Global Foresight 2023

The authoritative forecast for the year ahead—and beyond

Welcome to the second edition of Global Foresight from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, home for the last decade to one of the world’s premier strategic foresight shops.

In this year’s installment, which is part of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series, our senior experts identify the top twenty-three risks and opportunities awaiting the world in 2023, assessing the likelihood that each will occur. Our next-generation foresight team spots six “snow leopards”—under-the-radar phenomena that could have major unexpected impacts, for better or worse, in 2023 and beyond. And we share exclusive findings from our survey of leading strategists and foresight practitioners around the world on how human affairs could unfold over the next ten years across geopolitics, the global economy, climate change, technological disruption, and more.

Welcome to 2033

What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 160 experts

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight gurus on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the prospect of nuclear proliferation to the probability of great-power war to the potential for more global volatility.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2023

The underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world

Because it receives relatively little attention in the press, the snow leopard does not appear significant enough to warrant much scrutiny as a driver of change and shaper of the future. Yet just like the real cat in the wild, the figurative snow leopard is something that could sneak up and vividly remind us of its power.

The top 23 risks and opportunities for 2023

What threats and possibilities will the coming year bring?

The war in Ukraine changed the world in 2022. How will it continue reshaping global affairs in 2023 and what else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

What is Global Foresight 2023?

Full survey results

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Jan 9, 2023

The Global Foresight 2023 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2022, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Strategy Paper Editorial board

Executive editors

Frederick Kempe
Alexander V. Mirtchev

Editor-in-chief

Matthew Kroenig

Editorial board members

James L. Jones
Odeh Aburdene
Paula Dobriansky
Stephen J. Hadley
Jane Holl Lute
Ginny Mulberger
Stephanie Murphy
Dan Poneman
Arnold Punaro

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Dec 21, 2021

Welcome to 2030: Three visions of what the world could look like in ten years

By Anca Agachi, Mathew Burrows

Well into the 2020s, COVID-19 will cast a long shadow over communities, workplaces, markets, battlefields, and negotiating rooms. But even as the centrifugal forces driving the world away from multilateralism and toward multipolarity accelerate, the future is not fixed. We humans have agency in shaping it.

Climate Change & Climate Action Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Dec 21, 2021

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2022

By Peter Engelke

Because it receives little attention in the press, the snow leopard does not appear significant enough to warrant much scrutiny as a driver of change and shaper of the future. Yet just like the real cat in the wild, the figurative snow leopard is something that could sneak up and vividly remind us that it exists.

Climate Change & Climate Action Coronavirus

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Dec 21, 2021

The top twelve risks and opportunities for 2022

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

With ongoing vaccination challenges in much of the world and the worrying emergence of the Omicron variant, along with supply bottlenecks plus rising inflation and debt, the pandemic continues to exert its relentless push and pull on a beleaguered world.

Climate Change & Climate Action Conflict