Could Iceland be the next European Union member? Ahead of an important referendum in Iceland on restarting accession talks with the currently twenty-seven-member bloc, Atlantic Council experts answer four pressing questions about this weekend’s referendum and its potential implications for Europe’s future.
What are Icelanders voting on?
When Icelanders go to the ballot box on August 29, they will answer a narrow but important question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?” Iceland had applied to join the EU in 2009, and accession negotiations began the following year. However, the country halted negotiations in 2013 due to opposition from then-Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson’s center-right government to the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy.
Sovereignty concerns over Iceland’s fisheries persist, but geopolitical uncertainties and the allure of the eurozone have renewed public interest in the prospect of membership, especially as the volatile Icelandic krona fuels the country’s high inflation and interest rates.
The current prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, who leads the Social Democratic Alliance, characterizes the referendum not as a vote on EU membership in itself, but as an opportunity to find out what kind of deal Iceland could secure. Frostadóttir and her party assert that Icelanders should be able to judge the terms of an accession treaty.
A “yes” vote would not make Iceland an EU member. If negotiations produced a treaty, Icelanders would return for a second vote on whether to join the bloc. But for that to happen, a majority of Icelandic voters will have to choose “yes” at polling stations on Saturday.
—Ian Hoerr is a young global professional at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
What is Iceland’s relationship with the EU currently?
Iceland is already deeply integrated with the EU. It has enjoyed strong economic ties since it joined the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 1970, and it has participated in the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, affording it access to the EU’s Single Market. It is also part of the Schengen Area, which provides free movement to the continent.
These arrangements give Iceland many of the benefits of European integration. Marta Kos, the current European Commissioner for Enlargement, has described Iceland as a “strong and strategic partner.”
However, important areas fall outside the EEA that Iceland’s accession negotiations must address. These include the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, a point of friction between the two parties. Iceland wants to maintain more sovereignty over an industry it considers integral to its economy, history, and identity. In 2023, for example, the fish sector made up a third of Iceland’s total goods exports by value.
In April, European Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans Costas Kadis said that there was “definitely room for flexibility” on fisheries policy, and he confirmed that possible exemptions would be part of negotiations with Iceland. Among the reasons for the EU’s apparent flexibility on this issue is the island’s strategic importance in Arctic geopolitics, which promises to intensify in the coming decades.
—Luca Scuriatti is a young global professional at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
How quickly could Iceland join the EU?
The potentially unsatisfying answer is, “It depends.”
Like all EU candidates, Iceland would need to adopt the EU’s gargantuan number of treaties, laws, regulations, and legal decisions known as the acquis communautaire. Iceland is in a strong position to do so, potentially setting up the country to advance quickly through membership talks.
Nor would Reykjavik be starting from scratch. Before previous talks were halted, Iceland had opened twenty-seven of the EU’s thirty-five thematic policy chapters for negotiation and provisionally closed eleven. Negotiations could theoretically pick up where things left off. In addition, Iceland’s economic integration with the EU means that it already aligns with many of the bloc’s rules. This could make Iceland’s reform process a speedier affair.
But there may be hurdles in the accession process, as well. Aligning on the EU’s rules relating to agriculture and fishing, especially on fisheries management and catch quotas, is likely to prove contentious and time consuming.
Political considerations in both Europe and Iceland may determine the pace. Accession requires the assent of all EU member states, and some member states want to tie institutional EU reforms to enlargement, a complex debate that may further delay things.
The timing of Iceland’s bid could also collide with a growing Euroskeptic mood in Europe—particularly should populist leaders opposed to enlargement come to power, such as Marine Le Pen, a frontrunner in France’s 2027 presidential election.
Icelanders themselves would still have the final say. If negotiations produced an accession treaty, another referendum would be held on whether to join the bloc. Opponents of enlargement in the country could whip up support to reject membership, or a future Icelandic government could hit pause on the process once again.
—James Batchik is deputy director at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
What might this mean for other candidate countries?
A rising tide lifts all boats, and momentum behind EU enlargement benefits all candidate countries. And the accession process can certainly use momentum—just ask the Western Balkans.
Montenegro’s accession bid notwithstanding, Western Balkan countries have waited years, and in some cases decades, for the EU to turn the accession promise into progress. In some cases, the EU and member states’ failure to provide effective leadership while shepherding Western Balkan countries into the political and economic union has veered the process close to malpractice.
Now, however, enlargement feels possible. EU leaders increasingly understand the importance of a Europe that is “whole and free.” They have partnered in earnest with Montenegro’s feisty and determined government to achieve the goal of counting the country as the EU’s twenty-eighth member by 2028.
Western Balkan countries should welcome Iceland’s bid. Each candidate country will rise and fall on its own merit, reforms, and political will. But the entrance of a new member would prove that the EU can successfully work the mechanics and politics of enlargement and, in doing so, strengthen Europe. That’s good news from the black-sand beaches of Reynisfjara to the Bay of Kotor.
—Amanda Thorpe is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
The Europe Center promotes leadership, strategies, and analysis to ensure a strong, ambitious, and forward-looking transatlantic relationship.
Image: President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir speak at a press conference on July 17, 2025. (Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect)