Dr. Thomas Fingar, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), discussed the new report “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” The report analyzes the global situation 15 to 20 years in the future, touching on international security, political and social trends, globalization, and other transnational issues.
Fingar’s speech was the latest in the Atlantic Council’s Global Intelligence Series.
Fingar said the purpose of the report was not to make concrete predictions, but rather to stimulate strategic thinking about how trends will evolve in the future. He stressed the importance of leadership, which is perhaps the most influential driver of future events and global interactions. Demography, Fingar said, is one of the more certain aspects about 2025. By that year, the world will have 1.4 billion more people, only 3 percent of whom will be from the West. Thus, Asia and the Middle East will be younger, while Europe, Japan, and even China manage aging populations.
Another major focus of Fingar’s comments was the future of the international institutions established after World War II like the UN and IMF. He said that several of these institutions need to be reformed in order to effectively manage world crises and political relations, but many developing countries are unwilling or unable to take on a greater burden. Lastly, Fingar talked about terrorism in 2025, stating that the threat will probably be smaller in magnitude but more lethal in capability.
Watch Video:
C-SPAN (52 minutes)
Read Transcript
Participants:
- Dr. Thomas Fingar – Chairman, National Intelligence Council
- Frederick Kempe – President and CEO, Atlantic Council
Media Coverage:
- Global trends and U.S. economic recovery – Leslie Davis, Examiner
- By 2025, Analysts Say U.S. Won’t Be World Power – Tom Gjelten, NPR “Morning Edition”
- NIC Chairman Thomas Fingar Presents “Global Trends 2025” – Baltische Rundschau (Lithuania)
Related Commentary on New Atlanticist Blog:
- Predicting the Future is Hard – And Necessary – James Joyner
- U.S. Dominance Ending – James Joyner
- Terrorism Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? – James Joyner
- Asia’s Ascendency Seen in Intelligence Forecast – Joseph Snyder
- Climate Change Will be More Severe in 2025 –Erica McCarthy
- Economic Rise of the East – James O’Connor
Related Event:
Image: ThomasFingar.jpg