WASHINGTON—Relief and exasperation may have been the initial reactions across European capitals as US President Donald Trump folded the cards on his Greenland gamble from Davos on Wednesday. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte excelled once again as the unrivaled Trump whisperer, helped by a combination of financial market jitters and an unexpectedly united Europe holding its ground. Rutte’s framework deal with Trump, however scarce the details, seemed to vindicate those arguing for Europe to “engage, not escalate” with the US president.
But a day after the news of the Arctic deal from the Alps, the mood among European policymakers is shifting away from mere relief. It was Trump who threatened to remember if he didn’t get his way on Greenland, but it is the Europeans who will remember this dispute even as Trump moves on. Few are celebrating the de-escalation because of how pointless and reckless they view this latest test of the Alliance’s credibility and cohesion. And because they know it’s likely only a temporary reprieve and hardly the last transatlantic crisis they can expect from this US administration. As a result, a quiet yet dogged determination is emerging to strengthen Europe’s ability to withstand US pressure in any future scenarios brought on by a US president who is seen as unpredictable, if not erratic. In a sign of the impression the last few days and weeks have left, European Union (EU) leaders still met at a special summit in Brussels on Thursday despite the immediate issue having been defused.
Trump’s speech in Davos made an impression on European decision makers. The US president appeared to be setting the terms for negotiations, forcing Europe to choose between acquiescing on his acquisition of Greenland and maintaining US support for NATO. While doing away with any potential military action, Trump outlined a nebulous rationale of US control of Greenland: No one else could supposedly defend it, and the United States needed it to protect against adversaries. He reminded Europeans of their dependencies on the United States from energy and trade to security and Ukraine. It all looked like an attempt to boost his leverage in any of these areas. But by the evening Davos time, Trump had struck a preliminary deal with Rutte.
Europeans will want to better understand the details of that agreement and what it means for Greenland, Denmark, and Europe. As long as military options and tariffs are off the table, Nuuk’s and Copenhagen’s sovereignty are respected, and the White House’s sharp rhetoric and threats subside, then NATO and EU capitals will hold back on their criticism for now. Some may even be going back to the pretense of transatlantic dialogue, cooperation, and partnership.
But beyond the diplomatic protocol and time bought, Trump’s ready willingness to engage in brinkmanship with the alliance, Europe’s economy, and personal relationships with key leaders will have a lasting impact. Trump’s approach toward Greenland has destroyed much of the domestic political space for those arguing that Europe has a weak hand and therefore few options but to engage, assuage, and accommodate Trump. That same argument, which led the EU to accept a lopsided trade deal with the United States this past summer in pursuit of “stability and predictability” in the relationship, has taken a major hit, even if few European leaders say this out loud for now.
There are clear lessons here for Europe. Over the past few days, European resolve had been building to stand tall and stay united. Markets took note of the potential costs of that cohesion, including retaliatory tariffs and a “Sell America” turn away from US assets. Europe fared better than many expected in raising the complexity for Trump in Greenland, including by swiftly deploying even just small numbers of troops to prepare joint exercises. Denmark proved resilient and built more effective rapport with Greenlanders over historically difficult relations and, together with Europe, it made important commitments to the territory and Arctic security.
Whatever time the de-escalation over this latest rift has bought Europe, it better use that reprieve effectively. It likely won’t be the last such episode under this president. Europe will have to swiftly translate the lessons from the past few weeks into building greater resilience and sovereignty, if not strategic autonomy. Efforts to strengthen defense capabilities, defense industrial capacity, and long-term support for Ukraine are well underway. But much like Europe’s initiatives at boosting its competitiveness, intensifying trade diversification, and deepening its capital markets, these efforts require greater speed, ambition, and follow-through.
Europeans will be well advised to do even more contingency planning on how to resist economic coercion, even from partners, and make unwieldy tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument more effective politically. Other areas to watch in the coming months are progress on new trade and critical raw materials deals or breakthroughs on long-standing initiatives such as the savings and investment union. Front and center for European decision makers’ thinking will be the problem described in Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech of a “rupture, not a transition” in the world order. Whether they can act on his remedies of “strength at home [and] diversifying abroad” remains to be seen.
