TRADE in ACTION – April 13, 2017

This week in TradeinAction: After concluding his multi-day meeting with President Xi Jinping of China, President Trump  made many important policy reversals such as ceasing to advocate for the designation of China as a “currency manipulator” and voicing support for the Export-Import Bank. After many rounds of reforms, the International Monetary Fund has agreed to unlock new funds as part of the Greek debt relief program while a new WTO Trade Forecast expects trade recovery in 2017 and 2018, amid policy uncertainty.

SPOTLIGHT
The Trump Bump vs Dump Trump: How Investors Decipher the Trump Presidency 
As the Trump administration nears the one hundred day mark of its tenure, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Julie Chon is featured in the Financial Times analyzing President Trump’s policy proposals and performance thus far.  Ms. Chon highlights political and governmental similarities shared by the presidency of Donald Trump and the terms in office of other comparable world leaders to identify potential pitfalls and outcomes. Most importantly, Ms. Chon gives market analysts and investors a simple, straightforward rubric by which to evaluate President Trump’s performance and its impact on the greater economy.  
Find out more about what the future holds for investors during the Trump presidency!

TRADE
Statistics & Outlook: Trade Recovery Expected in 2017 and 2018, amid Policy Uncertainty, World Trade Organization
Policy Paper: Making Trade an Engine of Growth for All: The Case for Trade and for Policies to Facilitate Adjustment, International Monetary Fund
Analysis: Role of Trade as Growth Driver is Threatened: IMF, WTO, World Bank, Reuters
News: Trump Says He offered China Better Trade Terms in Exchange for Help on North Korea, Baker, Lee & Bender, The Wall Street Journal
News: China Offers Concessions to Avert Trade War with US, Mishra & Mahler, Financial Times

Interview: China Must Produce ‘Tangible Results’ on Trade soon, Wilbur Ross, Fox Business
Interview: Innovating for Growth in Europe, Neil R. Brown, KKR

News: Italy Calls for G7 to Challenge Donald Trump on Trade, James Politi, Financial Times
News: Chile, China Start Talks to Expand Trade Deal, Yahoo 7 News (AFP)
Press Release: EU and Japan Conclude 18th Round of Trade Talks, European Commission
Press Release: EU and Australia One Step Closer to Launching Trade Negotiations, European Commission

Analysis: Technology Hits Workers’ Income Share more than Trade, IMF Says, Andrew Mayeda, Bloomberg
Analysis: Interim EU Trade Deal to Hit UK Services Hard, Hans Von Der Burchard, Politico Europe
Policy Brief: EU- UK Future Relations: A Trade Oriented Brexit, Eurochambres
News: US Commerce Chief Says EXIM Bank Part of Trump ‘Trade Toolbox’, David Lawder, Reuters

Analysis: NAFTA, Trump, Canada and Trade: What’s Going On? A Guide, The Globe and Mail
Report: State of American Small Business: Time to seize Main Street’s Moment of Opportunity, Thomas Sullivan, US Chamber of Commerce

TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK
tweet of the week 1 April 13 2017 
Did you know that… Americans are expected to spend $18.4 billion on Easter this year — 6 percent more than they did last year? It is  an all-time high in the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) 14-year history conducting the survey. Plus, it is more than the NRF predicted shoppers would spend on Valentine’s Day ($18.2 billion). So long, cupid. We are all about that Easter bunny now! (NBC News

GLOBALIZATION
Speech: Building a More Resilient and Inclusive Global Economy, Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund
News: Nations Should Help those Hurt by Free Trade, Report Says, Paul Wiseman, Houston Chronicle
Analysis: Emerging Markets are Set to Lead Globalisation, Wang Wen, Financial Times
Opinion: It’s too Late to Compensate Free Trade’s Losers, Dani Rodrik, MarketWatch
Report: IMF, WTO, OECD Will Defend Free Trade Against Protectionism, IndustryWeek (AFP)
Analysis: ‘Sword of Protectionism’ Hangs over Global Recovery, says IMF, Financial Times
Analysis: Globalisation and Protectionism, Bikash Sinha, The Statesman
News: BOE’s Carney Says Brexit will Test Commitment to Globalization, Jason Douglas, Wall Street Journal

News: Global Institutions Mount Joint Defence of Trade Benefits, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times
Success Story: Globalisation Helps New Zealand Family Business Tap China Market, Song Jingli, The Telegraph
Analysis: The High Costs of Ending Globalisation, Australian Financial Review

Analysis: America is Failing Workers left behind by the New Economy, Karen Tramontano, Washington Monthly

WHAT WE ARE READING
Opinion: Role Reversal in the Xi-Trump Summit, Andrew Small, German Marshall Fund
Op-Ed: Donald Trump, the Closet European, Matthew Karnitschnig, Politico Europe
Analysis: Explainer: Trump is Considering an Executive Order on Import Dumping. What’s That About? Elizabeth Brotherton Bunch, American Manufacturing
Analysis: The US College Debt Bubble is Becoming Dangerous, Financial Times

UPCOMING
MEETINGS
April 20: Cecilia Malmström meets with Ms. Susana Malcorra, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Argentina
April 21-23IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
​​​​​
April 25: US House of Representatives returns to session in Washington, DC
April 26: European Parliament Plenary meeting in Brussels
April 27: Cecilia Malmström visits Copenhagen & Malmö; meets with Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Anders Samuelsen, and holds events with citizens.
​​​​
April 29: EU Leaders Summit
May 3: European Commission releases Guidance on Brexit Negotiations
June 26-30: Fourth Round of Mexico-EU Trade Negotiations

EVENTS
April 19: How Should the Government approach Brexit Negotiations? Institute for Government, London
April 20: The European Stability Mechanism- A Firewall for the Eurozone and first Line of Defense for Global Financial Stability? Atlantic Council, Washington, DC
April 20: Brazil’s Reforms & the Future of the Middle Class, Atlantic Council, Washington, DC
April 20: Can Europe deliver on a pro-growth agenda? American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC​​​​
April 20: A Fiscal Stabilisation Function for the Euro Area, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels
April 21: Multilateral Cooperation-The Key to a New Era of Inclusive Global Development? Atlantic Council, Washington, DC
April 27: International Corporate Tax Update: Repatriation & the Characterization of Debt Instruments, European American Chamber of Commerce, New York City

Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
John Butler, Program Intern

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email [email protected] with your ideas and suggestions.
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.