Iraq

Americans have been killed once again during attacks on Iraqi bases, and a series of strikes have been made by US forces and Iranian proxies within Iraq, with no immediate sign that the hostilities will abate anytime soon. Iran is trying to force a US withdrawal, and the United States is trying to protect its interests and reinforce its red lines. Caught in the middle once again, Iraq is simultaneously confronting a security crisis, a health emergency, and an economic free fall—all without the benefit of a functioning government in Baghdad.

Al-Zurfi’s success will depend on the Kurds and the Sunnis, whose opposition destroyed the chances of the previous nominee. For the Kurdish and the Sunni blocs, it is not a matter of whether Al-Zurfi is able to meet the governance challenges, but rather a question of if he will undertake enough political bargaining and ethno-sectarian apportionment of political positions that come with perks. Al-Zurfi will have to calculate how much he can give them to keep a semblance of legitimacy for his government.

“The attack on Camp Taji is another sign that Iraq is returning slowly to the pre-2011 insurgency,” Abbas Kadhim says. “The Iraqi government is unfortunately incapable of controlling the various armed groups that have the ability to strike anywhere they want inside the country.”