The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union will have a negative impact on the European economy because it creates uncertainty and decreases business confidence for the foreseeable future, according to the International Monetary Fund’s recently updated World Economic Outlook. Beyond uncertainty, experts contend that the outcome of the June 23 vote on a so-called Brexit highlights structural issues within the Eurozone that have prevented significant growth following the 2008 financial crisis.

“There’s no doubt about the fact that this is a negative shock to growth,” Paul Sheard, executive vice president and chief economist at S&P Global, said of the British referendum. “In many ways, it’s worse for the Eurozone than it is for the United Kingdom,” he added.

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The Turkish government’s crackdown on its opponents must be seen in the context of the trauma inflicted on the country as a result of the failed coup, but it must not come at the cost of the viability of democratic institutions, according to the Atlantic Council’s Aaron Stein.

“In the West, there is this tendency to focus on the purge and how many people have lost their jobs. In Turkey, everybody is still shell-shocked about what happened on [July 15] and are picking up the pieces and trying to reconcile a very traumatic event in their history,” said Stein, a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

“The concern in Turkey is that unlike France, in particular, the legacy of strong democratic institutions is just not there,” he added.

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The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeting in Seoul ended on June 24 without resolving India’s request to join the group. The final statement issued at the conclusion of the meeting lacked an explicit reference to India’s application to join or an outline for a future course of action. With the exceptional waiver granted by the NSG to India in 2008, membership in the group should have been a relatively straightforward decision. However, larger geopolitical factors contributed to the stalemate.

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When asked recently why he turned up in Moscow last December to help celebrate the tenth anniversary of RT, Michael Flynn rambled about wanting to deliver stern lectures to the Russians. The retired US Lt. Gen.—who now serves as foreign policy adviser to Republican nominee Donald J. Trump—was seated at a gala dinner next to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an interview with the Kremlin's propaganda arm, Flynn was anything but downbeat about bilateral ties: "interests...are converging," he assured RT journalist Sophie Shevardnadze; it's time "to move forward" together.

One of those convergent interests between team Trump and Putin may be Ukraine. As Josh Rogin reported in the Washington Post earlier this week, Trump staffers in Cleveland succeeded in browbeating delegates to water down GOP platform language, replacing a pledge to provide "lethal defensive weapons" to the Ukrainian military for the country's self-defense with the gentler, more ambiguous suggestion of "appropriate assistance."

Ukrainians have mounting questions and concerns.

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For India, nuclear disarmament has always been an article of faith, arising from the country’s vision of a world without nuclear weapons and free of violence. Nonproliferation and arms control measures were the initial phase of disarmament, at best, and instruments of perpetual discrimination, at worst. The saga of India’s recent nuclear policy is one of idealism giving way to pragmatism and coming to terms with the reality that nuclear weapons shall continue to be central to the security doctrines of many nations.

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Car Bomb Kills Prominent Journalist Pavel Sheremet in Kyiv 

It is hard to believe that Pavel Sheremet is dead because he was so full of life. He was an exuberant man who loved life and everything in it. A dinner with Pavel was always a wonderful and lively affair, and he enjoyed the food and wine that went with the meal as well.

Yet, it is easy to understand that he was murdered. On July 20, the car he was driving exploded in Kyiv, Ukraine. The murder of Pavel is likely to be related to his work, Sevhil Musayeva-Borovyk, the chief editor of Ukrainska Pravda, said. Pavel, 44, had an outstanding record as a journalist for over two decades. He was one of the greatest muckraking journalists in three countries, his native Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. He was probably the best investigative reporter in the former Soviet Union and he felt no fear. Few have exposed so much corruption and so many misdeeds as Pavel. Little wonder that he was murdered or that the murder was highly professional.

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A less-well known but vital outcome of NATO’s Warsaw summit was the Alliance’s decision to create an intelligence and security division from among its existing organizations. This move is long overdue. There is a plethora of threats facing Europe and the United States, and yet the West has a record of intelligence failures that has come to characterize its policy today. As media reports indicate, the Turkish coup caught virtually the entire US foreign policy establishment by surprise; analysts were writing up to the last moment that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s control over the military seemed secure.

Intelligence failures are always going to occur no matter how governments structure their intelligence networks, but this is only the latest in a series of policy failures in which governments have blamed their intelligence organizations. In this regard, the US record is stunning. We already know that the US government and intelligence services failed to grasp the planning for 9/11 or to understand the realities in Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion, including the absence of nuclear weapons there. Additionally, as former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates admitted, the Untied States failed to grasp the scope of China’s military buildup, and did not realize that Russia would attack Georgia in 2008.

More significantly, the United States missed the full nature of changes underway in the Russian military after 2008.

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The deadly attack in Nice on the evening of July 14 made clear the difficulty of preventing such lone-wolf acts of terrorism. But that doesn’t mean that nothing can or should be done. I was with my wife, Elizabeth, in the middle of the attack in Nice on the night when eighty-four people were killed and more than 300 injured after an assailant ploughed a cargo truck into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day on the Promenade des Anglais.

Our host, Philippe Auguin, the acclaimed music director of the Washington National Opera and the Kennedy Center Opera House Orchestra, had arranged for us to cross the security barricades to park in the garage of the Palais de la Méditerranée on our way to his concert. We were to give the police his name and room number, say we were registered with the hotel, and they would let us through. We arrived at the barricade about 7:30 p.m. and informed the policeman manning the portable metal “crowd barrier” (no more formidable barricades were in evidence anywhere) only that we were headed to the hotel. He let us right through. Were we “profiled” as white, American-accented, in a new car and therefore let in? Or was the security just that lax? 

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The African Union (AU) announced on July 19 that it will deploy a peacekeeping force to South Sudan, which recently descended into a new round of bloodletting, shortly after celebrating its fifth independence anniversary. 

Violence began two weeks ago, as government and opposition forces clashed in the country’s capital, Juba. At least two hundred people, including two Chinese United Nations (UN) peacekeepers, were killed. A tenuous ceasefire is now in effect.

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Ukraine is a relatively young country. Its political traditions are still developing and its electorate can still be easily beguiled by every new leader who promises to bring the nation out of the economic misery it was immersed in after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Ukraine is still desperately poor, ranked among the poorest countries in Europe.

But one thing can be already said: the higher the expectations associated with a new leader, the more painful his or her downfall. A classic example is the case of President Viktor Yushchenko, who was the symbol of the Orange Revolution. In December 2004, he took 52 percent of the vote in the third round of the presidential election; by 2012, his party barely managed to capture one percent.

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