Global Foresight 2022

The authoritative forecast for the year ahead—and beyond

Welcome to the inaugural edition of a new annual report from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, home for the last decade to one of the world’s premier strategic foresight shops.

In this year’s installment, which is part of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series, Mathew Burrows and Anca Agachi identify ten trends that are transforming the world and guide you through three divergent visions for what world those trends could produce by 2030. Burrows and Robert A. Manning pick the top twelve risks and opportunities awaiting the world in the coming year, assessing the likelihood that each will occur. And Peter Engelke spots six “snow leopards”—under-the-radar phenomena that could have major unexpected impacts, for better or worse, in 2022 and beyond.

Welcome to 2030

Three visions of what the world could look like in ten years

Well into the 2020s, COVID-19 will cast a long shadow. But even as the centrifugal forces driving the world away from multilateralism and toward multipolarity accelerate, the future is not fixed. We humans have agency in shaping it.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2022

The underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world

Because it receives little attention in the press, the snow leopard does not appear significant enough to warrant much scrutiny as a driver of change and shaper of the future. Yet just like the real cat in the wild, the figurative snow leopard is something that could sneak up and vividly remind us that it exists.

The top twelve risks and opportunities for 2022

What threats and possibilities will the coming year bring?

With ongoing vaccination challenges in much of the world and the worrying emergence of the Omicron variant, along with supply bottlenecks plus rising inflation and debt, the pandemic continues to exert its relentless push and pull on a beleaguered world.

Download the report

Meet your expert guides to the future

What is Global Foresight 2022?

Strategy Paper Editorial board

Executive editors

Frederick Kempe
Alexander V. Mirtchev

Editor-in-chief

Matthew Kroenig

Editorial board members

James L. Jones
Odeh Aburdene
Paula Dobriansky
Stephen J. Hadley
Jane Holl Lute
Ginny Mulberger
Stephanie Murphy
Dan Poneman
Arnold Punaro

Issue briefs and reports Jul 7, 2020

What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios

By Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke

A preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the pandemic and possible directions for the global system after the still-unfolding crisis.

Coronavirus G20

Report Jun 16, 2021

IN BRIEF: Fifteen takeaways from our new report measuring US and Chinese global influence

By Jonathan D. Moyer, Collin J. Meisel, Austin S. Matthews, David K. Bohl, and Mathew J. Burrows

The Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity Index tracks and quantifies the intensifying competition between China and the United States, measuring influence between pairs of states over the last six decades through the volume of their interactions and the dependence that countries have on one another.

China Politics & Diplomacy

Article Apr 16, 2021

Pavel and Burrows in CNN: There will be no graceful exit from the Covid-19 pandemic

By Barry Pavel, Mathew Burrows

“The US is the only country with the capacity and influence to lead the world in eradicating this historic pandemic.”

Coronavirus English