May 19, 2014
Short-Term Stability in Sinai Will Exacerbate Tensions for Egyptâ€™s Next President
The May 26-27 election for Egyptâ€™s next president is all but certain to result in a resounding victory for retired Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the former defense minister, who ousted the Muslim Brotherhoodâ€™s Mohamed Morsi last July.
The Sisi campaign has opted not to issue a policy platform, enabling its candidate to be all things to all people. Sisiâ€™s own statements acknowledge the challenges Egypt faces with its economic, energy, development, and employment sectors; however neither he nor his team has laid out a clear, measurable vision for addressing these problems. Sisiâ€™s slogan may be â€śLong live Egypt,â€ť but unofficially the message is â€śIâ€™ll do what has to be done.â€ť
As such, the life-long military man will be elected with a clear mandate to secure stability in Sinai, through any means necessary. Addressing Egyptâ€™s energy crisis and cash crunch will require tough decisions, each of which is sure to ruffle vocal segments of society. As it did last summer, however, Egyptâ€™s population is likely to tolerate â€“ if not vocally support â€“ a continuation of the crackdown Egyptian forces have conducted in North Sinai over the past few months.
Sisi and other Egyptian military leaders have justified the slow pace of stabilizing the peninsula by noting their desire â€śto avoid civilian casualties.â€ť However, there is little actual reporting out of Sinai and the general population seems to prefer to remain unaware of the situation. Suggestions that perhaps 200 or 280 civilians have been killed in military operations â€“ let alone the number of detained individuals â€“ have only been covered in Brotherhood-sympathetic outlets, and the figures have not been verified. North Sinai is generally a closed military zone to journalists, and Sisi himself told newspaper editors that they should not be â€śscaring people.â€ť
If â€śmainlandâ€ť Egyptians do not care what happens in Sinai, the international community has signaled that it does care: it wants stability, and quickly. The US government, which has a strong relationship with the Egyptian military, regularly laments Egyptian policies it sees as counterproductive to a democratic transition. The US administration, however, praises Egyptian military operations in the Sinai. Even if US officials do privately raise concerns about indiscriminate use of airpower, the decision to release ten Apache helicopters â€“ held since the summer â€“ to the Egyptian military sends the message, â€śKeep up the good work.â€ť
With Egyptians distracted by their own problems in Cairo and other population centers, and with the United States not discouraging the developments, under the likely presidential victor Sisi, the Sinai Peninsula will face a quick reconstitution of the security state that existed prior to the 2011 uprising.
In the short term, repressive tactics can work to quiet the Sinai and halt Salafi-jihadists from using Sinai to launch attacks west of the Suez Canal. It has been almost four months since Sinaiâ€™s Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis has claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack outside the peninsula, following â€śunprecedentedâ€ť military raids that begin in late January.
Even if one ignores the human rights and rule of law issues involved, however, such a crackdown is certain to result in blowback in the medium- to long-term. After all, this is what happened during the 2011 uprising: before the revolution provided the opportunity for vengeance, crackdowns in response to the bombings of tourist resorts from 2004-2006 produced five years of relative quiet in Sinai. While capturing violent actors is necessary for stabilizing Sinai, harsh treatment of the broader Sinai population will exacerbate support for such anti-state violence, and that support will simmer below the surface as long as the peninsulaâ€™s legitimate political and developmental grievances go unmet.
Sisi recognizes the need for development assistance in Sinai; but he is not the first Egyptian presidential candidate to pledge attention to Sinaiâ€™s needs. Given other concerns about Egyptâ€™s economy and stability, neither Egyptians nor the international community pay much attention to Sinai. To them, it is a security problem and they just want Sisi to take care it. In the short-term, he will.
Zack Gold is a Washington-based Middle East analyst and author of the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism â€“ The Hague research paper â€śSecurity in the Sinai: Present and Future.â€ť Follow him on Twitter: @ZLGold