Through our Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the Atlantic Council works with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region.

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All commentary & analysis

New Atlanticist

Jan 11, 2020

A US ambassador’s memories of Sultan Qaboos

By Marc J. Sievers

Oman’s longtime ruler dedicated himself to building a modern state and put Oman on the world map as an international center of dialogue and reason.

New Atlanticist

Jan 10, 2020

US reportedly targets another top Iranian military figure, Abdul Reza Shahlai

By Thomas S. Warrick

US forces tried to target Shahlai, a senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps–Qods Force leader currently located in Yemen.

Iran

MENASource

Jan 10, 2020

Reverberations from Soleimani death requires vigilance in NYC

By Mitchell Silber and Ioan Pop

NYC has been an iconic target for potential terrorist attacks as it is seen as the ultimate symbol of American power. After Soleimani, it is with high confidence that the threat of retaliation by Hezbollah in New York City is seen as a genuine threat which must be treated with extreme vigilance.

Extremism
Intelligence

New Atlanticist

Jan 10, 2020

Dagres in PRI: Analysis: Iran-US relationship still precarious with no clear US strategy in sight

By Atlantic Council

Iran
Middle East

New Atlanticist

Jan 9, 2020

Democratic lawmakers criticize Trump administration policy after Soleimani targeting

By David A. Wemer

“This entire escalatory lead up,” Murphy contended, “was all an exercise of choice.” While both Democratic lawmakers conceded that Soleimani—who led the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force—was an enemy of the United States and responsible for the deaths of US soldiers, they called into question the administration’s decision to target Soleimani on Iraqi soil and at a moment of such high tensions in the region.

Conflict
Iran

MENASource

Jan 9, 2020

Qasem Soleimani and escalatory parity

By Frederic C. Hof

For the better part of forty years, American action and inaction have persuaded the Islamic Republic that it could act with impunity; that the United States feared the escalatory implications of push-back. That dangerous, destabilizing belief seems to have been suspended with the killing of Soleimani.

Iran
Politics & Diplomacy

MENASource

Jan 8, 2020

The context of today’s Libyan crisis and what to watch for

By Karim Mezran, Emily Burchfield

On April 4, 2019, troops led by Khalifa Haftar, a former general of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi who now contests the authority of the UN-sponsored Government of National Accord (GNA) seated in Tripoli, launched an attack against the Libyan capital. The real reasons for staging such an attack on that specific day are still unclear.

Libya
Politics & Diplomacy

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

De-escalation still possible after Iran’s missile retaliation

By Atlantic Council

Iran avoided a central US red line, and “therefore, the Trump administration will have the opportunity to test Iranian claims that they truly do not seek any further escalation,” Will Wechsler says.

Conflict
Iran

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Iran’s missiles may have avoided the worst outcome

By Thomas S. Warrick

If there had been significant US casualties, the world would have awoken to the dawn of a regional war, because the Trump administration would have been compelled to attack the launch sites in Iran—and probably other targets in Iran, also. If the present news holds, the situation is slightly less dangerous, if still perilous.

Conflict
Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Washington and Tehran can step back – if they want to

By William F. Wechsler

After the January 8 Iranian missile attacks on Iraq, a successful tactical de-escalation requires both that the Iranian leadership intends for its military actions not to be escalatory and that the Trump administration perceives those actions as they were intended. In the absence of direct communications between the United States and Iran, however, the potential for misunderstanding and thus the risk of miscalculation remains high.

Conflict
Geopolitics & Energy Security