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November 2, 2018
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HEADLINES:
Trade war: On October 29, President Trump stated that he ‘will make a great deal with China,' but if a deal cannot be reached he has billions of import duties at the ready. Later in the week, the US Department of Justice launched a new initiative aimed at stopping Chinese economic espionage.
Canada: Canada’s ambassador to China, John McCallum stated that Canada is willing to delay a trade deal with China until they change their behavior to be “more reasonable.” 
US-EU: The US urged the European Union on October 29 to reconsider the trade dispute over US metal tariffs at the WTO’s monthly settlement dispute meeting. 
CPTPP: Australia announced on October 31 it had completed procedures needed for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)  to progress. Australia became the sixth country to ratify the agreement, four days after Canada formally approved it. CPTPP will slash tariffs across much of the Asia-Pacific, and will come into force on December 30. 


UPCOMING: 
US: The US midterm elections will be held on November 6, impacting House, Senate and governor seats. 
US-China: President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will talk at the G-20 summit to be held on November 29 in Buenos Aires. 
US-Japan: The administration is also planning to hold a hearing about the trade talks with Japan in December. 


SPOTLIGHT

Rome’s Options in Budget Battle With Brussels
By David A. Wemer 

In light of the European Commission’s rejection of its budget proposal, the Italian government essentially has three options: “cave quickly and fall into line with the EU’s demands, cave slowly, or take Italy off the cliff and leave the euro,” according to Megan Greene, managing director and chief economist for Manulife Asset Management. Atlantic Council experts maintained that it would likely be market, not political, forces that force Rome to back down. For more insight read here

As Angela Merkel Begins Her Exit, What Next?
By Jörn Fleck and Alex Baker 

A Look at the Implications of Reimposed US Sanctions on Iran
By Brian O'Toole 

TRADE:
News: Trump Asks Cabinet to Draft Possible Trade Deal With China, Jenny Leonard, Saleha Mohsin and Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg
Report: EU Trade Agreements Deliver on Growth and Jobs, Support Sustainable Development, European Commission
Opinion: US-China Trade War: What’s in it for Europe?  Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Bruegel
Speech: DDG Wolff: Good Will and Creativity Can Yield Positive Results in Talks on Strengtehning the WTO, World Trade Organization
Opinion: Who Cares About the World Trade Organization, Phil Levy, Forbes
News: WTO Members Work to Overhaul Trade Watchdog Amid Trump’s Criticism , Jacob M. Schlesinger, Paul Vieira and Emre Peker, Wall Street Journal 
Official ReleaseAttorney General Jeff Sessions China Initiative Fact Sheet, US Department of Justice
News:  Many US Firms in China Eyeing Relocation as Trade War Bites: Survey, Sue-Lin Wong, Reuters
News: Hog Industry Worldwide Getting Slaughtered by Trade War, Tom Polansek, Hallie Gu and Ana Mano, Reuters
News: Trump’s Trade Wars Blur Battle Lines in North Carolina, James Politi, Financial Times 
News: Trade War Impact Deepens Across Asia, But ‘Real Economics Shock’ Yet to Hit, Marius Zaharia,  Reuters
Opinion: Vietnam Emerges as Key Beneficiary of US-China Trade War, Coco Liu, Nikkei Asian Review
News:China Sets Official Yuan Rate at Weakest in a Decade,  Saumya Vaishampayan and Mike Bird, Wall Street Journal 
News: China Slashed Its Imports of US Sorghum, Soybean and Corn in September, Reuters, NBC News 
News: With US Sanctions Looming, China Loosens Trade Ties With Iran, Jarrett Blanc, Axios
Analysis: How U.S. Agriculture Will Fare Under the USMCA and Retaliatory TariffsFarm Foundation
Opinion: Unfinished Business: Putting the Final Touches on the USMCA, David L. Goldwyn, The Hill 
Opinion: What is GSP and Why Does It Matter for US Trade? Chad P. Brown, Peterson Institute for International Economics 


FACTOID OF THE WEEK:

Did you know… 
that Oct 30th was the 71st anniversary of GATT, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade signed by 23 nations in Geneva in 1947? It would later become the World Trade Organization in 1995. 

GLOBALIZATION:
Report: Young Women in Peace and Security: At the Intersection of the YPS and WPS Agendas, UN Women
News: U.S. GDP Grows Above-Forecast 3.5% on Consumers, Inventories, Katia Dmitrieva  and Sho Chandra, Bloomberg 
Opinion: Populists Are Globalists, Too, Quinn Slobodian, New York Times
Analysis: Platform Economy -  How Companies Can Drive Inclusive Growth, Henriette Kolb, Council on Foreign Relations
Opinion: The World’s System for Resettling Refugees Benefits the United States, Denis McDonough and Ryan Crocker, Foreign Policy 
Blog: 5 Ways to Do Better Post-Disaster Assessments, Joe Leitmann, The World Bank
Blog: The United Nations by the Numbers, Chandler Green, United Nations Foundation

WHAT WE ARE READING:
Report: An Unfair Start: Inequality in Children’s Education in Rich Countries, Yekaterina Chzhen, Gwyther Rees, Anna Gromada, Jose Cuesta and Zlata Bruckauf and Madelaine Drohan, UNICEF
Report: What is Globalization? Peterson Institute for International Economics
Report: The “Protectionist Moment” That Wasn’t: American Views on Trade and Globalization, Scott LincicomeCato 
Analysis: Realizing the Potential of the G20 Compact with Africa, Christine Lagarde, IMF Blog
News: DDG Wolff: WTO Rules Are Not an Obstacle to Environmental Goals But a Means to Achieve Them, World Trade Organization
News: Austria to Shun Global Migration Pact on Sovereignty Worries, Francois Murphy, Reuters
Opinion: Ethiopia’s First Female President Can Be a Force for Reform, Yohannes GedamuAl Jazeera
Opinion: How Blockchain Technology Can Reduce Risks and Lower Costs After Disasters, John Schellhase, Devex

UPCOMING EVENTS:
November 6: The Age of Perplexity: Rethinking the World We Knew, Atlantic Council
​​​​​November 7: How Iran Will Cope with US Sanctions, Atlantic Council
November 8: Sanctions Discussion with Former Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, Atlantic Council
November 14: Cyber Risk Wednesday: The Human Element of Cybersecurity, Atlantic Council 
November 2: A Conversation With Kirstjen Nielsen, Council on Foreign Relations 
November 5-8: DC Fintech Week, Georgetown University's Institute of International Economic Law
​​November 6: IMF World Economic Outlook, George Washington University


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

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