TRADE IN ACTION October 13, 2017
THIS WEEK IN TRADE
In the context of the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF, the latter has released the full 2017 World Economic Outlook .
NAFTA: The fourth round of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade agreement is underway and has been prolonged until Oct. 17. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau is headed to Mexico to meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto after meetings on Wednesday with President Trump and members of the House Ways and Means Committee. This round of talks are expected to include discussions about including quotas for U.S. content in autos, a major bone of contention for Mexico, Canada and many companies.
Brexit update: The UK has been hoping for the EU to open trade and transition talks when Tusk chairs a summit with UK PM Theresa May in Brussels next week. However, this week European Council President Tusk effectively ruled out that EU leaders will agree to British demands to open talks on a future free trade pact but hoped for such a move in December.
In related news, the UK and the EU both sent a written statement to the WTO, outlining their desire to keep existing levels of market access after UK withdrawal with other trading partners worldwide.
Signs of Life for Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation?
"The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a proposed trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, did not include a financial services chapter before the negotiations broke down, much to the consternation of European negotiators. Last month, however, transatlantic policymakers may have turned a corner."
In a new blog post, Atlantic Council Fellow Barbara Matthews explains the potential significance of the ‘Covered Agreement’ , an agreement recently signed by the United States and the European Union. The agreement established a legally binding framework for providing mutual recognition and national treatment to insurance and reinsurance firms seeking to conduct transatlantic cross-border business. As such, it creates a framework for the free flow of capital - and supervisory information - in the insurance sector at the transatlantic level, a significant achievement for the EU and US.
News: Trump Says Open to Bilateral Canada, Mexico Pacts if NAFTA Talks, Roberta Rampton and David Ljunggren, Reuters
News: Britain Could Join NAFTA if Brexit Trade Deal Fails - Telegraph Newspaper, Reuters
Opinion; Could the UK Join NAFTA? There are Considerable Downsides, Daniel Capparelli, London School of Economics and Political Science
Q&A: Wilbur Ross on NAFTA: 'We wouldn't be wasting all this time if we weren't hopeful', CBCNews
Opinion: As Night Follows Day, a Sunset Clause in NAFTA Would Mean Lost American Jobs , John G. Murphy, US Chamber of Commerce
Analysis: Ivanka Trump Takes on Taxes, Nancy Cook, Politico
Analysis: Delivery in Progress: Pro-Growth Tax Reform, Megan Van Etten, US Chamber of Commerce
Report: Trump's Trade War Begins, Jeffrey Kucik, Foreign Affairs
Analysis: Lessons from Europe for U.S. Trade Policy: Is It Time to Separate Trade Liberalization and Investment Protection? Simon Lester, Huffington Post
News: France in No Hurry to Sign EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Macron, Reuters
Working Paper: Going it Alone in the Asia-Pacific: Regional Trade Agreements Without the United States, Peter Petri, Peterson Institute of International Economics
Analysis: EU Partners Benefit from Germany's US Export Success, Manuel Fritsch, Cologne Institute for Economic Research
Report: Information Economy Report 2017: Digitization, Trade and Development, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Report: AGOA: The US-Africa Trade Program, Claire Felter, Council on Foreign Relations
Analysis: India’s Trade Ties with the UK and EU, Maria Demertzis and Alexander Roth, Bruegel
News: EU Lawmakers Give Tentative Nod to Brexit Clearing Law That Could Clobber Britain, Huw Jones, Reuters
News: Auto Deals Warn Trump’s NAFTA Proposals May Raise Car Prices, Jamie Butter, Bloomberg
News: Up Against Germany, EU Bid for Gas Talks with Moscow Falters, Alissa de Carbonnel and Peter Maushagen, Reuters
Speech: Preserving North American Growth, Jobs and Competitiveness, Thomas Donohue, US Chamber of Commerce
TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK
Did you know…
..that according to UNESCO estimates, 130 million girls between the age of 6 and 17 are out of school and 15 million girls of primary-school age—half of them in sub-Saharan Africa— will never enter a classroom? Care reports that some countries lose more than $1 billion a year by failing to educate girls to the same level as boys. Getting all children into basic education, while raising learning standards, could boost growth by 2% annually in low-income countries.
Report: Strengthening Eurozone Solidarity While Preserving Market Discipline, Adam Lerrick, American Enterprise Institute
Report: EU Enlargement: Door Half Open or Door Half Shut? Ian Bond, Centre for European Reform
Analysis: Emerging Markets are Up and Running, The Economist
News: Exclusive: Global Regulators Close to Final Deal on Bank Capital - Sources, Huw Jones, Reuters
Interview: Will Technology Enable Workers or Replace Them? A Long-Read with Daron Acemoglu, James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute
Report: Editorial Board: Africa’s Economic Future Depends on Its Farms, Bloomberg
Report: Careers for Women in Technology Companies are a Global Challenge, Alina Tugend, New York Times
Report: World Economic Outlook, October 2017, International Monetary Fund
Webcast: Global Excess Imbalances: Risks and Policy Responses, International Monetary Fund
Webcast: The Future of Globalization, International Monetary Fund
Book Excerpt: Preserving the Post-World Order, Michael J. Mazarr, The Washington Quarterly
Book Review: Is Globalization Drawing Us Together or Tearing Us Apart? James Traub, New York Times
WHAT WE ARE READING
Analysis: Asset Prices are High Across the Board. Is it Time to Worry? The Economist
Report: Monetary Policy Without a Working Theory of Inflation, Daniel Tarullo, Brookings Institution
Blog Post: Catalonia and the Spanish Banking System, Yana Myachenkova, Bruegel
News: Macron’s Public Sector Reforms Spark Nationwide Strikes, BBC
Charts: The Middle-Income Spread, The Economist
Analysis: The Plan to Save Europe, Benjamin Haddad and Sophia Besch, Hudson Institute
Analysis: Employment in Europe and the US: The EU’s Remarkable Strength, Zsolt Darvas and David Pichler, Bruegel
Analysis: Imports and Exports are Inextricably Linked – Imports aren’t Evil, They’re a Necessary Ingredient to Greater Exports, Mark J. Perry, American Enterprise Institute
Interactive Map: EU Sanctions Map, Estonian Presidency of the Council of the EU
Analysis; Integration of Immigrants in European Labour Markets, Centre for European Policy
October 12: CNN Debate on the Global Economy, International Monetary Fund
October 17: Why Multilateral Trade Matters, Atlantic Council
October 17: Global Services Summit: Charting the Course For Growth, Coalition of Services Industries
October 19: EconNet: A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies, Inter-American Development Bank
October 19: Policies to Promote Women’s Economic Opportunity, The Hamilton Project
October 20: Can Trump’s Ambitious Deregulatory Agenda Succeed?, Brookings Institution
October 26: Renegotiating NAFTA: Prospects and Challenges, CATO Institute
November 1: US Immigration & Labor Update: How to Manage the New Challenges for Business Immigration & Employment in the United States, European American Chamber of Commerce
November 9: WEBINAR: Selling Food into the European Union: What you Need to Know as a US Company, European American Chamber of Commerce
December 7: An Update on the Transatlantic Relationship with the European Union Ambassador to the United States, European American Chamber of Commerce
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Michael Farquharson, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Jack Reynolds, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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