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October 18, 2018
10 18 2018 tile

HEADLINES:
US: The Trump administration formally announced trade talks with the European Union, the UK and Japan on October 16 as President Trump looks to further his “America First” trade policy.
US-EU: On October 14, President Trump lamented “nobody treats us much worse than the European Union,” as US-EU trade negotiations are still in the scoping phase. On October 17, a day after meeting with European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom,  US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that they need “tangible progress” and that President Trump’s “patience is not unlimited”- he reiterated the possibility of car tariffs if there is no progress soon. 
EU: On October 17, EU member states authorized the signature and conclusion of the trade and investment agreements between the EU and Singapore. On the same day, the EU also adopted the EU-Vietnam trade and investment agreements, paving the way for their signature and conclusion. The 12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit takes place on October 18-19, 2018 in Brussels, Belgium. The discussions will focus on the theme "Europe and Asia: global partners for global challenges". The ASEM summit will then be followed by the EU-Korea summit and the EU-ASEAN leaders' meeting on October 19. 
USMCA: On October 15, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau stated that Canada is ready to reopen trade talks with China, as the final version of the USMCA included more watered down language regarding trade with China. US Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell stated, morning of October 16, that USMCA will not be voted on in Congress until 2019. 
Brexit: Brussels is giving the UK a 24-hour deadline to settle its position on Brexit before responding to Prime Minister May’s disengagement from talks on an EU exit agreement. 


UPCOMING: 
US-China: President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping plan to meet at a multilateral summit in late November, according to officials in both nations.
US-Philippines: The US and Philippines plan to announce the start of their free trade negotiations in November. 


SPOTLIGHT

Rome and Brussels Go Head to Head in Budget Battle 
By Alvaro Salto-Weiss

Alvaro Salto-Weiss of the Atlantic Council’s Global Business & Economics Program reports on Italy’s most recent budget proposal. Despite warnings from Brussels, the ruling Italian coalition of La Lega and the 5 Star Movement submitted its 2019 budget proposal to the European Union (EU) on October 15. A combination of tax cuts, increased social spending, and a roll back of pension reforms will cause the deficit to jump from 0.8 percent to 2.4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), according to the government’s calculations. The proposal, which creates a deficit that is more than triple the level desired by the EU, has left investors jittery about the trajectory of the Italian economy. Brussels has until October 23 to respond, but there is already ample evidence of how it will do so. Read more here.                          

TRADE:
Report: Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States US Department of Treasury
USTR Statement: Trump Administration Announces Intent to Negotiate Trade Agreements with Japan, the European Union and the United Kingdom, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Analysis: Trump Embarks on Bilateral Trade Talks to Pressure China, Alan Rappeport and Keith Bradsher, New York Times
News: What to Watch in China GDP Report: Trade, Autos, Manufacturing, Matthew Boesler, Bloomberg
News: The End of Cheap Shipping From China, Alana Semuels, The Atlantic 
Opinion: With His China Trade War, Trump Aims to Alter the Course of History Daniel Ikenson, China US Focus
Analysis: How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs, Michele Ruta, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha and Francois de Soyres, World Bank
Opinion: Why China Shouldn't Wait Out Trade Feud With U.S.  Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg
News:Trump Threatens Another Round of China Tariffs, Jennifer Epstein, Bloomberg 
Opinion: China’s Economy May Suffer Under the Trade War But the US Shouldn’t Count on Stopping It, Andrew Leung, South China Morning Post
Opinion: How Trump’s Trade War Is Driving China Nuts, Thomas Peter, Politico 
Analysis: Four Lessons on Global Trade from the IMF-World Banks Meetings, James Politi,  Financial Times
Analysis: Transatlantic Privacy Deal Vital to Trade, Wilbur Ross, Financial Times
News: Trans-Atlantic Trade Truce Tested by U.S. Official's Outburst, Jonathan Stearns, Bloomberg
Analysis: Trade and Immigration Have Never Been So Popular in America, C.K., The Economist
Analysis: Will NAFTA 2.0 Really Boost Mexican Wages? Carrie Kahn, National Public Radio 
Opinion: The China Clause in USMCA is American Posturing. But It’s No Veto, Pascale Massot, Globe and Mail 
News:Brexit Talks Reach Stand-Off as May Brands Draft Deal a “Non-Starter” George Parker and Alex Barker,  Financial Times
Analysis: British Trade Negotiator’s Conundrum: Can He Actually Make Any Deals? Max Colchester, Wall Street Journal


FACTOID OF THE WEEK:

Did you know… 
that according to the World Economic Forum's new Global Competitiveness Report 2018, the US ranks first overall, and 9th in trade openness with a score of 71.4? Read the full report here. 

GLOBALIZATION:
Report:Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum
Report: Growing Economies Through Gender Parity, Council on Foreign Relations
Interview: Secretary Jacob Lew: Women Contribute to Economic Growth, Alexandra Bro, Council on Foreign Relations 
Speech: Fair and Ethical Trade – From Vision to Action, European Commision
Analysis:Everything You Know about Cross-Country Convergence Is (Now) Wrong , Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur and Arvind Subramanian, PIIE
Report: Women’s Workplace Equality Index, Council on Foreign Relations
Analysis: Brexit Provides Early Proof of Deglobalization’s Costs, Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal
Chart: Chart of the Day: The World Bank Ranks Each Country Based on Its Human Capital, Joanne Lu, UN Dispatch 
Opinion: There May Soon Be Three Internets. America’s Won’t Necessarily Be the Best, Editorial Board, New York Times 

WHAT WE ARE READING:
Survey: Eurobarometer 2018, European Parliament 
Analysis: Global Economic Leaders Should Prepare for ‘Unknown Unknowns’ of Climate Changes, Valerie Rouxel-Laxton, Atlantic Council
Opinion: US-China Trade War is Really a Clash of Civilizations and Ideologies, Zhang Lin, South China Morning Post
Analysis:China v America, The End of Engagement, How the World’s Two Superpowers Have Become Rivals The Economist
News: UK Support for Remain Jumps in EU Survey, Eddy Wax, Politico
Analysis: Moldova Grudge Could Cost U.K. Access to $1.7 Trillion Projects , Bryce Baschuk, Bloomberg 
Analysis: The Use and Misuse of Economic Statecraft, Jacob J. Lew and Richard Nephew, Foreign Affairs 
Infographic:Mapped: The Absent Ambassadors, Elizabeth Miles and Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy
Analysis: Amazon Wants India to Shop Online, and It’s Battling Walmart for Supremacy, Brad Stone and Saritha Rai, Bloomberg  

UPCOMING EVENTS:
October 22:
 Indo-Pacific Economic Architecture: From Blueprint to Reality, Atlantic Council 
October 22:
 Completing Europe: Will Macedonia Seize its Moment? Atlantic Council
November 1: 
A New Brazilian Economic Order? The Post-Election Outlook, Atlantic Council
November 7: How Iran Will Cope with US Sanctions, Atlantic Council
November 8: Sanctions Discussion with Former Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, Atlantic Council
October 12:  Ninth Annual Back-to-School Event: Responses to the Global Refugee Crisis, Council on Foreign Relations
October 23: Global Artificial Intelligence Race, Council on Foreign Relations
November 5-8: DC Fintech Week, Georgetown University's Institute of International Economic Law


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

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