COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Econographics deep dives

Special sections that go inside the Chinese economy, the evolution of sanctions, and the future of money.

 

Sinographs

In-depth analysis of economic and financial trends in the Chinese economy.

Fintech frontlines

Research and analysis on the intersection of technology and policy developments in finance.

Global sanctions dashboard

Monthly analysis of global sanctions regimes—highlighting new listings, delistings, and the motivations behind these changes.

Featured analysis

Economic Outlook for 2019

Econographics Feb 10, 2026

China’s warning on US Treasuries—and why its timing matters

By Jeremy Mark, Josh Lipsky

Beijing has joined the conversation on the dollar. It was leaked this week that Chinese regulators have been urging domestic financial institutions to cut back on US Treasuries, and this timing is no coincidence.
China Dollar Dominance
Economic Outlook for 2019

Econographics Feb 4, 2026

Understanding the vibe shift on the dollar

By Daniel McDowell, Bart Piasecki, Jessie Yin

Gold prices surged to record highs last week, driven by trade tensions, tariffs, and dollar uncertainty. For some, the rally signals rising skepticism about the greenback’s stability—even as policymakers insist the US remains committed to a strong dollar.
Dollar Dominance Economy & Business
Economic Outlook for 2019

Econographics Jan 22, 2026

When will Wall Street’s tolerance for uncertainty run out?

By Jessie Yin, Josh Lipsky

In a decade of geoeconomic shocks, few events have truly shaken investor confidence. But Wall Street may be too complacent to political volatility.
Economy & Business Macroeconomics

Latest analysis

Econographics

Feb 24, 2026

In Munich, a reminder that economic security is national security

By Kimberly Donovan, Lize de Kruijf

Policymakers at this year's MSC raised economic security as an issue that they cannot cordon off separately from traditional security issues.

Economy & Business European Union

Econographics

Feb 24, 2026

The European Central Bank’s next president may decide the fate of the digital euro

By Alisha Chhangani, Jacopo Pastorelli

The four frontrunners don't oppose the digital euro, but their positions differ on pace, framing, and the risks they're most concerned about.

Digital Currencies Economy & Business

Econographics

Feb 20, 2026

To bridge the transatlantic productivity divide, Europe needs structural reforms—and AI

By Hung Tran

Policymakers and investors should actively incentivize laggard firms to adopt productivity-enhancing practices and technologies.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

Econographics

Feb 12, 2026

Despite US exemptions, the show goes on for a global minimum corporate tax

By Jeff Goldstein

The United States may have carved out protections for its multinationals, but the global minimum tax continues to move forward. With more than sixty-five countries implementing the OECD framework, policymakers are betting imperfect progress will prevent a relapse into corporate tax competition.

Economy & Business Europe & Eurasia

Econographics

Feb 10, 2026

China’s warning on US Treasuries—and why its timing matters

By Jeremy Mark, Josh Lipsky

Beijing has joined the conversation on the dollar. It was leaked this week that Chinese regulators have been urging domestic financial institutions to cut back on US Treasuries, and this timing is no coincidence.

China Dollar Dominance

Econographics

Feb 6, 2026

Iran can still normalize its economy—but the path will be painful and slow

By Bart Piasecki

Iran’s inflation crisis is driven by persistent exchange‑rate instability, entrenched fiscal dominance, and international sanctions. Despite these structural challenges, there remains a clear—but difficult—path toward economic normalization.

Dollar Dominance Economy & Business

Econographics

Feb 4, 2026

What the data shows—and doesn’t show—about the future of the dollar

By Hung Tran

Is there genuine demand to “sell America,” or does the recent dollar weakness fall within historical fluctuations? More data will be needed to answer that question.

Dollar Dominance Economy & Business

Econographics

Feb 4, 2026

Understanding the vibe shift on the dollar

By Daniel McDowell, Bart Piasecki, Jessie Yin

Gold prices surged to record highs last week, driven by trade tensions, tariffs, and dollar uncertainty. For some, the rally signals rising skepticism about the greenback’s stability—even as policymakers insist the US remains committed to a strong dollar.

Dollar Dominance Economy & Business

Econographics

Jan 28, 2026

China’s property slump deepens—and threatens more than the housing sector

By Jeremy Mark

China's property sector slump is in its fifth year, with no end in sight. This poses real risks to the banking system and the country's financial stability.

China Economy & Business

Econographics

Jan 26, 2026

Africa enters 2026 facing a debt crisis. The answer lies in regional solutions.

By Juliet Lancey

The solution to debt crises in African nations lies in global and regional cooperation.

Africa Financial Regulation
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Content

Blogs

Dec 21, 2018

Economic Outlook for 2019

By Global Business & Economics Program

December 2018 is set to become the worst year-end finish for US markets since 1931. A yield curve inversion combined with the fourth annual rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and growing geo-political uncertainty, triggered widespread angst among US investors about an economic slowdown and the increasing probability of a recession. This edition of the EconoGraphic assesses key economic indicators to make a case that while a slowing of the US economy seems certain, a recession in the next two years remains unlikely.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Dec 5, 2018

Trade Disrupted: US and China Need More Than a Truce

By Ole Moehr

At this year’s G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the trade dispute between China and the United States took center stage. Chinese President Xi and his US counterpart President Donald Trump agreed to avoid further escalations of the ongoing bilateral trade war for the next 90 days. The temporary deal does not assuage the escalatory measures already taken, leaving the existing tariffs in place. This edition of the EconoGraphic explores how the brewing trade conflict is impacting manufacturing supply chains, soybean cargo routes, and trade flows of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among the United States, China, and the rest of the world.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 22, 2018

There’s a New Tariff in Town: Implications of Trump’s Steel Tariffs

By Ole Moehr

Economists consider tariffs a tax on consumers. Case in point, President Trump’s former chief economic advisor Gary Cohn. He recently warned that the administration’s twenty-five percent tariff on steel and ten percent tariff on aluminum combined with threatened duties on Chinese goods could cancel out the 2017 tax cut. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides an overview of how the Trump Administration’s steel tariffs might impact the US economy.

Economy & Business Trade and tariffs

EconoGraphics

Jun 4, 2018

GDPR’s Quest for World Domination

By Ole Moehr

On May 25, the European Union’s (EU) sweeping new data privacy regulation came into force. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides EU residents with more control and protection of their data.

Brazil Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

May 18, 2018

US Sanctions’ Global Impact – A Case Study of RUSAL’s Supply Chain

By Ole Moehr

On April 6, 2018, the Trump Administration imposed stiff economic sanctions on 37 Russian oligarchs, oligarch-owned companies, Russian government officials, and state-owned companies.

Economy & Business Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion
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