WASHINGTON—This year, Guatemala will undergo the most consequential institutional reset since its return to democracy in 1986. Five bodies that determine who gets prosecuted, who gets protected, who gets elected, and, ultimately, who governs the country will be renewed within a tight five-month window.
The attorney general, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the comptroller general, and the rector of the University of San Carlos (USAC) all come up for selection between February and August 2026—a timing so unusual that analysts have described it as a “planetary alignment.”
Most of the posts are selected by nominating commissions composed of delegates from universities, the Bar Association, and other sectoral representatives that send shortlists to Congress or the president. Others are chosen directly by the legislature or the executive. Although intended to promote merit-based selection, the system is highly vulnerable to manipulation: Its complex composition and the influence of already captured institutions leave commissions susceptible to intimidation, vote-buying, and procedural maneuvers.
This year’s appointments process is not a mere exercise in bureaucratic housekeeping, nor is it an ideological contest between left and right. These institutions form Guatemala’s most important line of defense against cartels and organized crime, help safeguard the rule of law, and ensure fair competition. With illicit interests already moving to influence the process, this is a battle over whether Guatemala’s institutions will serve the public and the wider region or remain instruments of criminal groups for the next decade.
This past weekend underscored just how high those stakes are. On January 18, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo declared a thirty-day “state of siege” after suspected gang members killed seven police officers in Guatemala’s capital. These killings followed sieges by authorities aiming to end riots in three prisons, in which gang-affiliated inmates had taken nearly fifty hostages. Arévalo cautioned that entrenched “political-criminal mafias” created the conditions for such violence, reinforcing the need for clean and capable institutions.
Why these institutions matter—and what has gone wrong
For decades, Guatemala has faced entrenched corruption, with criminal networks penetrating deep into the state, fueling violence and migration. Hopes for change surged with the 2023 election of Arévalo, who won over 60 percent of the vote on an anti-corruption, reformist platform.
Yet Arévalo’s ability to deliver has been severely constrained by a legislature and, most critically, a judicial system largely captured by the so-called pacto de corruptos, or corruption pact—a loose coalition of politicians, economic elites, and criminal groups. Through the control of key institutions, these actors have shielded allies from accountability and obstructed reform efforts.
1. The Attorney General’s Office (MP)
The Attorney General’s Office, or Ministerio Público (MP), is the state’s principal weapon against gangs and transnational criminal organizations. Its performance directly shapes public security and regional stability.
Under Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, the MP has faced widespread criticism for obstruction, and she has been sanctioned by the United States, European Union (EU), and United Kingdom for corruption. Over 93 percent of criminal cases go unaddressed, including those involving organized crime, while the MP has aggressively pursued judges, political opponents, and anti-corruption figures.
A captured MP means one thing: Criminal organizations operate with state protection. The 2026 appointment will determine whether Guatemala continues to enable these networks or begins dismantling them.
2. The Constitutional Court (CC)
The Constitutional Court (CC) is Guatemala’s highest judicial authority. Its role is to ensure the rule of law, protect investors, and act as a backstop against executive or congressional overreach.
In the past five years, however, it has moved in the opposite direction. The CC has issued rulings that have been denounced for protecting corrupt officials, weakening accountability and prosecutions, and undermining electoral integrity.
Co-opting the court is the ultimate prize for any criminal network: With compliant magistrates, illegal acts can be in effect legalized after the fact.
3. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) runs Guatemala’s elections and certifies results. Its independence determines whether democratic competition, rather than political mafias, decide who governs.
Despite facing immense pressure from the corruption pact, the TSE validated Arévalo’s victory in 2023. However, the body was immediately targeted by the MP and CC, which suspended magistrates, raided electoral facilities, and sought to annul the election results. Such measures raise serious concerns about institutional stability ahead of the 2027 general elections.
With many municipalities heavily influenced by criminal groups, a weakened TSE could further destabilize the country and region.
4. The Comptroller General (CGC)
The comptroller general (CGC) is Guatemala’s financial watchdog. When independent, this office is one of the country’s most effective tools for preventing corruption.
When captured, it becomes a tool for shielding allies and enabling illicit contracting schemes that directly undermine fiscal integrity and free market competition. Also, given that the law disqualifies any political candidate under investigation by the CGC, a co-opted comptroller’s office can—and has been—used to selectively target political competitors.
5. Rector of the University of San Carlos (USAC)
The head of Guatemala’s only public university wields significant influence. The rector shapes USAC’s representation in multiple nominating commissions, but the role’s reach extends far beyond academia. The university holds seats in more than fifty-three state bodies—including important financial institutions.
Under the current rector, Walter Mazariegos, who is under US sanctions, the university has appointed aligned actors to influential bodies while sidelining independent academics and students who have mobilized against corruption and fraud at the institution. On January 19, Mazariegos was sworn in as head of the nominating commission for the TSE.
An independent rector is essential for ensuring that Guatemala’s judiciary is staffed by competent professionals rather than political operatives unwilling to confront organized crime.
What role the United States can play
Guatemala is central to US regional interests, as highlighted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision to include the country in his first foreign trip in early 2025. In recent years, Guatemala has become a major transit route for drugs and other illicit flows, while also serving both as a source of migrants and a transit country for hundreds of thousands more. If the institutions that are meant to address illicit activity and corruption remain captured, these trends will worsen, putting US national security at risk.
Guatemala is also one of the few countries in the region to recently sign a new trade deal with the Trump administration aimed at lowering tariffs and expanding investment and exports. However, reaching these objectives seems unattainable under a Guatemalan judiciary that favors certain interests at the expense of fair competition and foreign businesses.
For the United States, Guatemala has historically been a “friend in the Hemisphere,” as it is framed in the 2025 National Security Strategy. Guatemala remains a strong partner on issues such as drug trafficking, port security, Chinese influence, and migration. It is now time for Guatemala’s judicial institutions to align with that partnership and work for hemispheric security and prosperity rather than enabling the criminal networks that undermine them.
Here are four steps the United States can take with Guatemala in 2026.
1. Deploy proactive, sustained diplomacy
The United States should directly engage Guatemala’s party leaders, congressional blocs, and judicial elites, as well as members of the nominating commissions. The message should be unambiguous: Manipulating this year’s appointments will have consequences.
Elements of Guatemala’s private sector have financed efforts to influence appointments, largely because the current system shields them from competition and accountability. They must also understand that supporting such efforts risks diplomatic isolation and sanctions, including trade penalties, fines, and the suspension of trade benefits under the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement.
The US Embassy should be more vocal in calling out intimidation and providing protection or asylum when necessary. It must signal that candidates and commissioners facing threats will not be left alone and help foster reformist coalition-building.
2. Expand targeted sanctions—and use them early
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has already sanctioned more than fifty Guatemalan actors for corruption and anti-democratic actions. However, given the immense consequences of judicial capture, US sanctions should be broadened to target business elites financing institutional capture, commissioners accepting bribes, judges enabling impunity, and political operators coordinating interference.
Sanctions must go beyond travel bans to restrict access to banking systems and foreign assets. To be effective, these sanctions should be extended to immediate family members of the primary targets of sanctions, who are often used to circumvent restrictions.
Measures should be coordinated with partners such as the EU and especially Spain, where several sanctioned former Guatemalan officials have relocated.
3. Support observation and transparency efforts
Washington should support the EU and Organization of American States observation missions in Guatemala, as international presence can meaningfully deter manipulation across all stages of the nomination process.
Additionally, the unusual complexity of the 2026 appointment cycle, coupled with the high probability of illicit influence, warrants investing in transparency. The State Department should provide short-term, targeted grants to local civil society organizations and legal watchdog groups to follow the process and flag concerns in real time.
4. Mobilize the US and Guatemalan private sectors
Guatemala has the largest economy in Central America, and over two hundred US and other foreign firms have active investments in the country. Washington should encourage US businesses to communicate clearly that judicial capture will jeopardize investment and redirect capital to more stable markets. The Guatemalan private sector should also be vocal in support of a clean election process and independent candidates.
High stakes, high reward
This year’s appointments offer a rare chance to break Guatemala’s cycle of institutional capture. Some actors are deliberately reframing the nominations as an ideological contest between left and right, hoping to shield themselves and cause US hesitation. In reality, the stakes are institutional, not ideological: It is a choice between a justice system that upholds the law and one that continues to serve criminal interests.
