opinion: Europe Needs a Fiscal Union, Helge Berger, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Blog
Analysis: US Economy: The Growth Puzzle, Sam Fleming, Financial Times
Analysis: Germany Won’t Become the ‘Leader of The Free World’ After All, And the Germans Don’t Mind, Rick Noack, The Washington Post
Book: The Death of Expertise, Tom Nichols
Opinion: Why Sobchak is Wrong and Nalvany is Right, Daniel Vajdich, Atlantic Council
Analysis: France Proposes Tougher Law on Migrants, William Horobin, The Wall Street Journal
News: Martin Selmayr Secures Commission Top Job, Florian Eder, Politico
February 23: Human Capital and the Future of Economic Growth and Security,Council on Foreign Relations
February 23: Time to Reform the Jones Act, Heritage
February 27: A Fed Duet: Janet Yellen in Conversation with Ben Bernanke, Brookings
February 28: Deepening US-India Trade Ties: Focus on States, CSIS
February 28: How to Get American Workers a Raise: Policies to Revitalize Wage Growth, The Hamilton Project
February 28: Trump’s Trade Policy in Asia: A One Year Review, Brookings
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Alexatrini Tsiknia, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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