“There’s no doubt about the fact that this is a negative shock to growth,” Paul Sheard, executive vice president and chief global economist at S&P Global, said of the British referendum. “In many ways, it’s worse for the Eurozone than it is for the United Kingdom,” he added.
“In the West, there is this tendency to focus on the purge and how many people have lost their jobs. In Turkey, everybody is still shell-shocked about what happened on [July 15] and are picking up the pieces and trying to reconcile a very traumatic event in their history,” said Stein, a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
“The concern in Turkey is that unlike France, in particular, the legacy of strong democratic institutions is just not there,” he added.
The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeting in Seoul ended on June 24 without resolving India’s request to join the group. The final statement issued at the conclusion of the meeting lacked an explicit reference to India’s application to join or an outline for a future course of action. With the exceptional waiver granted by the NSG to India in 2008, membership in the group should have been a relatively straightforward decision. However, larger geopolitical factors contributed to the stalemate.
One of those convergent interests between team Trump and Putin may be Ukraine. As Josh Rogin reported in the Washington Post earlier this week, Trump staffers in Cleveland succeeded in browbeating delegates to water down GOP platform language, replacing a pledge to provide "lethal defensive weapons" to the Ukrainian military for the country's self-defense with the gentler, more ambiguous suggestion of "appropriate assistance."
Ukrainians have mounting questions and concerns.
For India, nuclear disarmament has always been an article of faith, arising from the country’s vision of a world without nuclear weapons and free of violence. Nonproliferation and arms control measures were the initial phase of disarmament, at best, and instruments of perpetual discrimination, at worst. The saga of India’s recent nuclear policy is one of idealism giving way to pragmatism and coming to terms with the reality that nuclear weapons shall continue to be central to the security doctrines of many nations.
Car Bomb Kills Prominent Journalist Pavel Sheremet in KyivIt is hard to believe that Pavel Sheremet is dead because he was so full of life. He was an exuberant man who loved life and everything in it. A dinner with Pavel was always a wonderful and lively affair, and he enjoyed the food and wine that went with the meal as well.
Yet, it is easy to understand that he was murdered. On July 20, the car he was driving exploded in Kyiv, Ukraine. The murder of Pavel is likely to be related to his work, Sevhil Musayeva-Borovyk, the chief editor of Ukrainska Pravda, said. Pavel, 44, had an outstanding record as a journalist for over two decades. He was one of the greatest muckraking journalists in three countries, his native Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. He was probably the best investigative reporter in the former Soviet Union and he felt no fear. Few have exposed so much corruption and so many misdeeds as Pavel. Little wonder that he was murdered or that the murder was highly professional.
Intelligence failures are always going to occur no matter how governments structure their intelligence networks, but this is only the latest in a series of policy failures in which governments have blamed their intelligence organizations. In this regard, the US record is stunning. We already know that the US government and intelligence services failed to grasp the planning for 9/11 or to understand the realities in Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion, including the absence of nuclear weapons there. Additionally, as former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates admitted, the Untied States failed to grasp the scope of China’s military buildup, and did not realize that Russia would attack Georgia in 2008.
More significantly, the United States missed the full nature of changes underway in the Russian military after 2008.
Our host, Philippe Auguin, the acclaimed music director of the Washington National Opera and the Kennedy Center Opera House Orchestra, had arranged for us to cross the security barricades to park in the garage of the Palais de la Méditerranée on our way to his concert. We were to give the police his name and room number, say we were registered with the hotel, and they would let us through. We arrived at the barricade about 7:30 p.m. and informed the policeman manning the portable metal “crowd barrier” (no more formidable barricades were in evidence anywhere) only that we were headed to the hotel. He let us right through. Were we “profiled” as white, American-accented, in a new car and therefore let in? Or was the security just that lax?
Violence began two weeks ago, as government and opposition forces clashed in the country’s capital, Juba. At least two hundred people, including two Chinese United Nations (UN) peacekeepers, were killed. A tenuous ceasefire is now in effect.
But one thing can be already said: the higher the expectations associated with a new leader, the more painful his or her downfall. A classic example is the case of President Viktor Yushchenko, who was the symbol of the Orange Revolution. In December 2004, he took 52 percent of the vote in the third round of the presidential election; by 2012, his party barely managed to capture one percent.