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Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

April 11, 2021

The future of security in space: A thirty-year US strategy

By Clementine G. Starling, Mark J. Massa, Lt Col Christopher P. Mulder, and Julia T. Siegel

Key takeaways

• Space development has reached an inflection point, transitioning from a phase of discovery to phases of security and commerce.
• Spacefaring countries and companies are harnessing new technologies to push new boundaries, uncovering value while simultaneously opening the door to chaos and competition.
• The United States and its allies and partners must take action over the next three decades to secure a future of security and prosperity.

A new vision for space

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Table of contents

Foreword
Executive summary
I. Strategic context
II. Key goals for US security strategy in space
III. Major elements of the strategy
IV. Guidelines for implementation
V. Conclusion

There will come an age in the far-off years when Ocean shall unloose the bonds of things, when the whole broad earth shall be revealed, when Tethys shall disclose new worlds and Thule not be the limit of the lands.

Seneca’s “Medea”

Foreword

Some national strategies are designed to endure for a few years, a single administration at most—but such an approach will not suffice for outer space.

Security and prosperity in space are too important to life on Earth, and too sensitive to long-term trends, to address with short-term strategies. The security of assets in space will have a defining impact on future terrestrial conflicts. Economic prosperity on Earth increasingly depends on data transmitted through space. Even more so than many domains on Earth, security and prosperity in space depend on long-term technology developments. That is why the authors of this strategy paper call for the United States, in concert with its allies and partners, to implement a thirty-year strategy for space.

The ambitions of this strategy paper are bold enough to merit such a timeframe. The authors call for an overhaul of the body of international law governing space. They make a compelling case to replace the 1967 Outer Space Treaty with a new, foundational space treaty that addresses the security and commercial realities of space in the twenty-first century. The authors call for a new coalition of the willing to push back on recent destabilizing Russian and Chinese activities in space. New alliances—and existing ones—need to step up their commitments to security in outer space. An attack in outer space could have devastating consequences on Earth, and no ally should be left without support because existing treaties do not yet fully recognize the consequences of space attacks. Finally, the legal, security, and physical architectures that the United States develops over the coming decades must explore opportunities for the commercial sector to plug in, or even take over, elements. Not only will commercial firms be crucial to developing the technologies that will define space activity, but there will also, by 2050, be a range of profit-making activities in space that one can only begin to imagine today. The United States can develop plans for space now in a way that enables it to benefit later.

Crucially, the authors of this strategy paper take on two developments in space that require deep thinking now because of their impact in coming decades. First, this paper considers point-to-point transportation around the Earth transiting space. As space-launch costs continue to plummet, the military is already conceiving the use of space ports for thirty-minute transportation to any point on Earth. Clever commercial applications will be only a few years behind. Work must begin on legal and diplomatic frameworks now. Second, this strategy explores the development of the Lagrange points—orbits in the Earth-Sun and Earth-Moon systems with advantageous, stable gravitational attraction. Space agencies already understand the benefits of placing satellites at these points. Will these become chokepoints over which spacefaring nations battle, or oases of future space commerce? This strategy suggests that the United States must work for the latter, while being prepared for the former.

The bold, forward-looking recommendations of this strategy call for the kind of long-term thinking and practical actions that the United States needs today if it is to secure the commanding heights of security and prosperity a generation hence. Our hope is that space, foreign policy, and national security policy makers are inspired to act based on this landmark strategy paper. We are.

Executive summary

Across cultures, centuries, and continents, exploration has been core to the human experience. For the United States, where crucial advances in astronomy, rocketry, and space exploration took place, its identity as a spacefaring nation is ingrained in its history, society, and self-image. As Ed Weiler, the Hubble Space Telescope’s first chief scientist, said some thirty years ago, “The universe is even more complex than we dream. Almost everywhere we look, we find something bizarre.”

Today, activity in space seems an unremarkable part of daily life, but the possibility for space to further transform and inspire society is as great as the headiest days of the 1960s space race. Many questions remain unanswered about the future of space development, but space remains critical for global security and prosperity and will become even more so in the decades and centuries to come. Conducted over the course of a year, this Atlantic Council Strategy Paper provides an ambitious thirty-year strategy for the United States, alongside its allies and partners, to harness today’s innovation, shape the future trajectory of space activity and discovery, and secure this evolving domain to ensure future prosperity so that humankind can exponentially reap its benefits.

Figure 1: The increasing congestion of Earth orbits, 1975 vs. 2019

Since the launch of the first satellite in 1957, space has grown congested with more and smaller satellites being launched into Earth orbits. Limited space situational awareness and insufficient space traffic management risk satellite collisions, which could generate space debris endangering the use of these orbits. 

Slide to see the increased congestion of objects orbiting Earth (left) and expansion of development further from Earth’s surface (right) from 1975 to 2019.

Images: NASA

Four developments defining the future of space

Four major developments together provide both an opportunity and a requirement for the United States and its allies and partners to define the future of space activity and adopt a long-term space strategy. These are:

Increased reliance on space for human activity. For the United States, its allies and partners, spacefaring nations, and humanity at large, space holds the potential to revolutionize Earth’s economy, security, and, potentially, the nature of human civilization itself. Outer space has, for decades, been a vital resource—one that both enables security and prosperity on Earth and is rapidly becoming the locus of an increasingly large share of humankind’s economy. Space enables critical economic and security activities on Earth. The global economy depends on communications, navigation, timing, and remote sensing that occur in space—the US economy more so than any other. For the United States, space is also essential for national security missions, including launching intercontinental ballistic missiles, detecting and tracking missile launches, communicating securely with forces deployed across the globe, and observing otherwise-denied areas.

A promise of radical abundance and resilience. Recognizing the known and unknown values of space to humankind means that this still-relatively-new domain will increase in importance in the coming decades and centuries. Humankind still has much to discover in this vastly unknown frontier and enabling further exploration will uncover resources integral to the resilient existence of life on Earth. Space holds virtually unlimited sources of energy, vast amounts of useful materials, and untapped potential to provide a “radical abundance” of resources for humankind in the future. These developments could lead to “radical resilience” for societies, or generally position humanity to better respond to challenges, like climate change, on Earth. Space has been invaluable for producing wealth, spurring commerce, and winning wars for decades—but a qualitatively different aspect to space is emerging today and may be primary in thirty years’ time. This new paradigm for space prioritizes the security and economic activities that occur within space itself, not just those they enable on Earth.

The phased development of space. Space is no longer the exclusive domain of scientific exploration and discovery. As with all new domains, space is undergoing a transition from one phase to another which raises new questions about the ways activity in space will be defined in the future and who will define it. Space is transitioning from a phase of “discovery” to phases of “security” and “commerce.” These next phases will be defined by an explosion of commercial activity and security operations necessary to protect that activity, safeguard access and maneuverability, prevent malign actions, and pave the way for more routinized space activity. The time is rapidly approaching when space’s value to security on Earth will be matched by the need to secure the economic activity occurring within Earth orbit. Even as commercial concerns begin to dominate Earth orbit in the short term, over the next thirty years, the frontier of economic activity in space will likely expand to encompass cislunar space, the spherical area formed by the radius between the Earth and the Moon. To bridge this phased transition in space, the United States, in concert with its allies and partners, must set forth a framework to protect sovereignty and property in space.

An explosion of space actors. Unlike the 1960s space race, space is no longer a domain in which few nation-states operate. Over the past several decades, there has been an explosion of actors with activities and interests in space that will continue to define its trajectory. While the United States still leads in space by many measures, including its share of global space investments and numbers of satellites in orbit, there are a far greater number of countries operating in space today. Russia, China, the European Union, Japan, and India have all deployed their own global or regional satellite navigation networks comparable to the US Global Positioning System (GPS). A legion of smaller national players—from Luxembourg to New Zealand to the United Arab Emirates—are playing in the arenas of space commerce, exploration, and security. Multipolarity in space presents a range of challenges and opportunities for the United States to achieve security and prosperity in space.

Figure 2: An explosion of nations in space

Space has seen a proliferation of actors since nations first began launching space-related agencies and programs in the mid-1950s

Commerce as a driver of activity. Nation-states are far from the only entities operating in space. Corporations have been making money in Earth orbit for half a century and will continue to lead innovation in space, creating opportunities and challenges for governments. New technology and business revolutions—in microelectronics, telecommunications, and space launch—have made a compelling business case for commercial firms to conduct missions in low Earth orbit (LEO) that had traditionally been situated in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). The result of this trend—massive constellations of small satellites—will upend the commercial space business and transform the global communication industry. Indeed, while traditional advances in defense technologies (like ballistic missiles) have driven space commerce and exploration in the past, it is increasingly commercial developments (like on-orbit satellite servicing) that are driving defense capabilities and concerns going forward.

The security (ad)vantage point of space. From a security perspective, there is an urgent need for the United States and its allies and partners to shape the future trajectory of space. In many ways, space is the ultimate “high ground,” as it contains key “terrain” that is very advantageous for surveillance, warfighting, and rapidly expanding commercial uses. This high ground is becoming more and more useful for nations—including the United States and its allies and partners, as well as competitors like China and Russia. Securing this high ground over the coming decades is imperative for spacefaring nations to gain and maintain an advantageous position.

The return of great-power competition. Increased competition among the United States, China, and Russia on Earth further complicates the security picture in space. Great-power competitors may find themselves in a struggle for space resources and this high ground. The winners of this struggle will likely be those nations that can establish a generally accepted space framework, which is why the United States must urgently seek to shape this framework. How nations interact; develop space capabilities; and advance future tactical, operational, and strategic plans will shape the future trajectory of space. If great-power competitors are unable to agree on key space norms, rules, and frameworks, a long-term struggle for space superiority may escalate into tension and potentially even boil over into warfare. The authors of this report lay out a strategic plan to not only prevent a space catastrophe from occurring, but to encourage dialogue and planning to unlock new opportunities and innovation. The United States should lead now to shape the rules of the road for space and ensure favorable frameworks are developed and adhered to, otherwise these rules will be written for it. To realize this potential, it is imperative that policymakers act now and in accordance with a long-term strategy.

Risk of disruption and denial of space activity and access. Since the 1990s, the United States’ expeditionary model of warfare has relied on space capabilities for both tactical and strategic intelligence, missile-launch warning, and communication. Meanwhile, China and Russia are fielding increasingly sophisticated counterspace weapons capable of disrupting, denying, or destroying US and allied space assets in conflict or crisis. The saliency of denying space access is likely to increase in great-power competition. The vulnerability of space systems to lower-cost cyberattack means that other, smaller competitors could also achieve counterspace effects. The creation of the Russian Aerospace Forces (2015), the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (2015), and the US Space Force (2019) all point to competitors perceiving space as a warfighting domain.

The edge of humanity’s routine activity in space is moving beyond GEO to encompass cislunar space, the sphere formed by the Earth-Moon radius. This opens new opportunities and risks that any future strategy must come to grips with. As the United States continues to plan a crewed lunar landing in the 2020s, commercial firms are racing to support exploration efforts (and even resource extraction) on the Moon. At the Lagrange points—areas of particular orbital stability in the Earth-Moon system—nation-states are deploying satellites for research and, increasingly, military reconnaissance. The Lagrange points (and other advantageous orbital regions) may become contested as nations seek to observe and operate in cislunar space, and activity there will become all the more important in the coming decades.

Strategic approach

These developments—today and through 2050—demand a new US approach to space. This Atlantic Council Strategy Paper offers space, foreign policy, and national security policymakers a roadmap for navigating this new space age.

Space is in desperate need of a long-term strategy

Given the pace of major trends, a short-term strategy for space is insufficient. While the 2020 US National Space Policy and 2018 US National Space Strategy helpfully identified principles, goals, and guidelines for US space activity, a longer-term lens is needed. This strategy does not profess to predict or anticipate all changes that may occur in space over the next three decades, but its ambitious timeframe is deliberate to raise questions and encourage the long-term strategic vision necessary. It is imperative for the United States and its allies to get out ahead and shape the future of space in ways favorable to them. This paper proposes the United States takes a phased approach to implementing a long-term strategy, including milestones in the short, medium, and long term to achieve security and prosperity in space and on Earth (enabled by space). Thinking strategically will help shape the context in which novel technologies and activities are introduced, even if specific technological advancements are largely unpredictable in the thirty-year time horizon. Any strategy that is implemented should be updated over time and will require regular reevaluation of goals and policies. The United States, in concert with its allies and partners, has the opportunity now to shape the future of space over the next thirty years if it takes action today.

The importance of allies and partners

Realizing the full potential of space requires that the United States work with many spacefaring nations, including existing allies and new partners, and in some instances with competitors. This strategy seeks to set forth a future for space that is free, secure, and prosperous. But, this strategy prepares for the eventuality that some nation-states may harbor malignant intent. It will be critical to monitor the space strategy and policy of US competitors—which are sure to evolve in the timeframe of this strategy—to determine where cooperation is possible and where competition is necessary.

The strategy

Vision and strategic goals

The vision of this strategy is to ensure the space domain remains harmonious, fully accessible, organized, and regulated. This will allow humankind to reap the benefits of space resources in perpetuity. The key goals of this strategy are to:

• promote stability, harmony, and freedoms among space actors by establishing a rules-based order for space;
• deter hostile action and secure US and allied space assets, access to, and freedom of navigation within the global commons of space; and
• foster US and global prosperity through the continued expansion of space commerce.

A blueprint for securing space by 2050

This strategy paper provides the following blueprint for the United States and its allies and partners to take to secure space in the long term. It includes the following four steps, each of which is elaborated below:

1. provide guidelines for space governance, laying out “rules of the road” for safe and secure operations in space;
2. defend space access from those nation-states—particularly great-power competitors—which would seek to deny it;
3. accelerate space commerce critical for space development through clear regulation and targeted investments; and
4. intentionally push the envelope of security and commercial activity to embrace cislunar space—the area between the Earth and the Moon.

Principal recommendations

To accomplish these goals, the strategy recommends graduated actions to be taken in the short (2021-2025), medium (2025-2040), and long (2040-2050) term. Over the three-decade time period, this strategy calls for the United States to:

I. Strategic context

Space in 2050 will look vastly different from space today. Over the next decade alone, the number of satellites could quintuple as government and industry entities launch various missions. While such proliferation of activity will enhance space-based capabilities, enabling universal Internet access, and enhancing Earth-observation and data-collection capabilities, it also risks further space debris triggering an unstoppable chain of collisions. Space is currently undergoing a paradigm shift, as commercial entities are developing and fielding the technologies that are the key drivers of space utilization. Indeed, inventive space companies are expanding the concept of what is possible in space, eyeing space tourism in the near future, and simultaneously growing the space economy to what could be a trillion-dollar enterprise by 2040. In the long term, commercial and state entities will see novel levels of cislunar activity, requiring ISRU and onsite, three-dimensional (3D) manufacturing to keep pace with space activity. Indeed, spaceflight could underpin resiliency on Earth, opening access to space-based energy and material resources. Yet, with the realization of such value in the space domain, the future may see an increased use of space by militaries, including great-power competitors China and Russia. China is racing to develop capacity for its own permanent space station, cislunar supremacy, and deep-space exploration within the next thirty years. Despite the expansive future of space, the current space framework is rooted in the past. The future is just around the corner, and protecting space will cultivate innovation, wealth, and security to the benefit of all humanity.

To achieve security and prosperity in space—just as in any domain—national efforts must progress through three phases:

Discovery

The first phase is scientific and requires civil agencies (like the National Aeronautics and Space Agency [NASA]) to engage in missions of exploration, setting the parameters for the new domain and establishing sources of value.

Security

The second phase, security, requires administrative and defense bodies (like the Federal Aviation Administration [FAA] and US Space Force) to provide the public goods of security and freedom of navigation in the domain.

Commerce

The third phase is commercial, where private-sector entities (like the many commercial space firms operating today) build an economy around the new domain, justifying the national investments made in the first two phases.

Today, space, and Earth’s orbit specifically, is on the cusp of transitioning from phase two to phase three, with commercial entities eager to leverage space for private business ends. Within thirty years, the frontier of space commercialization will likely expand from the edge of GEO to cislunar space. However, with the regulation and security of space not yet well established, the world risks a new Wild West or Scramble for Space.

Generally, this bold strategy for space assumes that the future strategic environment will be distinct, and in ways unpredictably so, from the present strategic environment. Specifically, this strategy assumes that the primary driver for space security will be space commerce, that strong alliances will prove just as relevant (or even more relevant) to space activity as to Earth-based activity, and that the strategic geography of space—key access points and orbits—will be become even more critical and contested. This strategy paper attempts to identify primary areas that need improved norms, regulation, and laws. It is impossible to identify all issues in space that will emerge over the next three decades. However, the positions, offices, and bodies that this strategy paper proposes will be well positioned to take on these challenges in due time.

Routinization of Earth orbit

The promise of cislunar space

Commercial and defense technology

Private-sector engagement

Routinization of Earth orbit

Rather than being exceptional, it is becoming routine that major countries find that their national security and economic interests extend to space. Indeed, the days are numbered that Earth orbit will be considered more a part of outer space than an integral part of Earth’s economic, political, and social structures. Because activity in Earth orbit is becoming so routine, and is proceeding at an increasing pace, questions of space sustainability and the consequences of debris in Earth orbit are coming to the fore.

Small- and medium-sized countries are fielding research, intelligence, and communications assets in Earth orbit. Major powers are gearing up their militaries to increase space situational awareness, defend their space assets, and exercise space control. Smaller countries are betting the future of their economies on space commerce. Commercial entities are preparing to develop entirely new lines of business in orbit. The simultaneous increase in the space economy and the degrading space security environment may touch off a “space rush.”

The space rush of the 2020s differs from the space race of the 1950s and 1960s, when the United States and the Soviet Union dominated space exploration and development. Today, more than eighty national space programs around the globe have entered the space rush, contributing to space advancements while increasing space congestion. Spacefaring nations, along with non-state space entities, are partaking in the competition to seize upon vast opportunities ranging from commercial wealth to military dominance.

Who controls low-earth orbit controls near-Earth space. Who controls near-Earth space dominates Terra. Who dominates Terra determines the destiny of humankind.

Everett Dolman

Great-power competition

Competition among the great powers—the United States, China, and Russia—is the defining feature of international security on Earth as it is in space.

United States

The United States relies on space to enable its expeditionary way of war and perceives growing threats to its ability to rely on space in high-end conflict. China and Russia, according to the US 2020 Defense Space Strategy, “present the greatest strategic threat due to their development, testing, and deployment of counter space capabilities and their associated military doctrine for employment in conflict extending to space.” Committed to preparing to deter and prevail in conflicts in space, the United States established the US Space Force in 2019 as its first new military service since 1947.

China

China sees space as a commanding height in modern warfare, one which is an asymmetric vulnerability for the United States, and one which is thoroughly integrated with the cyber and electromagnetic domains. In 2015, a major reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) regrouped various elements of the PLA into a service-like Strategic Support Force (SSF), which included cyber, electromagnetic, and space warfare branches. This reorganization coincided with the PLA’s adoption of “winning informationized local wars” as its military strategy, highlighting the importance of controlling space.

Russia

The Russian Federation regards control of aerospace as essential to its national security and strategic deterrence. Russia has revived from its Soviet past perhaps the world’s most sophisticated arsenal of anti-satellite weapons, including direct-ascent, co-orbital, and directed energy modes. Russia’s space doctrine—defending from space threats by holding space assets at risk—is reflected in its military organization and diplomacy. Russia reorganized its military forces in 2015 to place its air forces, space forces, and air and missile defense forces under one service, the Aerospace Forces.

More states in space

Paraguay, New Zealand, Luxembourg, and the United Arab Emirates offer four examples of how governments are seizing upon emerging opportunities.

Paraguay

The Paraguay Space Agency, established in 2014, pursues strategic partnerships for both capacity building and technology transfer, such as collaborating with India for resource mapping, remote sensing for agriculture, and satellite manufacture and launch. The Paraguay Space Agency’s partnership with India is notable, given the prevalence of Chinese investment in Latin American space programs.

New Zealand

With the establishment of the New Zealand Space Agency in 2016, New Zealand opened its “front door” for space activity. New Zealand’s first foray into space is a methane-emission satellite mission. New Zealand’s membership in Five Eyes (an intelligence-sharing group that also includes the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada) means that the United States may be able to work with this ally in space security missions in the future.

Luxembourg

In the twenty-first century, Luxembourg has reinvented itself again as a hub of an emerging space economy, creating a positive regulatory, legal, research, and business environment. Indeed, Luxembourg was the first country in Europe to adopt domestic legislation that regulated property rights for resources returned from space, which may serve as a precursor for similar legislation in other nations.

United Arab Emirates

In February 2021, the United Arab Emirates inserted the Hope probe into Martian orbit for an exploratory mission—an accomplishment, as the UAE’s space program is only the seventh to ever do so.

Space sustainability

Satellites are critical for security and prosperity, but they are also delicate, expensive hardware subject to damage in the harsh environment of space by small pieces of debris. Because objects in space travel so fast, a bus-sized satellite can be destroyed by an object the size of a marble and critically damaged by a fleck of paint. This vulnerability makes space debris of vital importance. Due to a range of factors—the proliferation of smaller satellites in LEO, counterspace weapons tests, and collisions in space—the amount of space debris has become extensive.

Space-surveillance networks regularly track and catalogue more than twenty-eight thousand debris objects.
There exists a tipping point where the quantity of debris is great enough that entire orbital bands become unusable. In 1978, NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler proposed a theory that debris-driven collisions can become self-perpetuating, making space access impossible. This runaway effect is known as the “Kessler Syndrome.” As the density of objects in LEO increases, so does the number of collisions, producing more debris fragments. The larger number of debris fragments subsequently increases the number of collisions, producing yet more debris in a vicious cycle.

To protect operating satellites and preserve space sustainability, space situational awareness (SSA) and space traffic management (STM) are vital missions. While these two areas have some overlap, they have notable differences, and should be addressed separately.

Space situational awareness (SSA)

SSA is “comprehensive knowledge and understanding of the space and terrestrial environment…that enables timely, relevant, decision-quality and accurate assessments, in order to successfully protect space assets.”

Space traffic management (STM)

STM is “the set of technical and regulatory provisions for promoting safe access into outer space, operations in outer space, and return from outer space to Earth.”

In sum, commerce and security activity in Earth’s orbit are an unexceptional part of the global economy and international relations. This routinization has consequences for the space environment and threatens to significantly interfere with satellite operations in the coming decades. Plenty of pressing issues remain in Earth orbit, among them the evolution of commercial and defense technology, the role of the private sector, and access to critical materials for space systems. But, beyond Earth orbit, a thirty-year strategy needs to consider the next frontier—cislunar space.

The promise of cislunar space

Human economic and security activity in the space domain is already beginning to extend beyond Earth orbit and will, within the timeframe of this strategy, encompass cislunar space. The sphere created by the Earth-Moon radius, cislunar space offers the chance to extend activities beyond GEO, with the possibility of scientific and military observation, military sensing and communication, and resource extraction. Cislunar space is particularly attractive, as it offers three elements essential to human space activity: energy, materials, and integrated intelligence. Without these three convergent streams, space-mission success is obstructed. Cislunar space provides all three of these assets simultaneously, and is positioned relatively close to the Earth. With Earth only about 1.35 light seconds from the Moon, cislunar space offers a platform wherein Earth-based communications can control missions in real time. Additionally, because the Moon sits in a shallow gravity well compared to Earth, space vehicles can more easily propel from points in cislunar space. Thus, cislunar space offers a viable point for kickstarting exploration beyond Earth orbit.

Within the vast expanse of cislunar space, there is important strategic geography that could become areas of tension, including the Earth-Moon Lagrange points.

Today, exotic orbits like these are consigned to the pages of astrophysics journals and conferences. But, in decades’ time, they could be the front-page concern of defense analysts and national security policymakers. Today, satellite placement in GEO is tightly regulated by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), a United Nations (UN) specialized agency, so that satellites in GEO do not interfere with each other. Without future regulation, specialized orbits in cislunar space may suffer from a tragedy of the commons where individual satellite operators have no incentive to deconflict with each other.

Figure 3

Image credit: NASA

While Earth orbit and cislunar space will be the critical theaters of space strategy, two cross-cutting issues will impact the development of these space domains: the employment of emerging technology in space applications and the increasing role of the private sector in space activity.

Commercial and defense technology

The strategic space environment will be shaped by emerging technology developments, which enable more sophisticated satellite networks, enhance Earth observation, and reduce costs while effectively broadening access to space. These technologies will enable a range of new commercial and military space missions and applications.

Communications satellites

Communication is a core mission of space systems, with new communications technology facilitating more sophisticated satellite constellations. Among other benefits, communications satellites in GEO are responsible for television broadcasting, meteorology, radio, and military satellite communication.

While satellites in GEO are enormously useful, space commerce is shifting to LEO. LEO has two key advantages: proximity to Earth and revisit frequency. The smallsat revolution (the continued miniaturization of satellites), decreased launch costs, and compelling new business cases have combined to make massive constellations in LEO possible that take advantage of LEO benefits.

Laser technology

Laser technology is on the cusp of enhancing satellite communications through higher data-transfer rates and enhanced security. Currently, data transmitted using radio waves carry a number of disadvantages. As radio waves propagate, the signal transmitted “grows weaker due to noise, disruption, or the sheer volume of space.” As activities move farther into space, latency issues will create unacceptable delays for some applications. Lasers, by contrast, maintain signal strength over longer distances and employ shorter wavelengths, allowing exponentially faster data transfer. While the radio spectrum is tightly controlled in space, limiting room for innovation, there is more regulatory room to experiment with communication lasers. Laser technology can advance LEO satellite connectivity as well as deep-space communications.

Imaging sensors

For years, defense and commercial satellites have employed electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR) cameras, which aim to image targets by creating a contrast between the desired target and its background. While defense and commercial satellites have employed EO/IR cameras, such systems encounter limitations in tracking objects at a distance, especially under adverse conditions. While modern EO/IR sensors are degraded by cloud cover, heavy moisture, and low light, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is always available, regardless of conditions. SAR can produce either two-dimensional (2D) or elevation maps, which are useful for defense and civilian applications. As such, SAR imagery improves orbital detection. Through 2050, SAR resolutions and applications are expected to expand and proliferate.

Reusable space launch

Reusable space launch has revolutionized the space industry by reducing cost to orbit, a longtime limiting factor for military and commercial space applications. While previously capsules or other components would only be used a single time, innovations have allowed scientists to retrieve and reuse launch components, substantially reducing cost. Reusable launch vehicles have transported commercial satellites, national security payloads, and even human astronauts in just the past year.

The space environment is characterized by increasingly capable kinetic and non-kinetic anti-satellite weapons. With the expanding value of space, these weapons will become increasingly salient as the threat of space conflict grows.

Private-sector engagement

While private firms have been making money in space for more than fifty years, the lion’s share of commercial activity in space has been about enabling activity on Earth—including transmission of radio and television signals and Earth observation. These activities remain important and have enormous potential for growth in the coming decades. Yet, there is a new wave of space commerce coming that implicates activity within space—mining, manufacturing, and tourism. This new category of space commerce has the potential to move the space domain into a commercial phase distinct from the scientific and security concerns that have previously dominated. As this transition occurs, the United States will have to interact with the private sector—already a crucial element of space strategy—in a different manner to foster discovery and innovation, while guarding against exploitation that could prove detrimental to sustainable space development.

The private sector is, and will remain, a key element in the success of US and allied space programs. Especially since NASA ended the Space Shuttle program, space programs have relied less on governments and more on private industry, as evidenced by the burgeoning US commercial space industry. A decade after the first commercial launch of a satellite to LEO in 2009, the space industry has accelerated, with more than $25.7 billion of private investment globally. Despite this importance, private-sector space entities sometimes face challenges in interacting with the US government. These obstacles include a complex regulatory and compliance environment that can be slow moving, risk averse, and process based, rather than outcome oriented.

II. Key goals for US security strategy in space

Currently, given the widespread reliance on space for a variety of civilian and military applications, space is increasingly “competitive, congested, and contested.” In the coming thirty years, the United States and likeminded nations should nurture a thriving, self-sustaining economy in space. Further, as the space domain transitions away from a phase of development primarily characterized by exploration, the United States must lead in establishing a security order that enables this space economy and pushes the envelope of human economic activity beyond GEO and into cislunar space. To do so, the United States, in concert with its allies and partners, should work to provide the common goods of sovereignty and property rights in space. Accordingly, this long-term space strategy prioritizes the following three goals: build an international rules-based order for space; deter hostile action and secure space assets and access; and foster US and global prosperity through the continued expansion of space commerce.

Promote stability, harmony, and freedoms by establishing a rules-based order for space

The rules-based order has enabled unprecedented stability, freedoms, and security on Earth, and the United States should strive to extend that order to space. Security on Earth is becoming more interlinked with activity in space, and space offers the potential for disorder as more entities operate in space. Thus, in the long term, it is imperative for spacefaring nations to construct an internationally agreed-upon order and “rules of the road” for behavior in space. The rapid advancement of space technology is outpacing existing rules of the road, especially as competitors seek to weaponize the domain and private-sector innovations reveal unimagined possibilities for space development. Competition in space will inevitably lead to conflict and, without clear guidelines for space activity, the risk-reward calculus for humanity-improving endeavors may become too great for many private entities and too costly and inefficient for governments alone. In this eroded environment, it is imperative for the United States to lead a comprehensive campaign toward establishing and cementing a rules-based international order in space.

Deter hostile action and secure space assets and access

Cooperation under a rules-based system is paramount to success in space, but it is not possible without the leadership of likeminded nations willing to commit to a collective security architecture and develop the technologies to protect space assets. In this domain, the United States is well positioned to continue fostering “Peace through Strength” if it coordinates effectively with allies and partners. Not all threats can be deterred, and the United States should seek to collaborate with its allies and partners in reducing the natural danger from a degrading space environment. Deterring conflict in space is essential to enabling commerce and preserving the ability to navigate in Earth’s orbit. The United States and its allies and partners must be willing to punish transgressions to any rules-based international order in space, thereby establishing a deterrence-by-retaliation paradigm that has worked well for the rules-based order on land. Threats to US security and prosperity in space do not proceed only from hostile nations. In addition, the hostile and degrading space environment can be fatal to US space assets. Space has become increasingly congested, with debris posing a major challenge to the space operations of the United States and other spacefaring nations.

Foster US and global prosperity through the continued expansion of space commerce

US and global prosperity should continue to be fostered through the expansion of space commerce, with investments in keystone space technology as a central focus. Keystone technologies are those that enhance a wide range of space missions, be it through less expensive development, longer mission life, greater flexibility, or other metrics of mission efficiency. From today’s perspective, keystone technologies include the categories of space launch, satellite-constellation operations, new power and propellant systems, orbital servicing, ISRU, and the extraction of material from the lunar or asteroid surface for fuel or water processing. Many of these technologies are dual use and can benefit from Defense Department investment. To maintain its strategic advantage in space, the United States should promote stability for supply chains essential to the space industrial base. Where appropriate, the US government and industry partners will need to assure access to key materials; one such example is rare-Earth elements.

III. Major elements of the strategy

Earth orbit is on the edge of a transition from being primarily the remit of exploration and security to being the locus of a thriving economy. In the next thirty years, human economic and security activity is likely to push this envelope further, embracing cislunar space. This transition must be built upon a solid regulatory, security, technological framework, and human capital base.

In order to achieve a rules-based order in space, preserve the US and allied space security advantage, and advance technology for space development, the United States—in coordination with its allies and partners—should prioritize new space law, a new space security alliance, advanced space technology, and a cislunar approach to space as the major elements of US national strategy for space over the next thirty years.

Major spacefaring entities are increasingly disregarding the existing space treaties or interpreting them in increasingly expansive ways to justify their activities in space. In the long term (2040-2050), the United States should seek to develop a new, foundational space treaty. Because international agreements of this sort can take years, if not decades, to negotiate, in the short term (2021-2025), the United States should seek to develop customary international law that matches US and allied norms for space and to forge consensus among likeminded nations about the need to develop a new treaty on the international law of space.

The United States and its allies must create a framework for cooperation and mutual security in space by forming an international space security alliance and extending the reach of existing alliances like NATO—appropriate for the twenty-first century and beyond—to ensure collective security and deter aggression in space. As described earlier in the paper, over the next thirty years great-power competition is likely to impact activity in space, and space may well be used by the United States’ strategic competitors to achieve broader security goals on Earth. As space activity increases, Earth-based activities enabled by space will multiply over time, and space-based activities will have greater potential impact on security on Earth itself. As a result, the securitization of space will become an increasingly important focus, and the establishment and maintenance of collective security among likeminded nations will be important in the long term (2040-2050). To reach this, in the short (2021-2025) and medium terms (2025-2040), the United States should focus on arriving at common understandings of space security with allies and partners and on engaging in coordinated activities in space.

To facilitate the transition to an orbital economy in the long term (2040-2050) and maximize space-based services to Earth in the short term (2021-2025), the US government should invest in space launch, satellite-constellation operations, upgraded space power and propellants, on-orbit services, and ISRU; prepare for rocket transportation; develop innovative ways of harnessing the private sector; and secure supply chains critical to the manufacture of space components. It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict which technologies will be critical in thirty years’ time. To account for the nonlinear nature of technological development, this strategy recommends investing in some specific technologies to push the envelope of space development in the short term and engaging in reforms to government practices that will encourage the development of space technology throughout the thirty-year timeframe of this strategy.

Figure 4

To achieve long-term security and prosperity in space, the United States should emphasize the development of cislunar space, the sphere formed by the Earth-Moon radius.

While the Lagrange points offer one attractive orbit in cislunar space that is obvious to strategists in 2020, there is a potential for other orbital “real estate” in cislunar space to become contested over the next thirty years. Furthermore, similarly advantageous zones of the solar system may be reached, and their potential realized, in the coming decades. For example, the moons of planets like Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, and other bodies in space, such as the planetoid Ceres and asteroids, provide fertile ground for mining operations. Securing cislunar space will provide a critical trial in protecting these valuable zones for sustainable space exploration. By working to wisely and proactively manage the Lagrange points, the United States can set the international standard for constructive resolution of future debates in cislunar space and beyond.

IV. Guidelines for implementation

In pursuit of the goals of this strategy, US policymakers should coordinate with allies and partners to execute the major elements of this strategy using the following guidelines for implementation. Policymakers must weigh these recommendations with potential drawbacks and alternatives.

1. Space law and policy

To facilitate space commerce and the sustainability of such activity by guaranteeing sovereignty and property rights in space, the United States must work to implement new treaties, laws, frameworks, and organizations governing space from the international to the subnational levels.

2. Space security alliance

To demonstrate the US commitment to space-related security, the president of the United States should direct the US Space Council to create a plan to develop a space security alliance. The alliance’s purpose will be to preserve the collective interests of spacefaring nations and enhance security in space.

3. Cislunar space

NASA should evaluate whether its ambitious timeline and plans to explore the Moon are realistic. The United States should set out a plan to construct infrastructure at some of the Lagrange points by 2050.

4. Rocket transportation

In the medium term (2025-2040), the United States should pursue rocket transportation for military and commercial purposes.

5. Emerging space defense technologies

The United States should develop and deploy electromagnetic countermeasures to its most valuable satellites and downlink stations.

6. Public-private partnerships

Innovation is critical to almost every aspect of the human race. To maintain the high ground in space, current and future US administrations must meet recommended science, technology, and basic research levels. Future opportunities to incentivize, bolster, and minimize unnecessary restrictions when partnering with the commercial sector should be exploited.

7. Space critical infrastructure and cybersecurity

Under the Biden administration, the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) should be directed to evaluate whether space should be declared the seventeenth critical infrastructure sector.

8. Space propulsion and ISRU

In the new administration, NASA should work with the national laboratories to ensure there is a steady supply of satellite-grade nuclear material. As a short-term goal, the United States and its industry partners should invest in technology that will enable in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) activity in support of space security.

9. Space situational awareness and space traffic-management

While the United States should lead a global effort to minimize debris creation (or remove already-present debris), spacefaring nations will still need to operate in space despite the presence of debris. To do so, improvements in SSA and STM are critical.

Photos: NASA

Strategy timeline

To be effectively executed, this strategy for space security suggests several specific policy initiatives that can be considered and pursued within the next thirty years. The below list summarizes the policy recommendations and proposed timelines.

V. Conclusion

I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower

For centuries, humankind has gazed up at the cosmos pondering life, yet humans only reached this final frontier mere decades ago. Since human arrival in space, the realm of possibility has drastically expanded to incorporate new spacefaring nations and companies, new inventions, and new orbits. One can only imagine the infinite value and potential that space will offer in the decades ahead. As we grapple with existential challenges on Earth, we may continue to look to space to derive potential answers. While a thirty-year US strategy cannot begin to imagine the unimaginable, a long-term vision is critical to advance the position of spacefaring nations and shape the future trajectory of this critical high ground.

Over the next thirty years, space security will continue to evolve as legal frameworks and alliances are developed, technologies advance, and investments in public-private partnerships are made. In order for the United States to protect a promising future of space prosperity, it must work with likeminded nations to: enhance a rules-based international order for space, preserve US and allied leadership in space, strengthen US and allied technological advantages in space, and push space development to cislunar space. In the absence of concerted action, humankind risks diminishing the immense value still being discovered in Earth orbit and beyond.

There are significant first-mover advantages that accrue to the leader of this new “space rush.” The United States can set the new do-no-harm standards for conduct in space like resource extraction and access to the Lagrange points. While the United States must be sober in its assessment of the importance of space in great-power competition, it should seek peaceful exploration and cooperation with all spacefaring countries—including China and Russia—where possible. In the interest of global security on Earth and within space, the United States must work with its allies and partners to normalize rules of conduct and engagement and deter against aggression in the space domain. In the timeframe of this strategy, commerce in Earth orbit will become routine, normal, and unremarkable, constituting an increasingly large share of global economic activity. Still, this development faces serious threats. Through new space governance, a new space security alliance, and new space technology, the United States can realize that vision while pushing humanity’s economic frontier into cislunar space.

The United States is not just a nation that uses space; it is a spacefaring nation. Space exploration, value, and security are tightly woven into the collective US psyche, not to mention the US scientific, commercial, and military establishments. Russian rocketeer Konstantin Tsiolkovsky famously stated that “the Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot eternally live in a cradle.” It is time for the United States to fully enmesh Earth orbit in legal, security, and commercial apparatuses so that space exploration agencies can focus on cislunar space, Mars, and the boundless universe beyond.

In essence, this strategy is laid out with the understanding that “plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” Determining what will and will not be the reality in 2050 is a futile exercise, as benchmarks laid for the next decade may be eclipsed by great and unknown achievements in the coming years. However, paving a roadmap to 2050 is helpful in shaping the goals, policies, and investments necessary to pursue enduring prosperity and security in space tomorrow. Keeping the future at the forefront, regardless of developments that may materialize and on what timeline, situates humankind to reap the benefits of space activity in perpetuity.

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Icon Acknowledgments¹“Space Holds Boundless Potential for Humankind”: Icon made by Pixelmeetup from www.flaticon.com; “Space is on the Cusp of a Major Transition”: Icon made by Good Ware from www.flaticon.com; “Security in Space is at Risk, and the United States Must Act Urgently”: Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com; “New Frontiers of Exploration Require Shaping”: Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com; “Update and Refine the Legal and Regulatory Framework Governing Space”: Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com; “Establish a Space Security Alliance”: Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com; “Accelerate Space Commerce through Clear Regulation and Targeted Investment”: Icon made by dDara from www.flaticon.com; “Take a Cislunar Approach to Space”: Icon by Icongeek26 from www.flaticon.com.

Related Experts: Clementine G. Starling, Mark J. Massa, Christopher P. Mulder, Julia Siegel, Barry Pavel, Matthew Kroenig, Christian Trotti, Emma Ashford, Franklin D. Kramer, and Paul Saffo

Image: Cover credit: Helen Lundeberg, “The Veil,” 1947, The Macfarlane Collection