STOCKHOLM—A prominent feature of the new US National Security Strategy (NSS) is the United States’ voluntary retreat from its role as the world’s dominant superpower. Indeed, the strategy rests on a peculiar buy-in of Russia’s and China’s visions of a multipolar world. This is in part why it was welcomed by Russia, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling it “largely consistent” with Moscow’s view of the world.
The new NSS stands in sharp contrast to the previous one released in 2022, which laid out the ambition of preserving US world dominance and pushing back contenders by working with allies and partners. The new NSS takes a clear stance against the notion of the United States as the leader of a unipolar world order that was created after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The NSS argues that after the Cold War, US elites pursued “permanent American domination of the entire world,” an approach it explicitly rejects. Instead, it declares of the United States that “the affairs of other countries are our concern only if their activities directly threaten our interests.” This reorientation has far-reaching consequences for US security policy. While some of the implications are acknowledged in the strategy, others are overlooked. The United States’ closest allies in Europe are likely to feel the effects most acutely, as the NSS emphasizes that “the days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over” and calls for Europe to assume “primary responsibility for its own defense.”
One can argue that the United States’ new self-styled position as one great power among others is not a voluntary retreat but an acceptance of an inevitable reality. By adapting now, the argument goes, the United States will be better positioned to face challenges ahead. However, that is not how world systems work—they are not shaped preemptively by the choices a single country makes. Rather, the international system emerges from the long-term trajectories of states’ relative power.
The NSS seems to take the remarkable step of dividing the world into spheres of interest, a formulation that is reminiscent of the multipolar world of the nineteenth century. In this view of the world order, great powers have a right to a sphere of influence over smaller states, usually in their vicinity. For the United States, as the NSS asserts, this means a return to the Monroe Doctrine with the goal of regaining US preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.
With the United States adopting a spheres-of-influence approach to the global order, Europe needs to rise to the occasion.
In Asia, the United States is seeking strong relations with China based on strength, not force. In a speech on December 6, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth outlined the Trump administration’s approach to Asia, which he said was based on “flexible realism” and “aimed not at domination, but rather a balance of power.”
The consequences for Europe in a world once again divided into spheres of influence would be severe. It would mean an end to the transatlantic community, which is based on the indivisible link between the security of Europe and that of the United States.
Since the second Trump administration came to office, the United States has repeatedly sent shock waves across Europe. By now, the alarm bells have gone off so many times that the noise has become constant. Europe is now being pushed from both the east and the west.
To the east, Europe neighbors Russia, a revisionist state that wants to expand its political power and territory at Europe’s expense. The primary aim of Russia’s decade-long campaign of hybrid warfare against Europe is to prepare the ground for a fragmented continent that is weak enough to accept an extended Russian sphere of influence. Between its recent proposed Ukraine peace plans and the NSS, the United States has suggested restoring strategic stability, blocking Ukraine and other countries from joining NATO, and deepening economic cooperation with Russia. But this approach will not satisfy Russia—it will only whet its appetite. What the NSS fails to account for is that revisionist states are not satisfied with the status quo.
To its west, Europe is military aligned with a United States that is signaling that it is preparing to hand over responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent to the Europeans, while only maintaining the nuclear umbrella. According to some sources, Europe will need to take on this responsibility as soon as 2027. If Europe is to navigate as a pole of its own in a brave new multipolar world, it will be through the European Union (EU). Only the EU—not Germany or France alone—is big enough to exert the influence needed for a global power posture.
The NSS does not treat Europe like a respected partner. It severely criticizes Europe’s performance on the economy, defense, and democracy, all while threatening the continent with abandonment. At the same time, the strategy underscores the fact that the United States cannot manage the world without Europe. The strategy calls for “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations,” which would mean interfering in European countries’ domestic affairs to weaken the EU. If carried out, such an initiative would undermine US ambitions to work with Brussels to make economic gains in Asia and the Global South, which the strategy also proposes. The United States would be better off refraining from interfering in Europe’s domestic affairs and cooperating with the EU on economic issues of mutual interest.
However, as the EU was not designed as a military alliance, it will need to accelerate the ongoing buildup of its defense capabilities to function as a global player. As long as NATO exists, the core of European defense efforts must be anchored in the Alliance. The United States can be helpful in this regard by supporting the European defense industrial base and an orderly shift of capabilities and responsibilities within NATO.
With the United States adopting a spheres-of-influence approach to the global order, Europe needs to rise to the occasion. If Europe is to fend off an aggressive Russia, it will need to urgently invest in innovation, military capabilities and readiness, energy security, and societal resilience. The continent probably didn’t need another wake-up call, but it has arrived.
