Other than his self-created crisis in dealing with refugees and immigrants from the Musllim World, two areas will demand Trump’s immediate attention: the war in Afghanistan and foreign aid.
Indian Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval both visited the United States within a month of the elections with the intention of getting to know the incoming administration, but their meetings haven’t led to any clear indication of just what shape the India-US relationship will take over the next four years.
The three pillars of US foreign policy until now have been: (1) the building of a liberal economic order institutionalized through global rule-based regimes; (2) the provisioning of public security goods through a combination of lone defense of the global commons and military alliances with regional powers; and (3) the promotion of a liberal democratic-constitutional order globally. Trump’s tweets and utterances suggest that his administration is likely to upend all three of them.
If Trump goes through with the radical modifications that he has proposed, India will have to make significant adjustments in its foreign policy. Most will likely induce significant domestic pain for New Delhi.
“In any geopolitical situation… you’ll find energy is either an enabler or an issue that you need to resolve,” Al Mazrouei said at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi on January 12.
“The ban not only provides fuel for the radicals, but it also undermines American diplomacy, American business, and the ability of our military to operate abroad,” said Lawrence Pintak, a nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, where he focuses on the US relationship with the Muslim world and the media’s role in shaping global perceptions and policies.
“Trump just handed [the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham] a gift. Anwar al-Awlaki, the late American-born al Qaeda propagandist, predicted that one day the United States would turn against its Muslim citizens. In extremist social media chatrooms today, his followers are calling this a ‘blessed ban,’” he added.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) sees order as a ‘gift’ to hardliners in IranUS President Donald Trump’s executive order that curtails immigration and the rights of refugees is illegal, has “catastrophic implications” for the United States, and is a “gift” to hardliners in Iran as it paints all Iranians as a security threat to the United States, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said at the Atlantic Council in Washington on January 30.
“This ban on immigration from Iran to the United States is a gift to the hardliners at a moment in which we should not be giving them gifts,” said Murphy, noting that it comes at a particularly delicate time for the moderates in Iran soon after the death of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on January 8. “This is a movement that does not need another body blow, and yet they got it,” said Murphy.
Alogoskoufis contended that globalization is good for societies as a whole, but there are individuals who lose in this system. “Europe cannot go on ignoring the losers,” he said, because “the losses are real enough for those who suffer them,” and nationalist, populist movements target these disaffected people.
“The idea of political transition in Syria is done,” said Faysal Itani, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. “The opposition can no longer achieve political change through military action, or indeed through the negotiation process,” he said.
“There was never any way that that was going to happen unless there was military leverage used against the regime, because the regime was never going to agree to a political transition, nor has it ever pretended that it would,” he added.
“It is a troubling development for a relationship that has few parallels throughout the world,” said Peter Schechter, director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
On January 26, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto cancelled his visit to the United States and a planned meeting with Trump after the US president insisted that Mexico pay for the border wall. Peña Nieto has insisted that Mexico will not foot the bill for the wall.