Fri, Aug 9, 2019
Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax
n July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.
EconoGraphics by BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA
Tue, Jul 23, 2019
My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition
On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.
EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA
Fri, Dec 21, 2018
Economic Outlook for 2019
December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.
Blogs by Global Business & Economics Program
Wed, Dec 5, 2018
Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce
At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Wed, Aug 28, 2019
US-EU Auto Tariffs: What’s at Stake?
Escalating trade tensions between the world’s major economies are widely considered the greatest threat to the global economy’s health. Following the White House’s cancellation of its threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports on June 7, attention swiftly turned back to the brewing US-China trade war. This edition of the EconoGraphic, however, puts the focus on how US tariffs on cars and car parts might disrupt transatlantic trade flow.
EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA
Tue, Oct 30, 2018
SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran
With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Tue, Oct 9, 2018
JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?
The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Mon, Jun 3, 2019
US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?
On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
EconoGraphics by BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN
Mon, Sep 17, 2018
Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?
With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.
EconoGraphics by Christina Gay and Ole Moehr
Mon, Apr 29, 2019
Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny
On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee
Experts
Bart Oosterveld
Director, Global Business & Economics Program
Content
Fri, Aug 9, 2019
Breaking Down France’s Digital Tax
n July, France’s parliament ratified a new law to tax big digital tech firms making it the first country to pass a tax law of this manner. Paris’ new tax scheme triggered criticism from the Trump Administration and is further complicating the transatlantic relationship. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the motivation behind taxing digital technology firms more aggressively, the way that the French tax will work, and the potential impacts and response to the tax.
EconoGraphics by BY ANDREW LASCALEIA, EDITED BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND AND ANDREW LASCALEIA
Tue, Jul 23, 2019
My Way or the Huawei: 5G at the Center of US-China Strategic Competition
On July 22, President Trump met with a group of major tech CEOs to discuss the easing of some restrictions on US companies supplying high-tech parts to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. In May, the US Commerce Department banned US companies from selling any products to Huawei. The Chinese company’s position as the world’s leading provider of 5G technology has made it a focal point of the escalating great power competition between China and the United States. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the US government’s move to blacklist Huawei, outlines the ban’s potential costs, and describes why US allies are conflicted about banning Huawei.
EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA
Fri, Dec 21, 2018
Economic Outlook for 2019
December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.
Blogs by Global Business & Economics Program
Wed, Dec 5, 2018
Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce
At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Wed, Aug 28, 2019
US-EU Auto Tariffs: What’s at Stake?
Escalating trade tensions between the world’s major economies are widely considered the greatest threat to the global economy’s health. Following the White House’s cancellation of its threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports on June 7, attention swiftly turned back to the brewing US-China trade war. This edition of the EconoGraphic, however, puts the focus on how US tariffs on cars and car parts might disrupt transatlantic trade flow.
EconoGraphics by OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY MARIANNA ASLUND, NICK BROWN, ANDREW LASCALEIA
Tue, Oct 30, 2018
SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran
With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Tue, Oct 9, 2018
JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?
The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr
Mon, Jun 3, 2019
US Cuba policy: EU and Canadian firms to suffer?
On April 17 2019, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced an important change in the United States’ policy toward Cuba: Title III of the Cuban Liberty and Democracy Solidarity Act of 1996 (LIBERTAD Act) would no longer be suspended. As a result of this decision, US claimants can now seek compensation for property confiscated by the Castro government. The move has important implications for US and foreign companies doing business in Cuba. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains the history and purpose of the LIBERTAD Act, evaluates the policy’s potential impact on US allies’ economic interests in Cuba, and highlights its implications for the pressure campaign against the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
EconoGraphics by BY OLE MOEHR | GRAPHICS BY SHIQING HUA, FRANCIS AUBEE, AND NICK BROWN
Mon, Sep 17, 2018
Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?
With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.
EconoGraphics by Christina Gay and Ole Moehr
Mon, Apr 29, 2019
Central Bank Independence Under Scrutiny
On April 26, following stronger than expected US economic growth numbers, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow, urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
EconoGraphics by Ole Moehr | Graphics by Shiqing Hua and Francis Aubee