What is strategic foresight?

Foresight is a tool for peering into the future. Pioneered decades ago by public and private sector organizations alike, foresight is a practice area which maps, assesses and forecasts future trends and their interaction. It is an iterative game, which thrives on diversity of input and perspectives, and an essential first step in developing strategies to deal with alternative futures. In a world that is always changing, we believe foresight should become a global mindset.

For a decade, the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative (FSR) has been a global leader in the strategic foresight space. Under the direction of Dr. Mathew Burrows, who formerly led the National Intelligence Council’s quadrennial Global Trends studies, FSR has identified the world’s key trends and uncertainties and charted pathways to a more prosperous, stable, and peaceful future. FSR is considered a gold standard foresight practice within the United States and around the world.

The issues

FSR Webpage Global Trends

The new decade is in rapid flux and is characterized by geopolitical turbulence, economic complexity, technological disruption, demographic shifts and social interconnectedness. In this changing environment, we focus on identifying the key trends and risks which will fundamentally shape the future of humanity and global affairs. Our work encompasses a wide range of issues, from demography and urbanization to migration, power transitions and global governance, but is always driven by the principle that foresight is a key mindset for decision-making.

FSR Webpage Tech

Technology and innovation

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is already underway. Technological development will fundamentally alter the global geopolitical landscape by changing governance structures, challenging human ingenuity and demanding innovative policy responses. Our team analyzes the political, socioeconomic, ecological, and security implications of emerging technologies, maps the evolution of innovation ecosystems and distills blueprints for entrepreneurship, in the Unites States and globally.

FSR Webpage Geopolitics

Geopolitics

The global power shift towards Asia, the United States’ relative decline and the emergence of transnational threats such as climate change are pulling at the threads of the post-World War II international system. Our team’s research discerns the outline of the dawning multipolar order by exploring power transitions, geopolitical shifts, and civil society movements. At the same time, we seek to challenge the assumptions which have been underpinning US foreign policy for the last 70 years and adapt them for current times.

FSR Webpage Nontrad Security

Non-traditional security challenges

In the 21st century, the definition of security and its global architecture are changing under the pressure of transnational, non-traditional threats such as migration, climate change and inequality, in an unresponsive global governance system. FSR is reframing security policy paradigms by bringing into the fold cutting-edge issues such as environmental security, peacebuilding, resilience and illicit trade, and providing policy solutions for the international community, states and citizens.

The Initiative leverages in-house expertise and cutting-edge tools such as data analytics, modeling, and simulations to provide pioneering research and analysis about the most important challenges of today and tomorrow.

What world post-COVID-19? interview series

This interview series features insights from FSR’s nonresident senior fellows, a set of experts drawn from across a wide range of fields, discussing the potential impacts of COVID-19.

us navy military what world post-covid 19 kim roberts

Blog Post

Jul 20, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Kim Roberts

By Anca Agachi, Peter Engelke

Dr. Kim Roberts, security studies expert, discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed thinking around national security and the US role in the world, and outlines the uncertainties ahead.

China Coronavirus

Blog Post

Jul 23, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Mr. Greg Lindsay

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Greg Lindsay, director of applied research at NewCities, outlines the implications of the pandemic for the future of cities and shares suggestions for how communities could emerge from this crisis stronger than before.

Civil Society Climate Change & Climate Action

Blog Post

Jul 29, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Joe Mascaro

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Dr. Joe Mascaro, director of education and research at Planet, discusses the effects of the pandemic on the environment, and its implications for energy transitions and earth sciences research.

Climate Change & Climate Action Coronavirus

Blog Post

Aug 20, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Dr. Conrad Tucker

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Dr. Conrad Tucker, professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, explains how the pandemic is changing the conversations around higher education and emerging technologies.

Coronavirus Education

Blog Post

Sep 3, 2020

What world post COVID-19?: A conversation with Mr. John Raidt

By Peter Engelke, Anca Agachi

Mr. John Raidt, security and public policy expert and practitioner, discusses political dysfunction in the US and the need for democratic renewal in light of the pandemic.

China Civil Society

Leadership

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Sign up for the Foresight, Strategy and Risks newsletter to remain up to date with our events, publications, and much more! Learn about global risks, technology, emerging security issues, and geopolitics, and discover how current events fit into long-term trends.

Content

In the News

Aug 4, 2022

Engelke and Miller in NBC News

By Peter Engelke, Danielle Miller

On August 3, Peter Engelke, Deputy Director of Foresight, Scowcroft Strategy Initiative, and Scowcroft Center program assistant Danielle Miller wrote an op-ed for NBC News on the need to reduce US waste exports and work toward a circular economy.

China Climate Change & Climate Action

Report

Mar 7, 2022

Quel avenir pour le Sahel?

By Richard Cincotta and Stephen Smith

Le Sahel est dans une impasse démographique. S’ils veulent sortir de l’impasse actuelle, les gouvernements sahéliens devront réorienter une partie importante de leurs efforts de développement et moyens financiers vers des politiques et programmes visant à améliorer la condition féminine : en prévenant les mariages et grossesses précoces chez les adolescentes, en promouvant l’éducation des filles et en garantissant la pleine participation des femmes dans tous les secteurs publics et privés, à commencer par les lieux de travail.

Africa Energy & Environment

Report

Nov 4, 2021

What future for the Western Sahel?

By Richard Cincotta and Stephen Smith

The Western Sahel is in a demographic impasse. To work their way out of this dilemma, Sahelian governments must shift a significant part of their development focus and funding to policies and programs aimed at preventing adolescent marriages and childbearing, promoting girls’ education, securing women’s participation in public- and private-sector workplaces, and achieving small, healthy, well-educated families.

Africa Energy & Environment

New Atlanticist

Aug 31, 2021

To build lasting peace, you can’t ignore militant groups

By Imran Bayoumi

Efforts to stabilize conflict-ridden countries sometimes fail in large part because of their inability to constructively engage armed non-state groups.

Afghanistan Africa

In the News

Jun 27, 2021

Burrows in Lawfare: How the United States can compete with Chinese influence in Southeast Asia

By Atlantic Council

China English

In the News

Jun 22, 2021

Manning and Eftimiades in SpyTalk on false rumors of a high-level Chinese defector

By Atlantic Council

Senior Fellow Robert Manning and Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Nicholas Eftimiades interviewed by SpyTalk in an article titled "Feds: we don’t have Chinese defector Dong Jingwei."

China Intelligence

In the News

Jun 16, 2021

Burrows mentioned in the Politico Playbook

By Atlantic Council

On June 16, Dr. Mathew Burrows’s new report co-authored with Denver University’s Pardee Center on US and Chinese influence was mentioned in the Politico Playbook.

China English

Report

Jun 16, 2021

IN BRIEF: Fifteen takeaways from our new report measuring US and Chinese global influence

By Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, and Mathew J. Burrows

The Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index tracks and quantifies the intensifying competition between China and the United States, measuring influence between pairs of states over the last six decades through the volume of their interactions and the dependence that countries have on one another.

China Politics & Diplomacy

In the News

Jun 4, 2021

LeVine in Medium’s The Mobilist: Everyone will want to charge their vehicles fast, these entrepreneurs bet

By Atlantic Council

Americas Energy & Environment

In the News

May 31, 2021

Burrows quoted in the Financial Times: How Biden came around to the Wuhan lab-leak theory

By Atlantic Council

On May 31, Dr. Mathew Burrows was quoted in a Financial Times article about Biden’s decision to direct intelligence services to investigate the origins of COVID.

China Coronavirus