Institute of Modern Russia quotes Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center Resident Senior Fellow Anders Åslund on whether Russia is planning a summer offensive in Ukraine:
Ukraine is perhaps most vulnerable to Russian aggression in the areas of economy and finance. Kiev faces an economic crisis that is at least partially Russia’s making: it has imposed trade sanctions on Ukraine, even while denying that they are political, and helped wage the destructive conflict in the country’s east. According to economist Anders Aslund, Ukraine has lost 16 percent of its GDP because of the conflict with Russia. He estimates that 7 percent of that loss is due to trade sanctions imposed in 2013, 3 percent from the loss in direct foreign investment because of the war, and 6 percent due to decreased output in the Donbass. Russia has distanced itself from the trade sanctions by placing responsibility on “customs authorities” and saying that it was not a decision made at the “level of government.”