TRADE in ACTION|Building a transatlantic marketplace

March 23, 2018


HEADLINES
On the EU side:
 The European Commission released a new draft transition agreement with the United Kingdom Monday which will be discussed in the European Council meeting later this week.
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom came to DC this week to continue her campaign for EU exclusion from President Trump’s tariffs. 
On the US side: 
The US Department of Commerce has announced their steel and aluminium tariff exclusion process but experts fear it will be messy as exclusions will be made on a company-by-company basis rather than by product. Politico reports that President Donald Trump is expected by Thursday to announce a plan to hit China with tariffs, investment restrictions, and potentially other trade limits. In the meanwhile, President Trump has officially asked Congress to extend his trade promotion authority which allows him to negotiate free trade agreements that he can submit to Congress under fast track approval procedures.
Global: 
The G20 summit took place in Buenos Aires, with the world’s financial leaders heavily criticizing protectionism, urging for increased dialogue on trade, but failing to defuse the threat of a trade war. On a positive note: on Wednesday 44 African nations signed a pact establishing a free trade area seen as vital to the continent’s economic development.

SPOTLIGHT
EconoGraphic: 
Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency: Should OFAC be Petrofied?
Atlantic Council 

The short answer is no.

On March 19, the Trump administration issued an executive order that compounded previous sanctions on Venezuela and the Maduro regime. The decision on Monday to ban the use of Venezuela’s Petro, a state-maintained cryptocurrency, was primarily meant to deter sanctions evasion via cryptocurrency. In addition to deterring Venezuelan sanctions evasion, the executive order also sends a signal to any future attempts to use cryptocurrency to circumvent US sanctions. There has been confusion and misinformation abound, as even the Venezuelan government seems unsure of how the Petro would work in practice. In an effort to cut through the noise, the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics program published its latest EconoGraphic about this subject. 

SPOTLIGHT

Brexit Article: Full Speed Ahead to Brexit?
Atlantic Council

On Monday, March 19 the EU and UK made headway in the Brexit negotiation process as they released a draft transition deal indicating progress in certain parts of the negotiations. The agreement also provided much-needed clarity, particularly to the business sector as it establishes a transition period between March 2019 and December 2020 during which time the UK will remain in the single market. The European Council will have to ratify the deal at its meeting on March 23. In our recent blog post “Full speed ahead to Brexit?”, Atlantic Council experts answer the questions: why is the deal so important? What’s (not) in the deal? And what's the path ahead?

TRADE
SpeechDG Azevêdo in India: Flexibility is the Essential Ingredient for the Global Trading System, WTO 
NewsTrump Asks Congress to Extend His Trade Negotiating Authority, Pete Kasperowicz, Washington Examiner
NewsU.S. Department of Commerce Announces Steel and Aluminum Tariff Exclusion ProcessU.S. Department of Commerce            
NewsU.S. Names Key Partners That May Avoid Metals Tariffs for Now, William Mauldin, The Wall Street Journal  
Analysis: A New TTIP is the Way to Ease the EU-US Trade Conflict, Simon Lester, The National Interest 
InterviewEU's Katainen Says Chances of Trade Negotiation With U.S. Look BrighterBloomberg
AnalysisTrump is About to Launch a Trade War with No Way Out, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times
AnalysisIs a Trade War the Only Option? An Alternative Approach to Taking On China,  Daniel Rosen, Foreign Policy  
NewsG20 Sees Need for 'Dialogue,' Fails to Defuse Trade War Threat, Anthony Boadle, David Lawder, Reuters
AnalysisGlobal Trade is Under Serious Threat. How Should we Respond?, Eric Chaney, Institut Montaigne 
NewsTrump's China Trade Spat Stirs Little Concern in Stock Market, Lu Wang and Gregory Calderone, Bloomberg
AnalysisTariffs Were Killing New Zealand’s Economy. Free Trade Turned It Around., Patrick Tyrrell, The Daily Signal 
OpinionProtectionists Agree: Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Will Leave Us Worse Off, Colin Grabow, Cato Institute
AnalysisThe Last American Keg Company Says Tariffs Come With Unintended Consequences, Lizzie O'Leary, Marketplace  
VideoWays and Means Chairman Brady Interviews USTR Lighthizer on the US Trade Policy Agenda, Focus on ISDS, C-Span  
AnalysisQuestion Time on Trade, John G. Murphy, US Chamber of Commerce 
AnalysisThe Annual Economic Report of the President Annotated and Explained, Monica de Bolle and Melina Kolb, Peterson Institute for International Economics  
OpinionSevering NAFTA Ties Harms Much More than Trade, Earl Anthony Wayne, The Hill
NewsAfrican Nations Sign Largest Free Trade Agreement Since WTO, Ignatius Ssuuna, The Washington Post


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK

Did you know...that a possible trade war could cause a negative shock to global GDP of about 1-3 percentage points? Read more here


GLOBALIZATION

Press Release: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Calls for G20 Policies to Make Growth More Resilient and More Widely SharedIMF 
OpinionEU Digital Levy: Tax Value, Not Sales, Financial Times 
Infographic
China is Seeking to Become a “Cyber Superpower”Economist
Analysis
40 Years of Data Suggests 3 Myths about Globalization, Lucas Chancel, Harvard Business Review
Opinion
Globalization has Created a Chinese Monster, Emile Simpson, Foreign Policy
Analysis
Is Globalization a Double-Edged Sword in Healthcare?, Michal Lev-Ram, Fortune
Opinion
Globalization Isn’t Down for the Count, Michael Schuman, Bloomberg
Automation:
 Automation and the 2030 Job Hunt, Irving Wladawsky-Berger, Wall Street Journal
Analysis
Facebook’s Surveillance Machine, Zeynep Tufekci, New York Times
Opinion
The Problem Is Facebook, Not Cambridge Analytica, Leonid Bershidksky, Bloomberg


WHAT WE ARE READING

ReportU.S. Commerce and Europe: A Country-by-Country Comparison, in The Transatlantic Economy 2018, Daniel S. Hamilton, and Joseph P. Quinlan, CTR
InfographicConstellations of State FragilityGerman Development Institute
Analysis
A New Deal for the Twenty-First Century, Edward Alden, and Robert E. Litan, CFR
Report
Clean Power is Shaking Up the Global Geopolitics of EnergyThe Economist
Opinion
We Need an Economics of Belonging, Martin Sandbu, Financial Times
Analysis
EU Grapples With Trump Problem as US Relations Turn Sour, Alex Barker, Jim Brunsden, and Shawn Donnan, Financial Times


UPCOMING EVENTS

March 22: The Future of Infrastructure Policy Under the Trump Administration: Remarks from Department of Transportation Under Secretary Derek KanAEI
March 23:  
AI Will Affect Jobs. What About the Rest of the Global Political Economy?Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
March 28:
Getting Ready for the GDPR: What your Company Needs to Know About GDPR-the New Data Protection Regulation in the European UnionEuropean American Chamber of Commerce
March 28:
Defending Intellectual Property: Is Section 337 the Right AnswerCSIS
April 3: 
Blended Finance and Aligning Private Investment with Global Development - Report LaunchCSIS
April 9:
Italy’s Threat to the EuroAEI
​​​​April 10:  
The Work Ahead: Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First CenturyCFR
April 24:
An Update on the Transatlantic RelationshipEuropean American Chamber of Commerce


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Alexatrini Tsiknia, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council 
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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Did you know...that a possible trade war could cause a negative shock to global GDP of about 1-3 percentage points? Read more here

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