Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) goes to the polls on October 4 for its tenth general election since the Bosnian war ended in 1995. The vote will take place under the constitutional regime created by the Dayton Peace Agreement, even as the country strives to move beyond the ethnic divisions historically embedded in that system.
The election is unlikely to resolve longstanding political divisions or produce a clear path toward European Union (EU) accession, NATO membership, or a more settled transatlantic alignment. However, breakthroughs by the Republika Srpska (RS) opposition could potentially moderate Bosnian politics by weakening the institutional power of the overtly Russia- and China-aligned Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD). RS opposition gains could also pave the way to meaningful dialogue between Sarajevo and Banja Luka, thus at least restoring basic government functionality. More generally, clearer governing majorities at both the Bosnian state and entity levels would likewise clarify debates over the future of the Office of the High Representative and other major policy questions.
Whatever the result, the next government will inherit a balancing act. Below, experts from the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center explain how Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constitutional structure works, who the political players are, and the biggest challenges the next government will face.
1. What is on the ballot?
On October 4, voters will choose representatives to the state presidency, the state parliament, the two entity assemblies, and ten cantonal assemblies. Among the most consequential contests is the composition of the three-member presidency, which nominates the next chair of the Council of Ministers and sets the tone for the country’s overall geopolitical direction.
In all, more than five hundred officials will be on the ballot. As of May 2026, 3.4 million voters were registered. This number is thought to be inflated, however, and the introduction of new electronic voting technology is expected to produce a more accurate measure of turnout than in the 2022 election.
2. What is the domestic political context of this election?
Bosnia and Herzegovina remains politically paralyzed over several internal issues. For example, the future of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) is in question, and some political groups in the country have revived calls for further partition along Bosniak, Serb, and Croat ethnic lines.
Swathes of BiH’s electoral and political system remain in violation of rulings by the country’s own courts and the European Court of Human Rights, which has found key elements of the constitutional structure discriminatory. Persistent political deadlock has prevented reforms for years, even as the EU considers such changes an integral part of the country’s accession process.
In addition, this is the first general vote since the criminal conviction and subsequent removal from office of longtime RS leader Milorad Dodik. Dodik was convicted of defying binding decisions of the High Representative by pushing through a package of secessionist laws that had been blocked. His actions came after the High Representative amended the Criminal Code to make public officials’ failure to implement court decisions and OHR rulings a criminal offense. These are also the first general elections to use biometric voter identification and electronic ballot scanners. The technology was first introduced with EU support in 2024 with the goal of reducing voter fraud, speeding up vote counting, and increasing public trust. The change comes amid longstanding concerns over illegal voting and disputed ballot counts and is expected to produce results that may upset the longstanding domination of key ruling blocs while also providing better insight into the scale of demographic decline across the country.
3. How do elections work in Bosnia and Herzegovina?
The system
BiH’s electoral system is exceedingly complex, and eligibility for some offices is determined by a mix of residency and ethnicity. Seats in some institutions are divided by ethnic quotas, meaning a set number of positions are reserved for representatives of each constituent people and those classified as “Others.” A key example is BiH’s tripartite presidency, where one seat is reserved for a Bosniak, one for a Croat, and one for a Serb. The Bosniak and Croat candidates are only elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is only elected from the RS. In other words, Serbs in the Federation entity cannot vote for the Serb member of the presidency, and the same applies to Bosniaks and Croats in the RS entity.
At the polls, ballots depend in part on which of the country’s entities the voter lives in. All voters cast ballots at the state level and for their respective entity, but which candidates appear on the ballot varies depending on where you live. Residents of the Brčko District, which has a special autonomous status, choose between a Federation or RS ballot.
State
Every voter picks one member of the three-person presidency. Federation voters choose between Bosniak and Croat candidates. RS voters can choose among Serbs. The candidate with the most votes wins each seat and serves a four-year term, with the chair rotating among the three every eight months.
Voters also shape the forty-two-seat House of Representatives, one of two chambers of the Parliamentary Assembly. Seats are allocated by proportional representation with open lists, allowing voters to choose both a party and individual candidates. The Federation elects twenty-eight members and RS elects fourteen.
Federation entity
On top of the national vote, Federation entity voters elect the 98-member House of Representatives of the Federation.
They also elect their canton’s assembly. The Federation has ten cantons, regional units with their own governments, and 289 deputies will be elected across them. The results of these cantonal assembly elections then determine the composition of the Federation entity House of Peoples, a distinct body from the similarly named House of Peoples of the state parliament.
Republika Srpska entity
RS voters elect a president and two vice presidents of the entity with a single vote. The highest-polling Bosniak, Croat, and Serb candidates each win one of the three posts; the candidate with the most votes overall becomes president, and the other two become vice presidents.
Voters also elect representatives to the eighty-three-member National Assembly.
4. Who are the key players?
State
The composition of the Bosnian presidency will perhaps be the most significant factor in setting the tone for the next four years. It will also significantly influence the composition of the state governing coalition and relations between political actors in Sarajevo and Banja Luka.
The national government is currently run by three blocs: the Serb nationalist SNSD, the Croat nationalist Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), and the Bosniak-led Troika alliance, which consists of three parties. The Party of Democratic Action (SDA), a Bosniak conservative bloc and the single largest party in parliament, has been shut out of government since 2022. No bloc can win a clean majority, so expect a long coalition fight after the vote.
Presidency incumbents Denis Bećirović (SDP BiH) and Željka Cvijanović (SNSD) are seeking reelection, while Croat incumbent Željko Komšić (Democratic Front) is not up for reelection. His party has nominated Slaven Kovačević, while the HDZ BiH has put forward Darijana Filipović. The ethnic Croat opposition parties have put forward a third candidate who is not seen as a leading contender. Among the Croat electorate, the smallest of the three main constituencies, support divided among multiple candidates may be decisive.
Federation entity
The Federation government has been led by a Troika-HDZ BiH coalition since 2022, buttressed by an amalgam of smaller, primarily Bosniak-supported parties. Results in the Sarajevo and Tuzla cantons will likely determine the shape of the next Federation government. The SDA and SDP appear to have agreed in principle to a grand coalition, but the performance of NiP, NS, DF, and SBiH will determine its broader composition.
Due to High Representative Christian Schmidt’s 2022 changes to the region’s electoral law, it is highly unlikely that a government without the HDZ BiH will be possible, given the party’s strength in the entity’s House of Peoples. Coalition talks at the state, Federation, and Sarajevo-canton levels are all likely to overlap, as has often been the case.
Republika Srpska entity
Something to watch during these elections is how the RS opposition, particularly SDS and PDP, performs after a close showing in the 2025 snap election that followed the criminal conviction and removal of Dodik as RS president in August 2025. Siniša Karan, who won that election by roughly ten thousand votes, is not seeking reelection.
A governing majority in the RS entity without the SNSD would be a political earthquake, as the party has dominated the entity’s government since 2006. The opposition is hoping the popularity of Banja Luka Mayor Draško Stanivuković will be enough to propel them in that direction. It also has an opportunity to win the RS seat in the Bosnian state presidency, a feat it has only ever managed once before, during Mladen Ivanić’s 2014–2018 term.
5. What could the election mean for the country’s EU, NATO, and transatlantic relationships?
Closer economic integration with the EU is one of the few areas of consensus among the country’s political leaders, while progress toward NATO membership remains limited and is openly opposed by RS leadership.
While BiH achieved full alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy in 2025, the country has already forfeited €108 million in EU funding tied to unmet accession benchmarks and stands to lose a further €370 million if the next government fails to advance reforms.
BiH was admitted into NATO’s Membership Action Plan in 2010 and has since 2018 submitted regular reform plans to Brussels. The SNSD maintains formal opposition to the country’s NATO membership, but its efforts to block the bid have found little success. In October 2025, NATO deployed its first Individually Tailored Partnership Program with the country. The implications and potential for political crisis would increase if SNSD performs well, as its leadership has signaled a desire to win US support for a major restructuring of the country’s political order, including RS independence and the immediate closure of the Office of the High Representative. Such moves, especially if pursued unilaterally, would almost certainly be opposed by Sarajevo and European governments because they inherently threaten the country’s territorial cohesion.
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