North Africa

Competition for the Nile Basin’s freshwater has been growing markedly for three decades. In 2011, it intensified after Ethiopia started building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The so-called “Cairo Declaration,” backed by General Khalifa Haftar and Libya’s parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh, proposes an intra-Libyan resolution as a basis for resolving the country’s conflict.

It is important to monitor the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic, its effects on each North Africa system, and the debate between government elites and masses to better understand the situation in these countries and the long-term implications of the health crisis.

While Paris’s official policy in Libya has supported the United Nations-led negotiations over Libya and the Government of National Accord (GNA) that resulted from them, France’s real policy on the ground has been one of total and full support for Haftar’s forces.

Turkey’s strong support for Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj’s UN-recognized administration, however, may have at least spared the country from falling into the wrong sphere of influence. But getting to a lasting peace in Libya will require the constructive involvement of all the actors who have a stake in Libya’s future.

Two elements are certain in this complex scenario. Firstly, Cairo will not fall into the trap of being drawn into an open proxy war in Libya, since it might have serious repercussions on the security of its porous borders, especially in the south. Secondly, Haftar’s next moves will effectively define whether the relations have cooled between him and Cairo or whether Libya is facing yet another aftershock in a marriage that is more tactical than strategic.