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April 27, 2018

Upcoming:  NAFTA talks are continuing in Washington, DC with the negotiators hoping to reach a deal in the upcoming days.


HEADLINES
On the US side: In the meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are in town to talk trade, Iran, and tariffs with the Trump administration. President Trump announced the Secretary Mnuchin will be traveling to China for trade talks in the near future.
On the EU side: After the European Union and Mexico reached a new trade deal (which is a revision and deepening of their former agreement) earlier this week, Britain and the European Union announced that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will work together on how to minimize financial market turmoil in case Brexit negotiations fail.

SPOTLIGHT
From steel tariff exemptions expiring on May 1, to visits from both the German Chancellor and the French President, to ongoing NAFTA talks, to uncertainties regarding JCPOA renewal, to the Korean Summit, this week is a busy week. The Atlantic Council digs into these issues in the below  commentary.
 
From Steel Tariffs to an Awesome Trade Deal
By Frances Burwell

As tariff exemptions for the EU are set to expire on the first of May, Atlantic Council' Frances Burwell argues this moment is of strategic importance for the EU. She claims the EU can capitalize on the Trump administration’s expectation for states to bargain for tariff extensions by launching trade negotiations. Read the full analysis here.
 

It’s Merkel’s Turn: Phase Two of Europe’s Tag Team Effort With Trump 
By Jörn Fleck

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to meet with President Trump on Friday following France’s President Macron earlier this week. Both European leaders set out to Washington with the goal of changing Trump’s mind on the JCPOA. Atlantic Council's Joern Fleck argues "considering the list of contentious deals, deadlines, and personality differences, perhaps the best outcome on April 27 is an uneventful meeting—just the way Angela Merkel likes it.
 

Iran Sanctions and the Fate of the JCPOA: What’s at Stake if President Trump Fails to Renew the Sanctions Waivers? 
By David Mortlock

As the renewal of the JCPOA looms less than a month away, uncertainty remains regarding President Trump’s disposition towards renewing the agreement. If the deal is decertified and the sanctions are not waived, there could be vast consequences. Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow David Mortlock explores exactly what is at stake if the sanctions waiver is not renewed in this issue brief.

TRADE
Remarks: President Trump and President Macron of France at State Dinner, The White House
Speech: French President Emmanuel Macron Addresses U.S. Congress, Embassy of France to the US
Opinion:  Macron and Trump can Team Up on Trade, Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry, Bloomberg
Official Press Release: European Commission and European Stability Mechanism Lay down Principles of Cooperation, European Commission
Analysis: The NAFTA Endgame Strategy, William A. Reinsch, CSIS
Podcast: Trade Talks Episode 32: Trump, China, and Tariffs: $3 billion, $50 billion, or $100 billion? Peterson Institute for International Economics
News: Germany Braced for Imposition of US Steel Tariffs, Guy Chazan and Neil Hume, Financial Times
Opinion: Donald Trump is Right: China Must Play by the Rules, Jamil Anderlini, Financial Times
Analysis:  The WTO Still Considers China a ‘Developing Nation’. Here’s the Big Problem with That, Simon Lester and Huan Zhu, CNBC
Analysis: This Rural Wisconsin County is Famous in China. A Trade War Could Take it All Away, Caitlin Dewey, Washington Post
Opinion: Trump’s Gamble for Quick Trade Deal with China May be a Long Shot, Bloomberg
Analysis: The Biggest NAFTA Hurdle Now May Congress, Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, New York Times 
Report: NAFTA Briefing: Review of Current NAFTA Proposals and Potential Impacts on the North American Automotive Industry, Kristin Dziczek, Center for Automotive Research
Analysis: As Merkel Visits US, Germany’s Trade Surplus Isn’t the Problem, Simon Nixon, Wall Street Journal
Opinion: A Swiss Template for The Irish Border, Mark Burges Watson, Financial Times
News: EU Ready to Give UK a Say on Trade in Customs Union, Ian Wishart, Bloomberg
Analysis: The Art of Someone Else’s Deal- Europe and Mexico, Wall Street Journal 


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK

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GLOBALIZATION

Issue Brief: Fintech: Powering Inclusive Growth in Africa, Aleksandra Gadzala, Atlantic Council
Report: The Work Ahead- Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century, Edward Alden and Laura Taylor-Kale, Council on Foreign Relations
Analysis: Networked Geopolitics- Global Networks as both Metaphor and Repository of Power, Joseph Verbovszky, American Academy in Berlin
Speech: DG Azevêdo Opens Symposium on Link Between Trade and Natural DisastersWorld Trade Organization
Opinion: The Digital Economy is Disrupting our Old Models, Diane Coyle, Financial Times
Opinion: Regulating Virtual Currencies and ICOs, The Economist
Opinion: Crypto Money Laundering, The Economist
Report: How Artificial Intelligence is Transforming the World, Darrell M. West and John R. Allen, Brookings Institute


WHAT WE ARE READING

Opinion: The EU Should get Tough on its Illiberal Democracies, The Economist
Graphic: How Much Would You Pay to Keep Using GoogleThe Economist
Opinion: For Farmers in the Developing World, Geography is Not Destiny, The Economist
Opinion: Armenians Deliver a Blow to Putin’s Model, Washington Post


UPCOMING EVENTS

May 2: The Future of Trade in U.S.-Japan RelationsBrookings Institute
May 3: Borders vs. Barriers: Navigating Uncertainty in the US Business EnvironmentAtlantic Council
May 9: Spiraling US-China Trade Tensions: What are the Implications for Latin AmericaAtlantic Council
May 10: Having a Stake: The Potential of Employee Share Ownership for Workers and BusinessesAspen Institute US Chamber of Commerce


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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