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Thu, Mar 26, 2020

Dual demand and supply shocks have created historic oil crisis, IEA executive director says

Dramatically lower oil demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and an emerging supply glut caused by the failure of major oil producers to cut production has slammed the global oil market with a crisis “unique in history,” according to Dr. Fatih Birol.

New Atlanticist by David A. Wemer

Climate Change & Climate Action Energy Markets & Governance

Thu, Mar 12, 2020

Oil market meltdown?

Over the weekend of March 7–8, the breakdown of the previous oil production agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia led to the broader collapse of the arrangement between OPEC and OPEC+. What will the rift will mean for the global oil market?

EnergySource by John Soughan

Coronavirus Energy Markets & Governance

Wed, Mar 11, 2020

Atlantic Council press call: Oil market meltdown: Price wars, coronavirus, and energy geopolitics

Last week’s breakdown of OPEC+ meetings in Vienna has turned a demand side driven decline in oil prices caused by the impacts of Coronavirus into an oil price war between two oil producing giants, with US shale production the ostensible target. If the standoff continues, however, the price war might ultimately do more harm to the Saudi and Russian economies. With increasing uncertainty about the depth of Coronavirus’ impact on global growth, the price war might also contribute to a sharp decline in the global economy. Helima Croft, David L. Goldwyn, Jean-Francois Seznec, Anders Aslund, and Randolph Bell discuss ongoing market volatility, the origins of the crisis, what’s next for US shale, and the implications of it all for energy and geopolitics

Event Recap

Coronavirus Energy & Environment

Mon, Mar 9, 2020

Saudi Arabia and Russia feud over coronavirus oil response: Will everyone lose?

"While Russia’s decision last week not to support OPEC’s proposal for a production cut and the subsequent oil price war—which as of publishing has pushed Brent crude down more than 9 percent—is surely part of the larger story of the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak, it is actually better understood as a geopolitical story about how US energy production growth has strengthened the United States’ international posture, which in turn has reshaped a number of global relationships," Randolph Bell says.

New Atlanticist by David A. Wemer

Coronavirus Energy Markets & Governance

Thu, Feb 20, 2020

To deter Iran, the Gulf states need stronger navies

The Gulf states should follow Washington’s lead in restoring deterrence in the face of the desperate regime in Tehran.

MENASource by Daniel J. Samet

Iran Middle East

Mon, Jan 27, 2020

Why mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran keeps failing

Mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran means changing the balance of power in a way that pleases both countries.

IranSource by Banafsheh Keynoush

Iran Middle East

Fri, Jan 24, 2020

China’s Persian Gulf strategy: Keep Tehran and Riyadh content

The current tensions between Washington and Tehran have been a major stress test for China’s Persian Gulf strategy.

MENASource by Julia Gurol and Jacopo Scita

China Iran

Tue, Jan 14, 2020

Bell quoted in Petroleum Economist on Aramco IPO

In the News by Atlantic Council

Middle East Oil and Gas

Sat, Jan 11, 2020

Livingston joins Emirates News Agency to discuss energy transitions in UAE

In the News by Atlantic Council

Energy & Environment Energy Transitions
Manufacturing facility

Thu, Jan 9, 2020

The Saudi Aramco-SABIC merger: How acquiring SABIC fits into Aramco’s long-term diversification strategy

Throughout 2019, financial markets have watched the planned Saudi Aramco initial public offering (IPO), which was finally launched in December. A quieter, but no less significant, story was Saudi Aramco’s acquisition of SABIC. Saudi Aramco strove to have a successful IPO, especially through increased transparency and diversification, and the SABIC acquisition was a key element of Saudi Aramco’s diversification strategy. Going forward, what does the merger mean for both companies, what is the new relationship between Aramco and SABIC, and what are the merger’s implications for the intricate relationship between the various bureaucracies and leadership in Saudi Arabia?

Issue Brief by Jean-François Seznec

Energy Markets & Governance Energy Transitions