Artificial Intelligence
Elections
Energy & Environment
Security & Defense
Trade and tariffs
United States and Canada
What the midterms will (and won’t) change for US foreign policy
GET UP TO SPEED
The Capitol has a new hue. Democrats swept both chambers of the US Congress on Tuesday, giving them new leverage over spending and oversight. But President Donald Trump still maintains substantial power in foreign policy, while voter anxiety over affordability is adding pressure of its own. Our experts explain where the power shift could change policy—and where it won’t.
TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY
- Landon Derentz (@Landon_Derentz): Vice president for energy and infrastructure and former director of energy on the National Security Council
- Jonathan Panikoff (@jpanikoff): Senior director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Near East
- Josh Lipsky (@Joshualipsky): Vice president and chair of international economics and former advisor at the International Monetary Fund
- Torrey Taussig (@torrey_taussig): Director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and former director for European affairs on the National Security Council
What’s next on Iran
- Landon expects Trump to keep “sustained economic pressure” on Iran even after voters punished Republicans for the high prices the war with Tehran has helped produce. Military escalation remains possible, he says, “even at the expense of regional stability and energy prices.”
- Jonathan sees an even shorter window for military action. If Trump plans to strike Iran hard again, he argues, “it’s going to happen during this lame-duck period” before Democrats take their seats in Congress in January.
- Either way, the Middle East “faces a long-term, low-intensity conflict without a full resolution,” Jonathan warns. As the political climate shifts, there’s a possibility “the United States leaves, the Gulf states make their own accommodations, and Israel faces the challenge of having to decide how to manage the challenge of Iran’s ballistic-missile and nuclear capabilities, potentially without nearly as much US support.”
The economic impact
- With major showdowns ahead over funding the government and lifting the debt ceiling, “don’t be surprised to see some deals in the coming year” that increase spending and deficits, Josh tells us. That would increase the US debt and strain the bond market, he adds.
- Tariffs may prove resistant to the election result. Voters sent a clear message regarding their unhappiness with how tariffs have increased prices, Josh notes. But “Trump will reject any attempt to limit the use of his favorite tool,” which means countries hoping for a post-midterms “break on tariff rates” will be disappointed.
- But there’s one possible exception: Canada, where Josh says there may be “enough bipartisan support to override some of the president’s tariffs” and push Trump to “reengage” on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which he has declined to renew.
- Meanwhile, on China, Josh says Trump may refocus “on what has been the core animating economic idea since he first ran for president—China’s unfair trading practices,” where he “may find a rare area of bipartisan consensus.”
- Landon foresees a legacy-defining opportunity on energy that will be hard for the next president to roll back, as Trump makes “a renewed push to expand conventional energy production, export capacity, and the infrastructure needed to power the United States’ artificial intelligence and manufacturing ambitions.”
Sign up to receive rapid insight in your inbox from Atlantic Council experts on global events as they unfold.
The power in the purse
- Torrey expects Democrats to “start paving the way for a new approach to working with US allies” when they take control of committees, and thus hearings and investigations, in January.
- The first areas where this policy influence will play out, Torrey predicts, will be negotiations over the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act and hearings on US troop levels in Europe.
- Jonathan anticipates the shift reaching Israel too, particularly after Trump announced his intent to cut off four billion dollars in annual assistance. “Most aid to Israel is likely to end in the way we know it,” he says, though joint weapons production may continue.
- Zooming out, Landon thinks Trump will “lean more heavily on his substantial executive and foreign-policy authority” in areas where Congress has less sway, including negotiations over the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
- The president, Landon observes, “faces a narrowing window to translate his priorities into durable policy and investment decisions before the 2028 presidential race takes hold.”
Related Reading
Image: The sun rises behind the US Capitol following the US midterm elections in Washington, DC, US, November 4, 2026. (REUTERS/Eric Lee)