Content

Dispatches

Feb 11, 2026

I was wrong about fighting China in 2025. But the US still isn’t ready for that fight.

By Mike Minihan

A retired US general reflects on his earlier and controversial prediction that the United States and China were headed for conflict.

China
Conflict

Podcast

Feb 11, 2026

Narco noir: Drugs, gangs and mercenaries in Latin America

By Alia Brahimi

In Season 2, Episode 14 of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, a renowned expert on non-state armed groups and organised crime. They begin by discussing the escalation of gang violence in Haiti over the last year, despite the arrival of the American PMC, Vectus Global, which is led by the Blackwater founder Erik Prince. Vanda points out that a recent air campaign weaponizing off-the-shelf drones was intended to decapitate the gangs but, while hundreds of Haitians have been killed, none of them have been significant gang leaders. They go on to explore why governments in the region allow and coopt street militias, the bunkering of fuel by colectivos in Venezuela, Hizballah’s continuing narcotics operations across Latin America, the IRGC’s role in drug trafficking, and how the regime in Iran ends.

Americas
Caribbean

In the News

Feb 9, 2026

Kroenig on School of War podcast on nuclear weapons

By Atlantic Council

On February 9, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was interviewed on the School of War podcast about China's nuclear arsenal and impacts on US national security.

China
United States and Canada

Dispatches

Feb 9, 2026

How 2025’s US tariff shocks can give way to constructive reforms in 2026

By L. Daniel Mullaney

While last year’s US tariff policy was disruptive, it also gave US trade partners a sense of urgency about the need to reform the international trading system and respond to legitimate US concerns.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

In the News

Feb 9, 2026

Kroenig on BBC on US escalating pressure against Cuba

By Atlantic Council

On February 8, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was interviewed on BBC about the US escalating pressure against the Cuban regime.

Cuba
Politics & Diplomacy

Issue Brief

Feb 9, 2026

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.

Economy & Business
Energy & Environment

Dispatches

Feb 5, 2026

How the Trump-Petro meeting could reshape Colombia’s electoral landscape

By Isabella Palacios

Petro’s turn toward engagement with Trump could have a significant impact on Colombia’s upcoming elections and the next president’s relations with Washington.

Colombia
Latin America

Dispatches

Feb 5, 2026

When economic warfare meets gunboat diplomacy: What to know about the US seizures of shadow fleet tankers

By Stephanie Connor

The Trump administration’s seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raises several crucial legal and logistical questions.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

Report

Feb 4, 2026

Local and community-driven solutions for development in fragile states

By Elton Skendaj, Peter Mandaville, and Ibrahima Bokoum

This collaborative paper examines community-driven approaches to development from three unique perspectives and highlights the importance of putting local agency at the center of international development work.

Africa
Caribbean

Econographics

Feb 4, 2026

Understanding the vibe shift on the dollar

By Daniel McDowell, Bart Piasecki, Jessie Yin

Gold prices surged to record highs last week, driven by trade tensions, tariffs, and dollar uncertainty. For some, the rally signals rising skepticism about the greenback’s stability—even as policymakers insist the US remains committed to a strong dollar.

Dollar Dominance
Economy & Business

Experts

Events