TRADE IN ACTION September 21, 2018
Global: The United Nations 73rd Annual General Assembly commenced it’s high-level meetings on September 25 and will continue until October 5. The World Trade Forum is taking place in Florence on September 28/29 and focuses on trade, development, and sustainability.
NAFTA: With the Trump administration expected to turn over agreement text to Congress by Sept. 30, it remains unclear if they will be able to deliver a trilateral deal. With both the Mexican and US administration expected to publish the text of a Mexico-US deal on Friday night, it is likely that Canada will be left out but could get the option to join the deal at a later date.
Trade War: US Customs and Border protection began collecting the new 10% tariffs Trump imposed on $200 billion in imports from China on the 24th, which is set to rise to 25% on January 1st. China’s retaliatory tariffs went into action on September 24 as well.
Iran: The remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal--including Germany, France, UK, Russia and China--on September 24 agreed to keep working to maintain trade with Tehran by devising a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV).
Brexit: German Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed a recent Brexit proposal in which the UK could continue to have access to the EU single market for goods only after Brexit, stating the UK cannot pick and choose parts of the single market. On September 25, the likelihood of a second referendum increased as Britain's opposition Labour party was voting on a policy that would put a new public vote on the table if Prime Minister Theresa May failed to get an eventual Brexit deal through the UK Parliament.
Trump Puts America First at the United Nations
By Ashish Kumar Sen and David A. Wemer
Atlantic Council’s Sen and Wemer provide an overview of President Trump’s address to the United Nations General Assembly on the September 25. Their point by point analysis of the address features commentary from various Atlantic Council experts, including Bart Oosterveld of the Global Business and Economics Program. For more insight, click here.
Trump Accuses China of Meddling in Midterms. It's All About Trade
By David Wemer
US President Donald J. Trump accused China of attempting to interfere in the US midterm elections in November at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in New York on September 26. He offered no specific evidence of China’s purported “meddling” during his speech, but tied it directly to the trade issue, saying Beijing wants him to lose “because I am the first president ever to challenge China on trade and we are winning on trade.” Our Atlantic Council experts weigh in on the issue here.
Press Release: WTO Downgrades Outlook for Global Trade as Risks Accumulate, WTO
News:World Trade’s Top Court Nears Breakdown as U.S. Blocks Another WTO Judge, Tom Miles, The Globe and Mail
News:Trump Signs Revised Korean Trade Deal, Jim Tankersley, The New York Times
News:US and Japan Reach ‘Basic Agreement’ on Ways to Promote Trade, Rintaro Tobita, Nikkei Asian Review
News:Trump Pressures Japan to Open Bilateral Trade Talks, James Polti, Demetri Sevastopulo, Robin Harding, Financial Times
News:NAFTA Could Soon Morph into 'HALFTA' Unless Canada Comes on Board, Jeff Cox, CNBC
Opinion: Why Canada Won’t Budge on Trade, Drew Fagan, The New York Times
Analysis:Trade and Tariffs in 5 Charts: A 2018 Midterm Report, Manuela Tobias, Politifact
News:China Says US Trying to Force it to Submit on Trade as New Tariffs Kick In, Se Young Lee and Min Zhang, Reuters
Analysis: US Reliance on Obscure Imports From China Points to Strategic Vulnerability, Chuin-Wei Yap, The Wall Street Journal
Opinion:The Unlikely, Obvious Solution to the Trade War, Yukon Huang, The New York Times
Analysis:Trump and China Formalize Tariffs on $260 Billion of Imports and Look Ahead to Next Phase Chad Brown, Euijin Jung, Zhiyao Lu, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Analysis:What China Could Do to Counter US Tariffs, Srinivas Mazumdaru, Deutsche Welle
Official Statement:Secretary-General Launches United Nations Youth Strategy, ‘Generation Unlimited’ Partnership, Marking Start of Organization’s New Era for Young People, The United Nations
Speech:Secretary General’s Address to the General Assembly,The United Nations
Analysis: Tracking Private Finance to Meet the Sustainable Development Goals, George Ingram and Sally Paxton, Brookings Institute
News:North Korea wants to join IMF and World Bank, Pursue Economic Reform: Moon, Dagyum Ji, NK News
News: Possible' for Chinese Yuan to Fall Another 10 Percent if Trade War Escalates, Economist Says Kelly Olsen, CNBC
News:Trade War Casts Shadow Over Tech Manufacturers, Kathrin Hille, Financial Times
News:World Bank Warns Gaza Economy is ‘Collapsing’,Al Jazeera
Opinion:The US and the World Need a UN That Works, Editorial Board, Bloomberg
Opinion:How to Fix the UN and Why We Should, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Foreign Policy
Analysis:Why the Gig Economy May Not Be the Workforce of the Future, Christopher Rugaber, Chicago Tribune
WHAT WE ARE READING:
Speech:Remarks by President Trump to the 73rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly,The White House
Analysis:Europe Unlikely to Avoid Trump’s Iran Sanctions Samantha Sultoon, Atlantic Council
Analysis: Is There a Remittance Trap? Ralph Chami, Ekkehard Ernst, Connel Fullenkamp and Anne Oeking, International Monetary Fund
Opinion:One Small Step for Feminist Foreign Policy, Lyric Thompson and Christina Asquith, Foreign Policy
Opinion: In Search of an Iran Strategy, Jon Alterman, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Analysis:The Myth of Authoritarian Competence, Vance Serchuk, The Atlantic
Report:US-China Relations: Is it Time to End the Engagement? Jeffrey Bader, The Brookings Institute
October 4:Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices, Atlantic Council
October 4: A Discussion with Bharat Karnad, Atlantic Council
October 5:The Next Battle of the Atlantic? A conversation with Admiral James G. Foggo, Atlantic Council
October 9:The Arc of Crisis in the MENA Region, Atlantic Council
October 18: Championing the Frontlines of Freedom: Erasing the “Grey Zone,” Atlantic Council
October 1: The Belt and Road at Five, Center for Strategic and International Studies
October 4: The Asian Financial Crisis: Indonesia’s Recovery 20 Years On, Chatham House
October 5: John B. Hurford Memorial Lecture with John Kerry, Council on Foreign Relations
October 9: US Economic Policy with Kevin Hassett, Council on Foreign Relations
October 10: The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Brookings Institute
November 5-8: DC Fintech Week, Georgetown University's Institute of International Economic Law
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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