Bart Oosterveld

  • Trump, Xi Reach Trade War Truce… For Now

    US President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on December 1 agreed to a truce in their trade war in order to allow time for negotiations. In what is a significant de-escalation of a conflict that has been marked by tit-for-tat tariffs, Trump and Xi put on hold threatened tariff increases for ninety days.

    The agreement was reached during a dinner meeting between the two leaders after the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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  • Will There Be Trade Breakthroughs in Argentina? What To Watch at the G20

    On November 30, global leaders will convene in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to discuss areas of economic cooperation and the world trading system. The tenth Group of Twenty (G20) summit, which convenes the leaders of twenty of the largest economies in the world, will focus on fair and sustainable development, but the numerous side meetings between allies and adversaries alike could provide some of the most significant diplomatic action.

    US President Donald J. Trump will not only attend the G20 meetings but also host meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Argentine President Mauricio Macri, South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Additionally, Trump is expected to...

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  • Brexit: The Road Ahead

    At an extraordinary summit on November 25, European Union leaders approved a draft agreement with British Prime Minister Theresa May setting out the terms of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU.

    It is hard to understate the importance of this milestone in the Brexit process. The 585-page draft agreement comprehensively dictates the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU on a broad range of issues, from the UK’s financial obligations toward the EU, the Northern Ireland border regime, citizens’ rights, jurisdiction delimitation, and financial services regulation among others.

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  • May's Brexit Deal: With Cabinet Nod Secured, Next Stop Parliament

    British Prime Minister Theresa May said on November 14 that her Cabinet had agreed to a draft Brexit agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU). Following a five-hour meeting with her Cabinet ministers in London, May said that the decision was “a decisive step which enables us to move on and finalize the deal in the days ahead.” The deal, which must next be approved by the British Parliament, faces significant opposition both from within May’s Conservative Party and from other parties.

    "Theresa May has finally reached the first base camp on Britain’s way to exiting the EU," said Fran Burwell, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative.

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  • How Will the Outcome of the Midterms Affect Trump's Policy Options?

    Democrats captured the House of Representatives while Republicans strengthened their Senate majority in the US midterm elections on November 6.

    We asked our analysts what they believe are the policy implications of this outcome. Here’s what they had to say*:

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  • Rome's Options in Budget Battle with Brussels

    In light of the European Commission’s rejection of its budget proposal, the Italian government essentially has three options: “cave quickly and fall into line with the EU’s demands, cave slowly, or take Italy off the cliff and leave the euro,” according to Megan Greene, managing director and chief economist for Manulife Asset Management.

    The Italian government’s initial reaction—to brush off Brussels’ concerns—has shown that “the cave quickly option is off the table now,” according to Greene.

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  • World Economic Outlook: Trade Tensions and Tariffs a Major Threat to Global Economic Growth

    This week, the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group (WBG) will convene for their annual meetings in Indonesia to discuss issues of global concern, including global economic growth. In the context of the meetings, the IMF publishes the World Economic Outlook (WEO) which analyzes global growth prospects in the short- and medium-term and the risks which impede these prospects. While this October’s report still predicts a steady expansion for 2018-19 at a 3.7 percent growth rate, this forecast is 0.2 percent lower than in April. One of the major reasons for this downward correction are recent trade policies which are expected to continue to be a downward risk leading to further disruption, uncertainty, and weaker growth.

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  • Pence Takes Aim at China

    US Vice President Mike Pence took direct aim at Beijing in an October 4 speech in which he accused China of “pursuing a comprehensive and coordinated campaign to undermine support for the president, our agenda, and our nation’s most cherished ideals.”

    Pence’s speech followed similar remarks by US President Donald J. Trump at the United Nations Security Council on September 26. Trump there accused Beijing of “meddling… because I am the first president ever to challenge China on trade and we are winning on trade.” China and the United States have been locked in a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs after Trump placed restrictions on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods in June. On September 17, the United States placed...

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  • Meet the New NAFTA: The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement

    Canada agreed, moments before the clock ran out on a September 30 deadline, to sign on to a trade agreement between the United States and Mexico that would replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new agreement will be known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA.

    US President Donald J. Trump announced the deal at the White House on October 1 describing it as a “brand new deal to terminate and replace NAFTA.” With this breakthrough, Trump has fulfilled his campaign promise to rewrite NAFTA, which he has called “the worst trade deal in history.” The new agreement was negotiated “on the principle of fairness and reciprocity,” said Trump.

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  • IMF Throws Argentina a $57 Billion Lifeline

    On September 24, Mauricio Macri shared a dinner table (some laughs and an animated conversation) with Christine Lagarde in New York City. The Argentine president told guests at the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen Awards dinner about the great relationship he had with the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Two days after President Macri was honored with a Global Citizen Award from the Atlantic Council, two days later he received even more good news: the IMF had agreed to increase its support to Argentina to $57.1 billion, the largest loan in the Fund’s history, to be disbursed over three years.

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