There are close elections, and there is Peru’s 2026 run-off election. After an over weeklong, nail-biting ballot counting, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori is projected to be elected Peru’s next president. With 99 percent of the votes counted as of Tuesday afternoon, she has pulled over thirty five thousand votes ahead of her left-wing challenger, Roberto Sánchez, with Fujimori’s lead steadily growing in the last few days.
For a look at what Fujimori’s likely victory means for Peru’s governability and future foreign policy, we turned to our regional experts.
Who is Peru’s likely president-elect?
Fujimori is, arguably, the most recognizable political figure in Peru in the last two decades. She is the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, who governed the country from 1990 to 2000, when his regime collapsed amid corruption scandals. This year, Keiko Fujimori, who served as first lady to her father, ran her fourth presidential campaign on the two pillars of Fujimorismo: a tough-on-crime agenda inspired by her father’s campaign against domestic terrorism in the 1990s, and a staunch defense of Peru’s market-oriented economic model. That model, introduced during her father’s government, has underpinned Peru’s economic growth despite recurring political crises.
The tight election result reflects a deep divide within Peruvian society, a divide that reemerges every election cycle, reminding Peruvians of where the country’s most salient political cleavages lie.
The June 7 runoff became a contest between two competing visions of the country. Sánchez questioned the foundations of Peru’s market-led growth model and drew support from poorer and more rural regions. Fujimori, by contrast, offered an unapologetic defense of the economic model that has defined Peru for three decades, attracting support from more affluent urban voters and Peruvians abroad. Peruvians voted in favor of that vision, but the narrow margin does not constitute a wide mandate. Fujimori’s party holds enough Senate and Congress seats to avoid impeachment, but effective governing will require compromises.
To put an end to Peru’s long-running political instability, Fujimori will need to demonstrate that the country’s economic model can finally deliver greater inclusion, opportunity, and state presence for the millions of Peruvians who feel excluded from the country’s prosperity.
—Martin Cassinelli, a native of Peru, is an assistant director with the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center
What impact will Fujimori’s likely victory have on US policy?
Fujimori is certainly the United States’ preferred candidate. Although unlike this weekend’s election in Colombia or last year’s contest in Honduras, US President Donald Trump refrained from an endorsement. The US administration has held off on extending Fujimori an official congratulations (although it must be counting the hours until it can do so). This is a smart move given the deep polarization in Peru as reflected by not just Fujimori’s slim lead at the moment (28,663 votes as of June 15 at 9:36 p.m.) but by the fact that the last two presidential contests, which Fujimori lost in 2016 and 2021, were decided by just over forty thousand votes.
As president, Fujimori would bring a pro-business approach to an economy that has long been lauded for its macroeconomic stability despite constant political upheaval. Her administration would be positioned to accelerate economic growth at a time of great geopolitical opportunity for Peru. Prices of critical minerals are rising, and Peru is a mineral powerhouse, with large reserves of copper, silver, and molybdenum. Peru is also well placed geostrategically, with a long coastline and ports that can serve to access markets of neighboring countries. As president, Fujimori would be able to work with the Trump administration to attract the strategic investment that the United States is seeking to make across the region, especially in areas critical for economic security.
And Fujimori would also be a strong partner for the United States’ tough-on-criminal-organizations approach in the Western Hemisphere. In fact, Alberto Fujimori, Keiko’s father, is in many ways the modern historical reference of mano dura policies to combat crime and insecurity. For him, it was the fight against the Shining Path, although with tactics that landed him in jail. Keiko Fujimori continued that legacy of tough-on-crime rhetoric during the campaign. As the Trump administration builds out allies for initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas, she will likely be a good partner.
—Jason Marczak is vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center
How will Fujimori position Peru with China and the United States?
Although Fujimori was initially seen as the candidate with closer ties with Washington, she didn’t take sides between the US and China during her campaign for the presidency. Now, as the likely president-elect, she will almost certainly maintain that position, adopting a pragmatic strategy that appears to prioritize Peru’s international economic interests and seeks to seize opportunities. This means that her government cannot simply turn its back on one of Peru’s main trading and investment partners: China. It also cannot ignore the US as an important political and diplomatic ally.
Fujimori recognizes Peru’s geostrategic importance in Latin America and its potential to become a major trade hub in the Asia-Pacific region. Choosing a zero-sum strategy between the two powers would hinder some of the efforts the country has pursued to maintain economic stability amid political crises. Yet, sustaining economic and institutional trust as well as ensuring the resilience of Peru’s economic engines of growth while facing political dysfunction has become increasingly difficult. One of Fujimori’s main challenges is to rebuild that trust and address the structural challenges of governability.
These elections have underscored the country’s deep polarization and an acute discontent with its ever-changing leadership. With Fujimori’s win, there is guarded optimism for more balance between the executive and legislative bodies, unlike under previous presidents. However, capturing the opportunities from Peru’s global partnerships will require improved governance, institutional reform, legitimacy, and the protection of the rule of law.
—Victoria Chonn-Ching, PhD, a native of Peru, is a nonresident fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.