Beyond the Horizon: Understanding the Future for Better Development Today

On December 17, 2013 the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, in partnership with the US Agency for International Development and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, will host the launch of the highly anticipated book The Future Can’t Wait (PDF). Read on for an a preview of the launch by the Wilson Center’s Kathleen Mogelgaard in their Environmental Change and Security Program blog, New Security Beat

While futures analysis and scenario development is common in the intelligence community, the military, and the private sector, it has not been consistently applied in the practice of development.

The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends reports are prime examples of comprehensive futures analysis. The Council provides long-term strategic analysis for the US government’s intelligence community, and its Global Trends reports are released at the beginning of each U.S. presidential term, offering a comprehensive look at plausible long-term disruptions and changes to the global order. The latest edition, Global Trends 2030, outlines a series of plausible global scenarios for the future, finding that demographic shifts and environmental changes are likely to be significant shaping forces.“We have alternative futures. Some of them are not very good, and we could be rapidly heading toward one of these alternative worlds,” said Mathew J. Burrows, director of the Strategic Foresight Initiative at the Atlantic Council and lead author of Global Trends 2030, at the Wilson Center. “At the same time, we could also go in a positive direction. One of the key factors will be understanding the dynamics, trends, and possible disruptions.”

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Beyond the Horizon: Understanding the Future for Better Development Today